Oat Futures Sell Signal

[wheatking16]

Sell Signal for full or partial production

https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/p/oat-futures-sell-signal

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Not many markets offer that many opportunities to sell at record highs. It has bounced along up here for most of 2 months. It seems like most of these parabolic markets only spend a session or two at such heights before gravity sets in. Although on a monthly chart, I suppose this will look more like that.

Do you differentiate between overnight markets in your charts? It seems like there are some wild swings on low volume that often have no relation to how the market behaves during the day session.

[wheatking16]

Not many markets offer that many opportunities to sell at record highs. It has bounced along up here for most of 2 months. It seems like most of these parabolic markets only spend a session or two at such heights before gravity sets in. Although on a monthly chart, I suppose this will look more like that.

Do you differentiate between overnight markets in your charts? It seems like there are some wild swings on low volume that often have no relation to how the market behaves during the day session.

I don't differentiate between the overnight markets, although the volume can be low and affect the analysis.

My thesis is that it is more important to focus on the closing price.

[farming101]

Cash milling oat prices higher than ever. Pushing $700/t

[TOM4CWB]

Cash milling oat prices higher than ever. Pushing $700/t
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I am tempted to look for a triple top... with oat production so low in 2021! only a double top so far... a healthy re-tracement can actually be positive, long way from seeding... let alone harvest 2022!!!

Happy Farming 2022!

Merry Christmas... the 'pandemic volatility' influence... adds extra tolerance for market larger moves.

[wheatking16]

I am tempted to look for a triple top... with oat production so low in 2021! only a double top so far... a healthy re-tracement can actually be positive, long way from seeding... let alone harvest 2022!!!

Happy Farming 2022!

Merry Christmas... the 'pandemic volatility' influence... adds extra tolerance for market larger moves.

And double tops and double bottoms often break in the direction of the trend.

If and when are amongst the unknowns.

It is a fascinating time.

[TechAnalyst]

I would like to add another chart for your consideration.

It is the Commitment of Traders - Futures Positions for Oats for the past year.

The red bars are the Commercial Traders net position, the blue bars are the Large Traders net positions and the yellow bars represent the Small Spec net positions.

I point this out because it is very unusual. As you can see, the rally in oats this fall was fueled by commercial buying while the small specs sold into it. They are now actually net short.

With small specs known to be notoriously wrong and the commercials buying into the rally instead of selling into it, one might assume the current setback should be a bull market correction vs a top. We shall see.

Just one more clue in a complex puzzle...

[wheatking16]

Sell Signal for full or partial production

https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/p/oat-futures-sell-signal

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We got the bounce to the area of the 713 and the 50 DMA as anticipated with the price now currently at 677.

Today’s price is battling the blue VWAP from the September 9 low.

VWAP levels often attract buyers to get a bounce here into the 50 DMA.

Notice the confluence of the 50 DMA and my 713 price level identified in the December 01 newsletter.

I anticipate this 713 level to act as resistance giving producers another opportunity to sell at a higher level.

[wheatking16]

Oats look terrible but could slow down or get a bounce in the 584-598 range.

[Old Cowzilla]

More Oat acres in western Canada this spring than have been seen for years. Somebody mentioned that to the grain traders. Anything over a contract bu. won't be worth 3 bucks at harvest and you better have 40 lb. good and dry oats. There stuck my neck out !

[farming101]

Cash quotes Jan 14 700/t+

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Cash quotes Jan 14 700/t+

I Don't follow oats. But over at NewAgTalk, there is a thread asking what oats knows.

This was one of the responses:
I could argue oats doesn't even know oats. The cash price has actually gone up while the futures price dropped a dollar.

[shtferbrains]

I Don't follow oats. But over at NewAgTalk, there is a thread asking what oats knows.

This was one of the responses:
I could argue oats doesn't even know oats. The cash price has actually gone up while the futures price dropped a dollar.

Definently putting a little of the fear element into the market of late.

I guess that would be fear of bears?

[errolanderson]

In the old 'open outcry days' of Chicago grain trading and price discovery, floor traders paid attention to a sudden change in oat futures by the one (1) oat trader standing between two rails on the CBOT floor.

Oats is generally devoid of speculators, a true cash market indication. A canary in the coalmine, so-to-say.

[LWeber]

In the old 'open outcry days' of Chicago grain trading and price discovery, floor traders paid attention to a sudden change in oat futures by the one (1) oat trader standing between two rails on the CBOT floor.

Oats is generally devoid of speculators, a true cash market indication. A canary in the coalmine, so-to-say.

That one oat trader owned a Lear Jet and he didn't stand - he sat off to the side in a chair with hsi arms crossed from 9:25 to 1:20. There were never more than 5-10 oat traders in the open outcry pit and a good chance half of them were carrying his orders. That was then - this is now...

If you believe that Oat futures are indicative of the cash market; what companies use CME Oat futures to price their cash bids?