StatsCan Report

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Barley still predicted at 7.8 mmt. down from over 10. So only a 25% reduction? I find this optimistic. Overall I would think the numbers will be smaller going forward, the only question is how much.

We are probably better off in the long term if all of the bullish news isn't released now into the depth of harvest pressure, where this news would be overwhelmed by seasonal selling pressure.
If The reality of the situation is not publicized until the typical post harvest price recovery period, it will just be fuel to the fire.
While on the other hand, it would be hard to believe that any of the major market participants wouldn't already know the reality on the ground. They're really shouldn't be many speculators in The barley market considering that there is no futures market. Just producers and end users, and a few Middle Men. I Don't know of any brokers that speculate.

[Old Cowzilla]

If there was a barley crop why so much advertising that unit trains of corn coming into Canada to be resold to ranchers.?

Does imported corn identify as barley production to statscan?

Crop ins. adjusted mine at 15 bu. when I baled it. My neighbors barley next door which I thought looked better was combined yielding a whopping 8 bu.

[SASKFARMER]

I said it before and I will say it again from someone who actually did a crop tour and actually has grown canola since the 70s on our farm the total production number is





12.7 or lower.

Not a satellite just boots on the ground.

[bucket]

Estimating a crop once the combine roll is not or shouldn't be rocket science for the people in government.

If you look at a 5 year average in canola as an example. And guys say their yield is off 60 percent or the y are getting 40 percent of average..

21MMT times 0.4 equals 8.4MMt . Do I think we are that low , its getting closer to that every day and any estimate over 14MMT is manipulation of the market and should be investigated as such.

When Statscan or agcanda can buffer the numbers 2 years after the fact , the system isn't working.

My guess would be by 2023 , this current drought holds, Canada will be importing more than just canola.

Disclaimer by the dumbphuckled farmer: An inch of rain does not cure a drought!!!!!!

[furrowtickler]

Estimating a crop once the combine roll is not or shouldn't be rocket science for the people in government.

If you look at a 5 year average in canola as an example. And guys say their yield is off 60 percent or the y are getting 40 percent of average..

21MMT times 0.4 equals 8.4MMt . Do I think we are that low , its getting closer to that every day and any estimate over 14MMT is manipulation of the market and should be investigated as such.

When Statscan or agcanda can buffer the numbers 2 years after the fact , the system isn't working.

My guess would be by 2023 , this current drought holds, Canada will be importing more than just canola.

Disclaimer by the dumbphuckled farmer: An inch of rain does not cure a drought!!!!!!

Excellent post and very accurate, well said