Fast Moving Incoming Recession . . . .

[errolanderson]

Noticeable jump in U.S. mortgage foreclosures. And rate hikes haven’t even begun according to bankers.

[Chief]

Skippy has been fallowing in daddy PET’s shadow. He has already used the emergency measures act. How long before we see a national energy policy and wage and price controls?

This is the guy who told sophie before his liberal leadership acceptance speech, this is my destiny.

I have to correct my last paragraph. After more on line searches I discovered that skippy’s conversation with sophie happened before the charity patrick brazeau fight. It still emphasizes his narcissistic personality.

[errolanderson]

Here we go . . . Mortgage rates up, affordability down. Foreclosures jump . . . .

Inventory of new U.S. homes now the highest since August, 2008 . . . . This downturn in real estate might be measured in years.

[errolanderson]

Yield inversion as short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates stateside. This is seen as a precursor of a recession.

Stock market’s recent recovery may be supported by funds and pensions rebalancing portfolios for end of quarter. April market may be a test for equities.

Bank of Canada says consumer’s bank account just fine and they plan to hike away.

[shtferbrains]

Do you recall seeing this much volatility in commodities Errol?
Who is trading that market to get the huge swings almost daily?

[jazz]

Inflation will be a self correcting phenomenon this time. Some marginal rate hikes will trickle down but companies and individuals will do it themselves this time. Individual recessions, some main street pain but nobody cares. I mean they didnt care during covid that people lost their jobs. Stock market kept chugging right along.

I predict this will be a nothing burger to the powers that be. On a personal level, the pain will be more acute, but nobody wil care.

[errolanderson]

Do you recall seeing this much volatility in commodities Errol?
Who is trading that market to get the huge swings almost daily?

Funds and pensions trying to stay ahead of inflation has been a key driver of this volatility. This might be the most dangerous time economically. The ‘buy the dippers’ aren’t having much success as money printing days have expired and now untimely rate hikes.

My opinion, watch out for a fast break in the real estate market. It may be just a few weeks away. Central banks and builders say it’s fine . . . It ain’t. Housing shortage can become a housing surplus in-a-blink when buyers run-for-cover. For those with cash, foreclosures may again produce opportunity. This may trigger a ripple affect across the economy, including generous price discounts. Central bank policy is now driving economies into recession. And buyers paying over-ask with no inspections, that’s a bubble peak . . . .

Inflation will get cut down at-the-knees when consumer demand destruction picks up. It’s definitely an incoming recession IMO). The question now is how deep and how long?

[mcfarms]

This fast moving incoming recession thread was started last August, is there a fast moving incoming glacier I should be watching out for as well?

[shtferbrains]

Commodity board off bigly with WTI down -$8 early.
Peace talks held in Turkey today with compromises offered.

[errolanderson]

Lockdown around Shanghai staggered until April 5th last report. Contributing to fallout.

Technically , gold is most heavily overbought, followed by crude oil, gasoline, corn and soybeans. RSI > 70

[shtferbrains]

Do most ETF grain commodities funds take both long and short positions?
Are some more known as short sellers?

[errolanderson]

Do most ETF grain commodities funds take both long and short positions?
Are some more known as short sellers?

Yes, they will build both long and short positions. Technicals are the steering wheel. Grains are just another widget for fund money to trade. But fund activity given the huge trading volume can push markets too high (overbought), to too low ( oversold).

[errolanderson]

Open interest also a key indicator. Open interest was still rising in corn / soybeans last week, but no so sure after today. Wheat open interest is now declining, a technical warning that the price top may be in.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

This fast moving incoming recession thread was started last August, is there a fast moving incoming glacier I should be watching out for as well?

There is a joke here at the expense of He Who shall not be mentioned because has has been demoted to the Childrens forum, but I will resist. He had a recurring theme about fast advancing glaciers and ice age.

[shtferbrains]

But profit or loss from wild swings both ways maybe on the same day?