Commodity Marketing Thread

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I apologize for interupting your regularly scheduled Covid debate, but there seems to be some commodity marketing news worth discussing.

With all grains up significantly today, along with oil and most other commodities, I see palm oil is leading the pack. Up over 30% since its December lows, New highs almost daily, up over 3% again today. Soyoil going up almost daily, not back to its recent highs yet, but clearly back into an uptrend. Both seem to be dragging canola along, but as farming101 pointed out, crush margins are poor or even negative, so it's fortunes are likely tied to the price of other vegetable oils.

No single news event that seems to be responsible. Some of the south american damage appears to be baked in regardless of weather now. I'm hearing that palmoil as a subsititute for dairy worldwide is growing due to high prices. Biodiesel.

So what is still unknown that could keep driving this market? Too early to trade a drought in western Canada, our crop size supposedly confirmed. SA weather possibly improving, too late for some areas though.

What do the charts indicate now?

[mcfarms]

Yes palm has sure been on a tear, combination of lack of workers and plantations getting old. but its also like the crude thing increasing pressure on that product from ESG groups.

[fjlip]

It's Friday, profit taking? Oops counter normal? Now what? majority priced maybe...

[agstar77]

It's Friday, profit taking? Oops counter normal? Now what? majority priced maybe...

Scared to have a position over the weekend because of world events. Sold some beans at 16.50 yesterday 17 today Wow.

[blackpowder]

It has been quite the year.
No wrong answers at these prices, but we still need top third to stay in game.
Hard to do this year if followed usual program 😔
I'm still relying on seasonal trends but concerned this year.

[tubs]

sold most of my production at alltime high prices I think there is a lot of funds playing the market and would hate to be on the wrong side of that. Zero sold for the new cropyear we are still in a major drought little snow to speak of.

[GDR]

Perhaps the uncertainty of the stock market has shifted some investment to commodities as seen as more stable.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It has been quite the year.
No wrong answers at these prices, but we still need top third to stay in game.
Hard to do this year if followed usual program 😔
I'm still relying on seasonal trends but concerned this year.

I almost always count on seasonal trends. Holding off until late spring and even into middle of summer to market all of my crops. This year I am somewhat ahead of that schedule. I still think we may make new highs in that period, but I would hate to think I turned down these prices if we get a good start to the growing season, as does the rest of the world, and the economic situation deteriorates. The downside could be relentless in that case, regardless of local shortages of old crop.
Looking at the pace of movement so far, I can't imagine where grains are going to come from to fill the demand in the last half of the year. The crushers and exporters might just shut down, but actual end users don't get that option.
Can't import corn to replace everything.
Feed Mill here was buying number one canola at market price last year for animal feed. Not much off spec canola this year, and there won't be much number one left for the rest of the year, what do they use now?

[TOM4CWB]

No single news event that seems to be responsible. (You missed the Indonesian decision Thursday on exports of Palm Oil)

Primary to the Soy complex up hard is the Indonesian export restrictions put on yesterday…

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Exports to Ease Only Slightly Despite Curbs
Bloomberg
Eko Listiyorini, Bloomberg News
11h ago
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s palm oil exports may drop by just 1 million tons this year, according to a top industry group, a sign that the government’s latest policy to cool prices will not significantly crimp overseas shipments.
Exports by the top oil palm grower could fall 3% to 33.2 million tons this year, said the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki. That’s because its consumption of the tropical oil for food and biodiesel is expected to rise.
While the forecast doesn’t yet take into account the latest export rule that requires companies to allocate 20% of shipments to the local market, Gapki said it doesn’t expect the policy to affect overseas volumes.
“The policy may disrupt exports in February but total exports may not decline much,” Togar Sitanggang, vice chairman of Gapki, said by phone. By March, exporters would have adjusted their volumes to comply with the rule, he said.
Palm oil, the world’s most consumed edible oil, extended a surge to a fresh record after Indonesia announced the policy on Thursday. Prices have climbed about 60% in the past year, driven by a severe labor crunch in Malaysia, the second-biggest grower, as well as tight vegetable oil supplies globally.
Gapki estimates that domestic consumption of palm oil will rise 12% this year to 20.6 million tons. This includes 8.8 million tons for its biodiesel mandate. “

Cheers

[furrowtickler]

We are waiting and watching the Hrsw . We were planning on selling 1/2 in early December but other circumstances delayed us then it dropped
It has picked up recently other than that one day drop
We have a number in mind but they continuously increase the basis. It’s at $2.60 a bus right now which is criminal, but I guess the signal is they dont want it yet .

$2.60 at 40 bus / ac is over $100 / ac .... that’s insane but shows the market does not need wheat at all I guess yet

[SASKFARMER]

Palm is going to be what to watch.

Next canola sale might be $25.00

[farming101]

We are waiting and watching the Hrsw . We were planning on selling 1/2 in early December but other circumstances delayed us then it dropped
It has picked up recently other than that one day drop
We have a number in mind but they continuously increase the basis. It’s at $2.60 a bus right now which is criminal, but I guess the signal is they dont want it yet .

$2.60 at 40 bus / ac is over $100 / ac .... that’s insane but shows the market does not need wheat at all I guess yet

Hope I am not misunderstanding your comment - Basis in the wheats (except durum) is added to the futures price.
Example today locally: March delivery $11.86 CAD

So, MW March is 9.20 plus 2.66 basis = 11.86CAD

The currency exchange is in the basis

Chart shows basis changes since the start of the crop year for NW Sask

[Partners]

RP in yorkton. Targets hitting for $19.25 November..

[checking]

Scared to have a position over the weekend because of world events. Sold some beans at 16.50 yesterday 17 today Wow.

Good on you, Agstar. I wondered if anyone had any left.

Took 290mt jag out of inventory for Apr-May delivery on a lark target of 17.25 yesterday, and it sprung. If supply chain holds up we will be eating steak instead of beans come springtime.

[agstar77]

Good on you, Agstar. I wondered if anyone had any left.

Took 290mt jag out of inventory for Apr-May delivery on a lark target of 17.25 yesterday, and it sprung. If supply chain holds up we will be eating steak instead of beans come springtime.

We are 50% sold. Probably should have sold wheat at 13 got greedy.