Wheat futures climbing nicely

[ry0972]

Futures doing well for a Friday.
Monday may be wild with the heat forecast for next week!!
Heard of $11 July targets triggering this morn!!
Also U.S.S.R and Ukraine wheat and canola/****seed crop yields being reduced?
The next 2 months will be volatile until actual production is known.
If you have a crop this year or crop still in the bin unpriced you may have some sales stubs to frame and talk about for generations!!!

[BreadWinner]

I bet there are way more people with sub 8.00 contracts that are wondering how they will fill them.

[BreadWinner]

Guys will be able to tell the story how they lost the farm because they signed a $8.00 wheat contact and it went to $20.00

[agstar77]

Talked to local elevator buyer. Canola contracted at 11.50 buying out. Wheat and beans not going there yet.

[ry0972]

Has any actually gotten or heard real #'s on what it is costing to buy out an $11.50 aug/sept canola contract?
It would be $10 a bushel just to cover the price spread?
What would the "fee" be on top of that? Another $1 or up to $4??

[jazz]

Talked to local elevator buyer. Canola contracted at 11.50 buying out. Wheat and beans not going there yet.

When was $11.50 being offered? Like back in March?

Thats not very good planning to book production before you are even in the field.

I never knew so many guys were so aggressive on forward contracting.

[BreadWinner]

It’s funny how the grain buyers were calling to have you book crop before you seed it and when you tell them that it’s not on the ground yet they tell you it’s no risk and they will work with you if there’s a problem. Lol, Well there’s a bit of a problem happening now. I bet that grain buyer is not singing the same tune now.

[Sodbuster]

Still have 25% of old crop to price yet, flipped my contract from July all the way to May to pick up the inverse so not in a hurry to sell. At this point in time I will wait out to after harvest to find out quality and production. Will not price any new crop until all my samples have been graded and have made a deal on the grade. Lots of factors in play with the grading of new crop, drought, midge, weight, fusarium and what ever else they find under the microscope and you can bet your last dollar that the,line companies will try to find every discount they can find.

They say that wheat is combined every week of the year, so in the next 2 months we should see Canada, US, Europe, Russia, Ukraine wheat production numbers. So what countries that harvest wheat between November and next June matter?

[Guest]

Still have 25% of old crop to price yet, flipped my contract from July all the way to May to pick up the inverse so not in a hurry to sell. At this point in time I will wait out to after harvest to find out quality and production. Will not price any new crop until all my samples have been graded and have made a deal on the grade. Lots of factors in play with the grading of new crop, drought, midge, weight, fusarium and what ever else they find under the microscope and you can bet your last dollar that the,line companies will try to find every discount they can find.

They say that wheat is combined every week of the year, so in the next 2 months we should see Canada, US, Europe, Russia, Ukraine wheat production numbers. So what countries that harvest wheat between November and next June matter?

we have about 40% left
sure not gonna need all the bins
none priced

[Herc]

Protein will likely be high this year, any premiums will disappear quickly. No way to lock them in as far as I know?

Can always lock in the protein spread. But who wants to price anything at the moment.

[iceman]

When was $11.50 being offered? Like back in March?

Thats not very good planning to book production before you are even in the field.

I never knew so many guys were so aggressive on forward contracting.

How are these private insurance companies going to handle these buyout? They actively encouraged producers to reduce their risk by forward contracting at the same time as telling the producers they were covered.

Also the premiums never would change no matter if you forward contracted 75% or 0%

Houston errr Regina we have a problem

Iceman

[iceman]

Excuse my ignorance, could you explain “ private insurance companies ”

Gars & just solutions they insure certain variable costs plus a fixed amount on top of the that. Ie variable plus $125 per acre.

[helmsdale]

Got it, so you’re saying a farmers forward contract turns into a bigger loss which they in turn have to cover?
My guess would be any forward contracts a farmer has done will be his own problem. I’m not that familiar with those programs.

They only cover it up to your indemnity, and I believe at that only up to the fixed cost margin coverage you select. It's not unlimited...

Let's say you have a wipeout, and a bunch prebooked. Well depending on how much you gambled they might cover the first $100 or $125/ac(whatever you select for fixed cost margin coverage), plus your inputs(if you elected to have your inputs covered), but every other single bill you have is still going to be coming due and you decided to piss away your fcmc on a gamble.