Drought Watch 2021

[Hamloc]

Well this thread got derailed.

Here's an attempt to put it back on track.

Has anyone else punched soil cores? Drove around yesterday and all crops are suffering. It doesn't matter whether it's on chemfallow or stubble. There is still respectable moisture in the entire 12" soil profile with the exception of the top 1.5", but it seems that the crop is completely unable to keep up. Compaction certainly shows up this year!

How long do you guys think you can hold on? Yield most certainly has been taken off the table. Models do not seem to indicate any respite in the near or even medium term future.

Speaking for this area, some crops are done regardless of whether the heat breaks today, tomorrow, or two weeks from now. In another week it'll be approaching disaster across the board, and if meaningful rain doesnt show up until harvest time, combines will be rolling in the low spots on all crop types the last week of July to try and gather up seed for next year.

Helmsdale just curious what area you farm in? Here in central Alberta the heat and lack of rain in the forecast(just looked nothing in the 14 day) has me very worried. I will be honest up until now our crops looked good. No doubt yield going backwards every day. I was just reading an article on the Western Producer website on the condition of western Canada’s canola crop in which Clint Jurke from the canola council of Canada said that the majority of the crop won’t be in full flowering stage development for another 2 to 3 weeks which could minimize the amount of heat damage. Personally at the speed crops are advancing around here flowering will be done by then.

[jazz]

majority of the crop won’t be in full flowering stage development for another 2 to 3 weeks which could minimize the amount of heat damage. Personally at the speed crops are advancing around here flowering will be done by then.

Hamloc, I read that article too. Did you note the part about ND crops saying they were nearly a write off.

I noticed even later seeded canola is rushing to bolt now. I have a neighbor who seeded 2 weeks after I did and his is bolting now too, just mere days behind mine. The crop feels stress, its not waiting.

[GDR]

Annual crops still look pretty decent here considering the lack of moisture. Thinner than we are used to, isnt tillering like normal though. The big swath of hail that went through provided some moisture and that area looks overall better than where the storm didnt go. (minus the house and vehicle damage). Also the delay on the canola may help yield as early canola is bolting in the heat this week.

Hay and pasture is dismal, hay has been shriveling up the last couple weeks, mostly cut here and will be a third of normal. Not sure what is gonna happen with the pastures, there is a big wreck coming here if it dont rain soon and will be a big wreck for a big number of head. An inch or two isn't gonna help the grass, it needs a couple weeks of wet cooler weather to recover or its done.

It really feels like fall around here, hard to believe it's still June.

[helmsdale]

But the big crop is long gone now especially in canola. Wonder if the market experts will figure that out this time.

Driving around, while ill admit my circle is considerably smaller than it used to be, I'll throw it out there that the big crop of ANYTHING is gone!

-Hay is curing while standing
-Pastures are becoming a serious fire hazard!
-I've seen a few *ok* oilseed crops, but they all seem to be struggling. It's been a hell of a go between beetles, frost, hot temps, cold temps, gophers, etc.
-*ok* cereal crops are visibly wilting, bad/terrible cereal crops are dying!
-Pea crops have quit growing vertically and are trying to set what seed they can.
-ALOT of lentil crops around here never filled in.

[helmsdale]

Markets are definitely taking notice.

P&H email this morning: "MGEX up sharply this am!"

North American Durum crop has to be taking it on the nose! There are significant tracts of durum country that are 1-800-cropinsurance territory and will likely be rolled up for feed.

Hearing of Canola shortages in Europe... You can't possibly tell me that this crop is going to replenish stocks let alone maintain current crush capacity!

If I had pre-sold production without an "ACT of god" clause I'd be shitting myself thinking about what its going to cost to buy that thing out!

[helmsdale]

Modelling is an imprecise science at best, but as of late, the trend has not been our friend... And these ECMWF forecasts are most certainly not friendly!

[redleaf]

Been one of the driest spells I can remember for a long time. Short barley here is already forming heads in the boot and establishing yield in the oncoming heat will not mean high yields. Beer can height canola is bolting all over the neighbourhood. Hanging on with subsoil moisture for the meantime.

[jazz]

Did a little probing myself this am. There is moisture down there a couple inches and can carry the crop a while.

The potential for heat blasting in the canola will be the biggest issue for us.

[seldomseen]

Probed a few fields this morning and the first 6 inches is semi dry with a little moisture. The next 6 inches is wet clay. By the look of the canola its not getting the moisture that's down in the lower 6 yet or its not able to bring that moisture up yet. Kind of looks like the main tap root goes down about 4 inches. Plants are small and starting to bolt.

[Guest]

Did a little probing myself this am. There is moisture down there a couple inches and can carry the crop a while.

