Canola

[Guest]

Commercial stocks have been 1.5 MMT+ since the middle of Oct.
Also Australia big canola shipping months are Nov - Apr.
A couple of fundamentals

should we be worried , in your opinion?

[farming101]

There will be shortages of canola and canola products.
How many importers are willing to pay the new very high price and how many importers can substitute?
Bean oil will be the oil of choice for much of the world to replace canola oil.
Aussie canola coming to market will help satisfy that smaller demand for several months to come.
Thankfully our largest canola products customer is directly south which will support prices.
I would be wary of thinking this is all just speculators fooling with the market.
It could be indicating the need to rejig veg oil sources has begun.
BC floods have not helped either

[wheatking16]

No need to worry yet.......

The January contract is still above the high at 949 as well as the rising 50 DMA.




The March contract is also above the 50 DMA and 924 high.

[TOM4CWB]

No need to worry yet.......

The January contract is still above the high at 949 as well as the rising 50 DMA.

[ATTACH]9295[/ATTACH]


The March contract is also above the 50 DMA and 924 high.

[ATTACH]9296[/ATTACH]

Black Swan events just increase volatility...

The commodity markets today clearly should have settled the Variant Pandemic relevance to marketing our crops.

Jan22Canola had a high yesterday of $1056.40 and a low today of $975.50 caused by this 'Black Swan' event called [C] the pandemic.... IMHO that is not even close to being over.

This issue [C] is a simple indicator that it obviously does cause and will cause more major disruptions to our food security and food supply chains. Volatility this great... should not go un noticed... as the flooding in BC disrupting food security supplies and energy.

Emotion and Fear breed wild markets... both up and down... not logical...fundamentals change market directions... !!! the threat of 145mmt of soy new crop Brazil... should be a cold bath reminder... that trends do change... when fundamentals like the Aussie Canola crop supply threatening to top this market...

It aint over till its over... but cast iron guts may be required!!!! This horse [should have said Bull] looks like a good bucker... but when the ride is done... the ground is still hard!

Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

Just saw Bloomberg on Russia...

8% inflation.. 7.5% interest rates likely to go up 1% in Dec.

They Blame the west for the rise in inflation....

Drop in Rubble has been good for exports... business wants to devalue Rubble even more... good for oil and gas, as well as grain exports...said Russia would not attack Ukraine so no need to worry about more Russian sanctions...

US Fed Powell has dropped 'transitory inflation' and is moving up interest rate increases next year... and dropping tapering sooner... caused market disruptions yesterday...[Powell before congress]

Cheers

[TASFarms]

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100660578

Should help canola price
Big crop. Oopse where

[AlbertaFarmer5]

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100660578

Should help canola price
Big crop. Oopse where

As per the article, the farmers don't have enough storage so they can't continue harvesting. And I would doubt many would be set up with aeration and monitoring to store such a volatile crop as rained on sprouted canola heading into the hottest time of the year, even if they do have some storage.
So how much of it will shatter out at high temperatures before they find a solution?
I also just learned that receival is an actual word. I had to look it up I assumed it was a typo. One of the only examples Google found was Australian grain elevators.

[shtferbrains]

Nasty looking swaths and sprouted seed. Not what you want in outside piles under a tarp. Hot temp really weather's stuff quick. We don't see that up here. Ours can lay for weeks or months often.

Aussie canola is all non-GMO?

May go to specialty markets?

The plant quoted says they do some biofuels.

[Guest]

and instead of printing the article about all the rain soaked aussie crops , the WESTERN PRODUCER prints this ;

https://www.producer.com/news/australia-estimates-record-wheat-harvest/?module=under-carousel&pgtype=section&i=

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Aussie canola is all non-GMO?
.

A quick Google search indicates it has been approved federally since 2003, and South Australia was the last provincial holdout, now approved as of 2021. As usual, Austranada does not know what he's talking about.