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Canola Crop estimated at 19.0 MMT

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    Canola Crop estimated at 19.0 MMT

    Trying to find the genius on here that said " bar chart - it is all you really need"


    Canada ****seed production down again as hot and dry conditions continue to take hold

    2021/22 Canada ****seed production is lowered by 1% to 19.0 [16.6–21.3] million tons, as poor soil moisture continues to be a concern in the majority of producing regions of Western Canada amid a historic heatwave. Our current estimate puts planted area at 8.6 million hectares, up 2% from last season, which is below the StatCan’s latest estimate of 9.1 million hectares in its Principal Field Crop Areas report (29 June). The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) pegged its estimate of Canada ****seed production at 20.2 million tons early July. The next StatCan update will be released in its Production of Principal Field Crops report, which is scheduled for late August. Unfavorable hot and dry conditions once again dominated much of late July across the Southern Prairies, depleting soil moisture reserves even further. Abnormally high temperatures were observed in Alberta and the western parts of Saskatchewan (2-4 °C above average), amid a continued lack of moisture (with deficits between 10-30 mm below normal). Alberta Agriculture and Forestry rated only 37% of its crop in good to excellent condition, far worse than the 5-year average of 74% and the 10-year average of 73%. Vegetation densities derived from satellite imagery continue to remain below historical median levels across most major production regions, and are turning downwards abruptly. Yield concerns are mounting as another heatwave is set to scorch Western Canada again next week.

    #2
    Who is manipulating the market?????????????

    And why are they not being held accountable????????

    There is not a 13MMt crop of canola.

    Comment


      #3
      I’ve been told that our area is one of the better ones, this year I would be happy to just to break 20 bushels. Lots of single digit yields out there, going to have to be a lot of 70 bushel fields to get to 19MMT.

      Comment


        #4
        19 MMT is unbelievable....

        Comment


          #5
          $31 a bushel starting in 1 month from now

          Comment


            #6
            There is not an 11 MMT crop ,FFS

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Robertbarlage View Post
              $31 a bushel starting in 1 month from now
              $1367/MT - Telemiracle Robert ... Which way are we going... Higher....

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by LWeber View Post
                $1367/MT - Telemiracle Robert ... Which way are we going... Higher....


                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Robertbarlage View Post
                  $31 a bushel starting in 1 month from now
                  If it hits 31 bucks, there are going to be some happy faces in these parts. What will barley and wheat hit?
                  Last edited by Sheepwheat; Jul 29, 2021, 09:19.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Sheepwheat View Post
                    If it hits 31 bucks, there are going to be some happy faces in these parts. What will barley and wheat hit?
                    Not to be a goofball here, but after thinking a bit more. What if your canola goes 8? And you get 31 bucks? 244 an acre. Plus crop insurance coverage if at the 80% level. Most guys surely could get close to a thirty bushel payout after eight bushels deducted? Some guys a lot more, some a lot less, but say average 30. Times the scic price.

                    Not bad actually, no? Trying to be optimistic here…

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Doing similar calculations, if in Crop ins. Wheat at $10 now.

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                        #12
                        As always, I'll be planting max allowed acres of canola again next year.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Sheepwheat View Post
                          Not bad actually, no? Trying to be optimistic here…
                          Sheep we used to get disasters in yrs past the the crop prices never moved. Dad took off 5bu durum in 1988 and it was still $2.50 or something.

                          There is some solace that whatever you can get off will be worth something. I dont know if thats enough to put guys heads in a great spot. We are talking about thousands of farmers who have missed 2 yrs of rallys now and are facing bigger bills at the end of it. Sold too early, now nothing to sell and a big forward contract to service.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by jazz View Post
                            Sheep we used to get disasters in yrs past the the crop prices never moved. Dad took off 5bu durum in 1988 and it was still $2.50 or something.

                            There is some solace that whatever you can get off will be worth something. I dont know if thats enough to put guys heads in a great spot. We are talking about thousands of farmers who have missed 2 yrs of rallys now and are facing bigger bills at the end of it. Sold too early, now nothing to sell and a big forward contract to service.
                            Totally. In my disaster too wet years, grain prices were MUCH lower than they are now. So I know what it’s like. All too well. I’m just trying to show that in a lot of cases, there is some hope. When it was wet, scic prices were poor, commodity prices were poor too, and it nearly finished my farming career. Had I had no insurance, I would have been toast.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Canada canola production will be well below these crazy highball production totals. Analysts don't buy into these bogus estimates anyway . . . .

                              But remember this is a world market, not just a western Canada market. Trade winds shift, substitution occurs and Asia financial markets are now breaking down . . . .

                              Comment

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