Status of Keystone XL?

[chuckChuck]

“We will be over-piped assuming the other pipelines go ahead on schedule,” said Wood Mackenzie research director Mark Oberstoetter. “If you add them all up, you can make the argument KXL was not needed.”

So was KXL a make work project? Surely we should invest in infrastucture that is needed rather than build excess capacity in pipelines that may be underused or white elephants in a few decades under net zero plans.

[Austrian Economics]

"Most investors are asking, are the oil sands going to be competitive in a carbon constrained world?" For that matter, what investment is going to be competitive in a world that seems hell bent on committing economic suicide?

[chuckChuck]

That's an exaggeration to say the least.

Just because we are transitioning to cleaner energy sources to fight climate change doesn't mean the economy will fail. There will still be demand for all types of commodities, products and services.

Can you tell the difference as a consumer between renewable hydro, wind, solar, gas and coal fired electricity? They all do the same work.

[littledoggie]

"Most investors are asking, are the oil sands going to be competitive in a carbon constrained world?" For that matter, what investment is going to be competitive in a world that seems hell bent on committing economic suicide?

A good question for the Davos crowd.

[jazz]

"Most investors are asking, are the oil sands going to be competitive in a carbon constrained world?" For that matter, what investment is going to be competitive in a world that seems hell bent on committing economic suicide?

Better question, what form of energy is dense enough to forge this new renewable economy which is just unicorns right now.

I would bet all these billionaires are playing both sides of the coin. Starve one source until the price becomes untenable and people are protesting and lining up for fuel, then present the new solution and everybody will demand it.

If fracking is banned the oil sands will become more valuable in the near term. Its the only source of oil in NA that wont need more drilling or licenses to expand.

[LEP]

So why are Kenney and Moe so mad about the loss of the planned KXL? Since they should know we will have enough pipeline capacity in the works, it looks like political grandstanding and theatre.

And how do you blame Trudeau and the Liberals when they rescued TMX?

Alot of what Moe and Kenney say is pure politics designed to stir up resentment.

It always makes me laugh at the ridiculous thought that chuckles can look at the decision of a multibillion dollar project by a multibillion dollar company and think he knows more than they do. This thing has been analyzed and studied for years. If they can make a business case how can anyone say otherwise.

It is between the company and it's shareholders to decide if they can make a business case for another pipeline. Not some biased outsider with zero cash on the line.

By the way I doubt the weasel words put in Trump's executive order will exempt the US government from liability under the USMCA. Otherwise Executive Orders would be used regularly to subvert the trade deals and a trade deal wouldn't be worth the paper it is written on.

[Guest]

yep, they don't trust the "science" of all the studies that tried , but couldn't find anything wrong with keystone
its all about getting that oil back on rails and into buffets pocket

[jazz]

By the way I doubt the weasel words put in Trump's executive order will exempt the US government from liability under the USMCA. Otherwise Executive Orders would be used regularly to subvert the trade deals and a trade deal wouldn't be worth the paper it is written on.

Except the USMCA is a federal deal and to challenge under it, only a country can do that, not a province, so skippy would have to initiate it and he sure as hell wont.

Wait until the buy american policy takes hold though. If that gets rammed through or tarrifs applied on our energy and manufacured goods, then holy hell will we be in for a ride. Canada would fold in a day.

Thank god canola a wheat dont go to the US.

[Sodbuster]

Thank god canola and wheat dont go to the US.

Oil falls in the same category, we need pipelines going east and west to ocean ports where it can be sold or refined at world prices instead of the US companies stealing it at what ever price they want to bid on any given day. I’m thinking maybe Biden did us a favour, we just need a government to pass policy so we can complete pipelines

[LEP]

Except the USMCA is a federal deal and to challenge under it, only a country can do that, not a province, so skippy would have to initiate it and he sure as hell wont.

Wait until the buy american policy takes hold though. If that gets rammed through or tarrifs applied on our energy and manufacured goods, then holy hell will we be in for a ride. Canada would fold in a day.

Thank god canola a wheat dont go to the US.

Companies can lead an action for damages. Governments step up or not if an entire sector is targeted.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/nafta-lawsuits-target-canada-most-while-u-s-hasnt-lost-yet

[wmoebis]

Just a question! If the pipelines were in the ground and ready to take on oil is the rest of the system ready to go? I heard it was years away from having production and refinery at Ft Mac being anywhere being ready to fill the lines. Does anyone know?

[Oliver88]

Oil falls in the same category, we need pipelines going east and west to ocean ports where it can be sold or refined at world prices instead of the US companies stealing it at what ever price they want to bid on any given day. I’m thinking maybe Biden did us a favour, we just need a government to pass policy so we can complete pipelines

We will now need a government to delete all of Trudeau’s anti-pipeline and anti-energy industry policies than get out of the way. The Keystone XL would of moved oil to the Gulf of Mexico so I’m not sure why any Canadian would be opposed to it.....especially a grain farmer since railways will now be busy moving oil.

[dmlfarmer]

Following is a blog post by a Calgary lawyer who has spent 26 years working in the oil industry. In her post she answers a number of questions that have been asked in this thread. She also contradicts a number of claims posters have made on this thread.

