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Are YOU ready for the next 'Carrington Event' CME Solar Storm?

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    Are YOU ready for the next 'Carrington Event' CME Solar Storm?

    Interesting that we intentionally blindly grope our way... into a future that could have catastrophic [Of Biblical Proportions] consequences for relying on Electronic/Satellite/Internet services for our survival.

    Solar Panels anyone? EV that are useless... no GPS... Rely on cell phones?...

    1000x more likely than 'Global Warming'/Climate Change difficulties disrupting our food sources. Transportation, financial services, communications and governments... is a 'Carrington Event' CME white flash event from the sun.

    Here is some of the reports from the 1859 Sept 1-2 CME event... that caused fires, recked the telegraph/communications systems...

    We barely missed a similar catastrophic event in 2012 by only 9 days...

    Yet President Biden, PM Trudeau, and the rest of western civilization blindly leads us into unreasonable risks that make the Covid-19 Pandemic issues look like a Sunday walk in the Park!

    We only have a few years to prepare for the next 'Solar Maximum' that goes in 10 year cycles...

    Excerpts about CME risks and the 1859 'Carrington CME Event':

    "What neither could know at the moment is that a major Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) had just erupted from the surface of the Sun and was headed straight for Earth.

    The major CME event traversed the 150 million km distance between the Sun and Earth in just 17.6 hours, much faster than the multi-day period it usually takes CMEs to reach the distance of Earth’s orbit.

    Follow-up investigations over the last century and a half point to the auroral displays of the 28 and 29 August 1859 as the clue for why the 1 September CME traveled as fast as it did. It is now widely believed and accepted that a smaller CME erupted from the Sun in late-August and effectively cleared the path between Earth and the Sun of most of the solar wind plasma that would normally slow down a CME.

    By the time the 1 September event observed by Carrington and Hodgson began, conditions were perfect for the massive storm to race across the inner solar system and slam into Earth within just a few hours.


    When the CME arrived, the Kew Observatory’s magnetometer recorded the event as a magnetic crochet in the ionosphere. This observation, coupled with the solar flare, allowed Carrington to correctly draw the link — for the first time — between geomagnetic storms observed on Earth and the Sun’s activity.

    Upon impact, telegraph systems across Europe and North America, which took the brunt of the impact, failed. In some cases, telegraphs provided electric shocks to operators; in other cases, their lines sparked in populated areas and — in places — started fires.

    The event produced some of the brightest auroras ever recorded in history. People in New England were able to read the newspaper in the middle of the night without any additional light. Meanwhile, in Colorado, miners believed it was daybreak and began their morning routine.

    The auroras were so strong they were clearly observed throughout the Caribbean, Mexico, Hawaii, southern Japan, southern China, and as far south as Colombia near the equator in South America and as far north as Queensland, Australia near the equator in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The strength of the Carrington Event is now recognized in heliophysics as a specific class of CME and is named after Richard Carrington.

    Historical evidence in the form of Carbon-14 trapped and preserved in tree rings indicates that the previous, similarly energetic CME event to the one in 1859 occurred in 774 CE and that Carrington-class Earth impact events occur on average once every several millennia.



    Still, lower energy CMEs erupted from the Sun and impacted Earth in 1921, 1960, and 1989 — the latter of which caused widespread power outages throughout Quebec province in Canada. These three events are not considered to have been of Carrington-class strength.

    However, a Carrington-class superstorm did erupt from the Sun on 23 July 2012 and narrowly missed Earth by just nine days, providing a stark warning from our solar parent that it is only a matter of time before another Carrington-class event impacts Earth.

    Coming shortly after the 2012 near miss, researchers from Lloyd’s of London and the Atmospheric and Environmental Research agency in the United States estimated that a Carrington-class event impacting Earth today would cause between $0.6 and $2.6 trillion in damages to the United States alone and would cause widespread — if not global — electrical disruptions, blackouts, and damages to electrical grids.

    Cascading failures of electrical grids, especially in New England in the United States, are also particularly likely during a Carrington-class event. Power restoration estimates range anywhere from a week to the least affected areas to more than a year to the hardest-hit regions.

    Electronic payment systems at grocery stores and gas stations would likely crash, electric vehicle charging stations — that rely on the power grid — would likely be unusable for some time, as would ATMs which rely on an internet and/or satellite link to verify account and cash disbursement information.

    The world’s heliophysics fleet of spacecraft that keep constant watch on the Sun. (Credit: NASA)
    Television signals from satellites would be majorly disrupted, and satellites, too, would experience disruptions to radio frequency communication, crippling GPS navigation.

    Planes flying over the oceans would likely experience navigation errors and communications blackouts as a result of the disrupted satellite network.

    Astronauts onboard the International Space Station would either seek shelter in one of the radiation-hardened modules of the outpost or, if enough time permitted and the CME event was significant enough, enter their Soyuz or U.S. crew vehicle and come home.

    The question of exactly how to best protect astronauts on the Moon or at destinations farther out in the solar system is an on-going discussion/effort.

