16 mmt canola crop

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Let’s say 15 million tons to pick a number.
Last years price peaked at $24 with supposedly about 22 million tons including carryover.
This year 15 million plus maybe 1 million carryover is 16 million available.
22/16=1.375 times 24=$33

Am I out to lunch??

I've been asking myself the same question.
Price was justified at the time when we were still assuming a normal 2021 crop.
Just the short covering alone could be spectacular, out of that what the consecutive days of limit up was clearing up?

[Hamloc]

In other news
I just saw on tweeter That Neil of Farm Link just made a radio announcement of a Canola crop of 37.5 bu
Can anyone confirm this?
If he did say that he must have alternative motive or he is absolutely nuts!

Yes he is quoted as saying 37.5 bushels in an article on farms.com I think the article was Canola crop under duress, article posted July 14. I have to be honest I can’t believe this guy still has a job!

[bucket]

July 14,2021

Neil Townsend, chief market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions, says they're expecting lower yields this year.

"We've been fairly conservative with reducing our yield. We are low, we're at about 37.5 bushels an acre, which really greatly constricts the supply and necessitates demand destruction, both domestically and in particular offshore."

He added the weather forecast is not favourable.

"The next 10 days the weather looks very grim for western Canada. I think the yield probably has more downside to it, than upside. That's going to be very favourable for the pricing because canola has a definitely strong demand base and I don't think people have really got the message yet that our supply is going to be very tight."

Townsend says while the crop has rebounded before, this year might be different.

"We're bullish canola for price, but we're bearish for canola for production. The price might be high but people might be getting a half or a third of a crop of what they expected. The one thing I will caution is, I don't think there's a person alive who totally understands how to forecast canola and how canola is going to end up. I don't want to totally write off the crop because we've been surprised before in the past when we thought the crop was under some duress. The only point I'll make is that this is the most significant duress the crop has been under in the last 10 years easily."

[bucket]

Holy oh phuck...he is a piece of work.

37.5 bpa for canola wasn't in the cards if it rained normal since May 1st.

Him and Justin must be smoking the same weed.

[iceman]

Holy oh phuck...he is a piece of work.

37.5 bpa for canola wasn't in the cards if it rained normal since May 1st.

Him and Justin must be smoking the same weed.

So let me get this straight. Farmers pay for this circus to continue and he has press releases like he owns a crush plant? I wonder what his trading account looks like?

Iceman

[SASKFARMER]

Oh boy areas with nice wheat crop and canola has issues. It’s the heat and the length of time we have had it.

More to follow off to sleep early start.

[furrowtickler]

July 14,2021

Neil Townsend, chief market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions, says they're expecting lower yields this year.

"We've been fairly conservative with reducing our yield. We are low, we're at about 37.5 bushels an acre, which really greatly constricts the supply and necessitates demand destruction, both domestically and in particular offshore."

He added the weather forecast is not favourable.

"The next 10 days the weather looks very grim for western Canada. I think the yield probably has more downside to it, than upside. That's going to be very favourable for the pricing because canola has a definitely strong demand base and I don't think people have really got the message yet that our supply is going to be very tight."

Townsend says while the crop has rebounded before, this year might be different.

"We're bullish canola for price, but we're bearish for canola for production. The price might be high but people might be getting a half or a third of a crop of what they expected. The one thing I will caution is, I don't think there's a person alive who totally understands how to forecast canola and how canola is going to end up. I don't want to totally write off the crop because we've been surprised before in the past when we thought the crop was under some duress. The only point I'll make is that this is the most significant duress the crop has been under in the last 10 years easily."

Absolutely a phuckin joke
What the F”””” is paying this guys wage
Seriously!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

Absolutely a phuckin joke
What the F”””” is paying this guys wage
Seriously!!!!

Did another 6 hr trip today.

Our Faba beans are coming back into flower... 37 c heat aborted at least 60% of the flowers at the event peak.

East Edm. Peas seeded May 1 week are podded and filled, and changing to yellow in 50% of the field at Sherwood Park.

Our Inca peas at Killam are 60% in bloom, and doing well, seeded May 12 with July 5 rain that bumped them into flower after the heat event.

Later Canola that missed the 37c heat event before flowering is much better than early May.

Our May 4 east Edm canola is now trying to bloom again... even though no rain for 5 weeks.

The 22c max temp yesterday really cranked the flowering up into high gear everywhere around here... even though few have recieved rain in the last week+.Envr. Canada says Ft. Sask. AB got 7mm of rain in June... which tells a big story about missing showers... The garden of Eden at Ft. Sask. looks like 70% of normal as an estimate if we get some filling showers in the next 10 days.

As long as we don't do another 37c week round [31-32c seems to just stall not kill] it looks to me perhaps 15mmt makes some sense; if we get some showers to fill pods to give a decent seed size... could be a 50% variance from the filling stage alone if we got zapped again with a week or 2 of 37c.

Long way weather wise... till harvest except for early peas which have yield as pods are filled!!!

Too late for retillering on wheat/etc to make it now... how our cereals will fill is still an big unknown.

If someone wants to post how to get pictures off iPhone on to here; I have some nice ones! Thx.

Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

Use the drop down tab bottom left to be on the desktop site.
Press the tab I put an arrow to and press choose file then pick your pic.

I’ll add that I could post pics of some really nice looking crops that likely won’t fill with the forecast, they would just make the market think a great crop is coming.

[ATTACH]8263[/ATTACH]

Looks like perhaps some of my Edmonton pictures might work.
The first wheat is by the south side of the tree line, only the heads are left green and are just into the early dough stage… but stems are green to the ground so maybe they might still fill without rain if not too hot.

Canola still has leaves on late seeded so looks like it is well rooted into moisture so blooming nicely… will see how long it can go with out rain!

Peas flower fill to harvest is possible this year with out rain?! These are Barrhead yellow peas which are quite determinant.
Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

[QUOTE=TOM4CWB;501676]Looks like perhaps some of my Edmonton pictures might work.
The first wheat is by the south side of the tree line, only the heads are left green and are just into the early dough stage… but stems are green to the ground so maybe they might still fill without rain if not too hot.

Canola still has leaves on late seeded so looks like it is well rooted into moisture so blooming nicely… will see how long it can go with out rain!

Peas flower fill to harvest is possible this year with out rain?! These are Barrhead yellow peas which are quite determinant.
Cheers


Here is better wheat shots,


First pic of Accelerate with Edmonton skyline on horizon

Second is Ellerslie wheat seeded May 5 17th street and Ellerslie road Edmonton





I saved the pictures sideways but still wrong orientation.

Cheers