The potential for heat blasting in the canola will be the biggest issue for us.

for everyone actually
with a prairie wide forecast like that , crop size is declining every day
what will Neil say ???????????????

[WiltonRanch]

for everyone actually
with a prairie wide forecast like that , crop size is declining every day
what will Neil say ???????????????

Whatever pads his fat wallet.

[sumdumguy]

1988 all over again. Protect what is there. There’s a hungry world.

[dmlfarmer]

Hopefully one day some of you will figure it out .
One small piece of evidence is the false presumption that growing seasons in western Canada are now longer ... that was being pushed two years ago
Absolutely not true , but it’s like beating a dead horse because the truth stood in the way of the narrative being pushed .
Yes we are getting a one week heat wave now and it will be all over every msm , social media .. everywhere
But not a word of the 5 frosts at the end of May , another 1 or 2 in June depending on location ... that’s just as extraordinary as this heat wave but will be ignored, just like the August frosts and early September snows that devastated crops in huge areas in western Canada the past few years . Why ? Cause it does not fit the narrative , but today sure does
DYODD .... there is much more to what’s going on than carbon , but majority of people can’t think for themselves anymore .

And who says growing seasons in western Canada are not longer? You because of frosts in your little part of the prairies? Show me one scientific study showing growing seasons are not getting longer in western Canada. Yes there may be pockets where late spring and early fall frosts happen but could that not be the extremes and variablity to be expected with a warming world that we have warned about.

I have DMODD, and I have found lots of credible, peer reviewed studies showing a lenghtening of the growing season. Probably the best in out of the U of L looking at Alberta growing season length, frost free days and a host of other climatic factors between 1950 and 2017 across the province. Yes, there is a small area around Grand Cache and other in East Central Alberta which did not show longer growing season or GDDs but it is small pockets. Lots of places have gained 2 weeks or more in growing season The trend lines are easy to see at http://www.albertaclimaterecords.com/ http://www.albertaclimaterecords.com/

Natural Resources Canada has this chart of the increasing lenght of growing season in Canada

It is happening in the US too. This Chart from EPA

"During 1991-2011, the average frost-free season was about 10 days longer than during 1901-1960." https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/frost-free-season https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/frost-free-season

"The average U.S. growing season has been extended by about two weeks, according to data collected from 1900 to 2014. University of Nebraska–Lincoln researchers have assembled a region-by-region composite of how climate change has affected agricultural timelines and yields of six crops throughout the United States." https://www.agupdate.com/agriview/news/crop/climate-change-extending-growing-season/article_cd0a0bb9-889b-52a5-94e4-5550379dcb0f.html https://www.agupdate.com/agriview/news/crop/climate-change-extending-growing-season/article_cd0a0bb9-889b-52a5-94e4-5550379dcb0f.html

Again, my point is that just like antivaxers, you base your claim on a very small subset of data. Just because a frost happened to you does not mean growing seasons are not lenghtening.

[Sheepwheat]

I’m on the other side of the province as furrow, and I’ll vouch for the same thing. I would also vouch that summer temperatures have plummeted since records started being taken on this farm. Anyone else want to jump in and put this dml in his place?

[dmlfarmer]

Dml what do you consider to be action against it? What are you doing personally to take action against it?

My thought is this, if government actually believes what it says that, the amount of C02 in the atmosphere has already guaranteed that the climate will warm, should we not be spending money making the crops we grow more resilient to heat. Wheat and Barley are most productive at 20-25* celsius, flowering during a period over +30 greatly reduces yield. Wouldn’t money be better spend on adapting our food production to tolerate the change in climate? What about relocating peoples residences out of flood plains? The list goes on. But in reality the government is spending its money subsidizing electric car charging stations and subsidizing Chinese made solar panels. So attack our outlook all you want, I won’t support our present federal government’s policies!

Hamloc, I have a neighbor who cattle are out all the time. Some blame the fences, but they are not that bad. The real problem is he continually overgrazes and has too many cattle for the area. So what is the fix for his cattle on the highway? Better fences, fewer cattle, rotational grazing. My point is the problem will continue until the real issue is addessed which is lack of pasture. I agree we need to look at more adaptable crops that can handle more weather extremes and variability, including not only heat, but also late spring frosts which could be a result of increased weather variability. But at the same time, unless we address the real problem, which is the the cause of climate change, we will continue to see problems increase. Just because we get better crops does not solve the problems which are causing climate change.

My biggest fear is that if we continue to pretend climate change is not happening, or show what modern agriculture is doing to sequester carbon through zero till, agriculture will continue to be seen as a root cause and it will cost us. And I really believe it will lead to disasterous experiments to try and cool the earth. Then we can kiss agriculture in Canada goodbye.