Drought S.A.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

From Micheal Cordonnier:
Argentina:
The forecast is calling for a few scattered showers this week, but overall, rainfall is expected to remain below normal for the next 10-15 days which could lead to declines in soil moisture and stress the germination of corn and soybeans.

The latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) forecast for Argentina does not look promising. It shows hot and dry conditions across the major production regions of Argentina throughout the growing season. The biggest moisture deficit is forecasted for December and January, which is also forecasted to have the highest temperatures. The combination of heat and dryness could lead to significant stress for corn and soybeans.

Brazil short term forecast - Rainfall last week and over the weekend favored southern and western Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and areas of southern Brazil. The rains in central Brazil helped to improve the soil moisture and there are more rains in the forecast. Central Brazil is forecasted to receive ample rainfall this week, which if verified, will go a long way to replenishing the depleted soil moisture.

Brazil long term forecast - The latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) forecast for the months of November-December-January-February in Brazil generally shows relatively favorable conditions for crops in the major growing areas, with near normal rainfall in Mato Grosso and above normal rainfall in northeastern Brazil. The forecast shows the potential for dryness in southern Brazil, which could lead to crop stress.

Shortages and delays in inputs are a recurring theme in his reports. And escalating costs

[furrowtickler]

Was a feed contract they switched for us if we never sprayed .
So basically just paid the spread like you pointed out
That’s why we just swathed instead of spraying it and taking the feed contract price .
No real spec oak deal just gave us the option over the feed contract is all basically.

[makar]

Worked out to $1.90 over feed
Interesting what maltsters will pay when they have too
Even oats , look at what they are willing to pay
And absolutely guarantee they still making money at other end

Local rp is 1.85 malt over feed, so 5 cents no spray premium?

[furrowtickler]

They pay extra for non roundup sprayed barley?
How much?

Worked out to $1.90 over feed
Interesting what maltsters will pay when they have too
Even oats , look at what they are willing to pay
And absolutely guarantee they still making money at other end

They pay extra for non roundup sprayed barley?
How much?

Malt over feed

[hedgehog]

Mother Nature did harvest management this year in a vast majority of western Canada .
Natural dry down for most of the cereals , swathed the barley here .
Perfect fall to do weed management after harvest
Got a nice premium on the barley for malt for not being sprayed over feed .

They pay extra for non roundup sprayed barley?
How much?

[furrowtickler]

The latest I could find




Like you said it’s early in their season so lots can change yet

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks for that. Still lingering effects of the ongoing drought. I am more interested in the current situation as it would affect crop production. As far as I know, it is still much too early to be affecting crops in most places.

[furrowtickler]

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Where are you seeing details about a South America drought already?

I see there is a likely La Nina which would mean probable drought in SA. But are conditions as of today a concern yet?

Who do you follow or what source do you use for information on SA conditions? I check Kory Melby occasionally, and he's not saying much about drought.