    Unlike 1859, however, today, we have an international fleet — including the Solar Dynamics Orbiter, SOHO, the Parker Solar Probe, and the European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) Solar Orbiter — of vehicles constantly observing the Sun and seeking to understand the underlying mechanisms that generate sunspots, solar flares, and Coronal Mass Ejections, which while linked to one another do not automatically follow each other.

    Understanding the underlying mechanisms that trigger CMEs and how severe they would be is a key driving force for heliophysicists. But even with the current fleet in space, all scientists can really do at this moment is provide — at best — a multi-day warning that a CME has occurred and is heading toward Earth.



    Simply having a multi-day warning would give us time to shut down power stations and transformers, stop long-haul and transoceanic flights, and basically hunker down and wait for it to pass. The best we could do now is simply try to minimize the damage.

    It would take a large financial and time and workforce commitment to preemptively rebuild power grids and communications systems in a way that they could fully withstand a Carrington-class CME, and that is something governments around the world have shown little to no interest in doing.

    Still, the Parker Solar Probe from NASA is literally diving into the solar corona to try to unlock the mystery of how Coronal Mass Ejections form and accelerate to incredible velocities as they leave the Sun. What’s more, ESA’s Solar Orbiter mission is attempting to complement that data by looking at the Sun and observing it from an orientation never before possible.

    But a harsh truth remains: 161 years after the Carrington Event, the world is still not prepared for a large-scale solar storm and what it would do to us.

    The nine day near miss of the 2012 Carrington-class event should have been a major wake-up call, especially given technological advancements and our dependence on it for everyday life.

    But it’s warning does not appear to have been heeded as well as it should have..."

    https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/08/carrington-event-warning/
    Last edited by TOM4CWB; Mar 8, 2021, 12:20.

    #2
    Now that would be GLOBAL catastrophe, We are so vulnerable to electronic failures of darn near everything, chaos to the max!

    Comment


      #3
      Say Tom, you know I heard a story once upon a time about a tower named Babel.

      Sound familiar?

      Nah, that can't happen...

      Comment


        #4
        Tom: What exactly do you think we should be doing?
        I have no doubt a CME will strike earth again someday be it next week, next year, next generation, or in 1000 or more years. We have no idea of the strength of the the CME. It could be enough for spectacular northern lights, or an extinct level event. Given this lack of knowledge I fully support scientific study into CMEs. But how much do we spend to protect the entire global infrastructure from such an unknown level of risk? If the public cannot be sold on mitigating climate change for which there is much more information about risks and costs, do you really think they will buy into protection against and even more unknown risk of CMEs?

        Comment


          #5
          Or $$ for a "global" rise in temp within the margin of error, or a deadly virus that 99.5+% survive.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by dmlfarmer View Post
            Tom: What exactly do you think we should be doing?
            I have no doubt a CME will strike earth again someday be it next week, next year, next generation, or in 1000 or more years. We have no idea of the strength of the the CME. It could be enough for spectacular northern lights, or an extinct level event. Given this lack of knowledge I fully support scientific study into CMEs. But how much do we spend to protect the entire global infrastructure from such an unknown level of risk? If the public cannot be sold on mitigating climate change for which there is much more information about risks and costs, do you really think they will buy into protection against and even more unknown risk of CMEs?
            DML Our Governments know what to do to harden our electrical systems... seems to me that if we are wise we will build a system that can accommodate both increased EV charging capacity/flexibility for Green Energy and harden our systems to CME events at the same time. We will have CME events that cause significant problems... NASA has made this clear.

            It is up to us... to use common sense and have the foresight to rebuild with a robust infrastructure. As it is now... I see no one even considering our options!

            I suppose we will just wait for a extinction event meteor to get us and not worry about this small issue!

            Cheers

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by dmlfarmer View Post
              Tom: What exactly do you think we should be doing?
              I have no doubt a CME will strike earth again someday be it next week, next year, next generation, or in 1000 or more years. We have no idea of the strength of the the CME. It could be enough for spectacular northern lights, or an extinct level event. Given this lack of knowledge I fully support scientific study into CMEs. But how much do we spend to protect the entire global infrastructure from such an unknown level of risk? If the public cannot be sold on mitigating climate change for which there is much more information about risks and costs, do you really think they will buy into protection against and even more unknown risk of CMEs?
              https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/01/31/this-multi-trillion-dollar-disaster-is-coming-and-solar-astronomy-is-our-prime-defense/?sh=12a438207613

              This Multi-Trillion Dollar Disaster Is Coming, And Solar Astronomy Is Our Prime Defense
              Starts With A Bang
              Ethan SiegelSenior Contributor
              Starts With A BangContributor Group
              Science

              ..."When CMEs come to Earth, that's what causes a space weather event. A solar flare without a CME won't be capable of causing a large geomagnetic storm; one of the things that SOHO taught us is that that the Earth's magnetic field will protect us from normal solar flares extremely well, leading to a minor auroral event at most.

              But many solar flares will lead to coronal mass ejections, particularly if there's a solar prominence nearby. Prominences are high-density collections of material that reside in the corona, and CMEs typically occur where the prominences found on the Sun magnetically break, which leads to the ejection of material. The CMEs themselves are directionally oriented, and it's only the ones that wind up striking Earth that put us at risk. When a CME goes off to the side, there's no worry; but when we see an annular CME from our perspective, that's when they're headed right for us.

