Crush margin

[farming101]

For Oct/Nov months up 10 in one day. now 147.94
New crop bids lagging. Very disappointing....

[beaverdam]

For Oct/Nov months up 10 in one day. now 147.94
New crop bids lagging. Very disappointing....

link?

[farming101]

https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/2/product/1092/hub/1051/isOption/false/isSpread/false https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/2/product/1092/hub/1051/isOption/false/isSpread/false

[farming101]

Oct/Nov up another 6 today

[Rareearth]

So thats about $2.50 dollars a bushel higher than normal crush margin of $50

[Rareearth]

And for the policy makers and politicians thats $2.50 a bushel thats normally paid to farmers.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

So yesterdays ( Aug 16) Crush margin is $9.53. Today canola up ~$10/tonne while oil is down, so margin is likely negative. Where does the energy to push canola prices any higher come from now?
palm oil is bouncing around just below its all time highs seemingly unable to break through. But up big again (almost 3% ) yesterday.

It seems that there is much more bad news (actual yields) yet to be discovered by the market, but is there any room to move?

Or does the price of canola oil chart its own path separate from soybean oil, or has it already? The calculated crush margin is based on soy oil and meal prices.

[farming101]

Bean oil futures are up over 100% from a year ago.
Palm oil futures about the same.
Is the top in veg oil complex in? Maybe, but why would it go down very much?

Concerning canola oil, indications are the spread for refined over crude canola oil is way high.
The US is by far the largest purchaser of refined canola oil. Because supplies will tighten over the next year as the small 2021 crop is crushed look for refined oil exports to the US to be strongly defended at the expense of other oil markets.

There may be some substitution for canola oil because there is often a blend of oils used in the restaurant/ commercial industry but they won't want to mess with the recipe if they can help it.

[shtferbrains]

What about demand?
Demand has to be rocketing?
Frenchfries back on the plates, fried chicken sandwiches, biodiesel?
I know nothing about the oilseed market but don't think all those fast food places have much opportunity to substitute frier oil at risk of product loyalty regarding taste?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks for the comments.
I suspect there is more to the crush margin than the price of soy oil right now.