              When a coronal mass ejection appears to extend in all directions relatively equally from our... [+] perspective, a phenomenon known as an annular CME, that's an indication that it's likely headed right for our planet.
              When a coronal mass ejection appears to extend in all directions relatively equally from our... [+] ESA / NASA / SOHO
              But even solar flares that cause CMEs that are directed right at Earth don't necessarily cause geomagnetic storms; there needs to be one other piece of the puzzle that lines up just right: there needs to be the right magnetic connection. Remember that magnets typically have North and South poles, where like poles (North-North or South-South) repel, but opposite poles (North-South or South-North) attract.

              Earth has its own magnetic field, which — from a distance — looks kind of like a bar magnet aligned close to our axis of rotation. If the magnetic field of the material ejected during a CME is aligned with Earth's field, the solar particles will be repelled, and no geomagnetic event will occur on Earth. But if the fields are anti-aligned, like they almost certainly were 161 years ago for the infamous Carrington event, you'll get a spectacular (and possibly dangerous) event, with the greatest auroral displays and much, much more.

              When charged particles are sent towards Earth from the Sun, they are bent by Earth's magnetic field.... [+] However, rather than being diverted away, some of those particles are funneled down along Earth's poles, where they can collide with the atmosphere and create aurorae. This only occurs during CMEs when the correct component of the ejected particles' magnetic field is anti-aligned with Earth's magnetic field.
              When charged particles are sent towards Earth from the Sun, they are bent by Earth's magnetic field.... [+] NASA
              Since the 2000s, our best tools for measuring the magnetic fields of the charged particles from CMEs that head towards Earth are the slew of satellites and observatories placed at the L1 Lagrange point: a point in space located about 1,500,000 km away from Earth on the Sun-facing side. Unfortunately, that's already 99% of the way from the Sun to the Earth; we typically only get about ~45 minutes from when a CME arrives at L1 until it arrives on Earth, and either produces a geomagnetic storm or not.

              Ideally, what our next generation of solar observatories would bring us is a great increase in the amount of time we'll have to know whether we need to take the appropriate mitigating actions when such a potentially catastrophic coronal mass ejection occurs. There are plenty of things we can do, but we need more than an hour of advanced notice in order to do them.

              A contour plot of the effective potential of the Earth-Sun system. The L1 Lagrange point is useful... [+] for Sun-observing satellites, since they'll always remain between the Earth and the Sun, but by that point, the particles from a CME are already 99% of the way there.
              A contour plot of the effective potential of the Earth-Sun system. The L1 Lagrange point is useful... [+] NASA
              The way we can best mitigate the damage from space weather events on Earth is to have power companies cut off the currents in their electrical grids, and disconnect (and sufficiently ground) stations and substations instead, so that the induced current doesn't flow into homes, businesses and industrial buildings. Because of the enormous magnitude of the currents, they need to be safely and gradually ramped down, which typically takes around a day, rather than an hour, to enact.

              The key to knowing whether a CME has the appropriate component of its magnetic field aligned or anti-aligned well in advance of its arrival on Earth is to measure the magnetic field on the Sun; instead of ~45 minutes of lead time, you can get the full ~3 days or so that it typically takes ejected coronal material to travel from the Sun to the Earth."....

              Comment


                #8
                I once asked the VP of operations of Saskpower if they had any contingency plan in place should there be a solar flare. He had no idea the sun could affect the electrical grid. I told him to read about the Carrington event and sign up for Noaa's free alerts. There is a ten minute window from the time the solar flare occurs until the charged particles bombard our ionosphere. In the event flip your main breaker, the powerlines act as antennae.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Should have a power surge trip on the main pole. There’s a market. Simpleist solution, save everything being fryed.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by sumdumguy View Post
                    Should have a power surge trip on the main pole. There’s a market. Simpleist solution, save everything being fryed.
                    If the CME is strong enough[and of the polarity to cause damage]... it will collect large charges of electricity in the wires themselves that have been disconnected. It is very important as the above states; to have robust grounding built into the system to discharge the CME energy[picked up by the unconnected wiring] instead of burning out the electrical wiring circuits.

                    "The way we can best mitigate the damage from space weather events on Earth is to have power companies cut off the currents in their electrical grids, and disconnect (and sufficiently ground) stations and substations instead, so that the induced current doesn't flow into homes, businesses and industrial buildings. Because of the enormous magnitude of the currents, they need to be safely and gradually ramped down, which typically takes around a day, rather than an hour, to enact."

                    This requires planning and design engineered grid components, including our own electrical grid in our Farmsteads, Farm buildings, and bin electrical systems.

                    Pandemic planning ... wondering what should be built into Solar Panels [how to properly ground [generating equipment] during a 'Carrington CME'] also how to insure Lithium Ion/[as well as other types] batteries don't self destruct if built into a supply generating electrical system.

                    Cheers
                    Last edited by TOM4CWB; Mar 9, 2021, 12:27.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      It sounds based. Humanity is marching too fast to nowhere.

                      Comment

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