Many of you will disagree with most if not all she says, but I suggest you read and consider her arguments given her position and experience. Unless you understand and can actually refute an opponents position there is no way your position will be ever accepted.

Kenney’s (Bombastic) Response to Biden Cancelling KXL’s Permit
Posted on January 25, 2021 by susanonthesoapbox

On January 20 when the rest of the world was congratulating President Biden on his inauguration, Jason Kenney was attacking Biden’s character and threatening trade wars because Biden revoked Trump’s executive order approving KXL.

Not satisfied that he’d made his point, Kenney appeared on Fox TV and other media outlets to condemn Biden’s disrespectful treatment of “a Canadian government,” an ally and a friend.

Leaving aside the obvious fact that Kenney’s characterization of Alberta as “a Canadian government” is misleading—Alberta is a “subnational” government or “provincial” government, it is not the federal government and notwithstanding what Fox viewers may think, Kenney does not speak for Canada. Or all Albertans for that matter.

So what did he say?

Biden did something wrong

Kenney said Biden retroactively vetoed an existing pipeline.

Trump’s executive order approves the KXL border crossing facility (a 30” diameter pipeline including the first shut off valve or pumping station and appurtenances). This is part of an incomplete project, it is not an “existing pipeline.”

The order says it may be terminated, revoked, or amended at any time “in the sole discretion” of the President. Lawyers may argue about the meaning of “sole discretion” but it looks like Biden has the power to do what he did.

Kenney is fighting for Alberta’s energy industry and the jobs KXL would create

Let’s start with Alberta energy industry. Not one major oilsands producer has issued a press release condemning Biden’s actions.

While TC Energy issued a press release saying it’s “disappointed” and will consider its options, TC Energy’s CEO is not all over the airwaves complaining about being mistreated.

If Biden’s decision was such a big blow to the industry why isn’t the industry standing shoulder to shoulder with Kenney calling Biden out.

Ah, but what about all those lost jobs?

Kenney job loss numbers include American jobs and are overstated. He said 2000 people lost their jobs. TC Energy said it’s 1000, and many of those jobs were in the US.

Kenney said over 59,000 new jobs would have been created. TC Energy said of the 59,000 indirect jobs, only 17,000 were Canadian jobs, the remaining 42,000 were in the US. But hey, Mr Kenney, feel free to start a trade war over American jobs.

It’s Trudeau’s fault

Kenney said Biden wouldn’t have concluded Canada wouldn’t stand up for the industry if the federal (Trudeau) government had responded “with strength” when President Obama refused to issue the presidential permit in 2015.

Stephen Harper was prime minister when Obama rejected KXL’s new route in Jan 2012. Harper was PM when Obama vetoed the GOP bill approving KXL in Feb 2015. Trudeau was elected 2 days before Obama rejected the presidential permit for KXL in Nov 2015.

Harper had three years to bring Obama around. Trudeau had 2 days and by then it was too late. So tell me again which federal government failed to respond “with strength” to Obama’s intransigence.

The kitchen sink

In addition to arguing Biden disrespected Alberta by failing to consult with Canada prior to revoking the permit (this from the man who didn’t consult with Albertans on revoking the Coal Policy, teachers’ pensions, school curriculum, etc.) Kenney said:

Biden’s climate change concerns are non-existent because the oilsands have reduced carbon emissions intensity per barrel by 30%. True, but total emissions increased by 23% between 2000-2018 due to a 53% increase in activity.
Canada’s emissions goals are more stringent than Biden’s. Not true. Canada was ahead of Trump’s standards but will fall behind when Biden reinstates the policies Trump gutted, enacts new fuel-efficiency standards, new methane emissions standards, and a new “social cost of carbon” metric as part of the cost-benefit analysis of government regulations. (Meanwhile back in Canada Kenney is trying to kill the federal carbon tax in the Supreme Court of Canada).
Trudeau should fight Biden as hard as he fought Trump over NAFTA and the steel and aluminum tariffs. The analogy doesn’t fit. Trudeau was not able to stop Trump from renegotiating NAFTA or imposing tariffs, all he could do was negotiate hard to get the best outcome for Canada. There is no room for negotiation with respect to the KXL permit, it’s either revoked or it isn’t.
If Trudeau fails to act, Kenney will go further on his Fair Deal demands. What’s left? Secession?
Damages/compensation

Kenney invested $1.5 billion in equity and put up $6 billion in loan guarantees repayable after KXL was completed. KXL is dead. The $1.5B and whatever was drawn against the loan guarantee is gone.

Kenney says he’ll sue for damages or compensation. Legal scholars say he’s unlikely to succeed.

Even if TC Energy succeeded in a NAFTA challenge and Kenney recouped some of his losses, KXL would not be built and all those jobs and oil revenues would not magically reappear.

What really happened

Kenney said he invested in KXL to offset the “political risk” of Trudeau not completing TMX, but he’s also admitted he’s “cautiously optimistic” TMX will be completed. The Trudeau political risk was not real.

Kenney said if he hadn’t invested in KXL the project would have died (so he boldly went where no sane investor would go?).

Kenney invested in an enterprise that was exposed to the risk of an election in a foreign jurisdiction where Democratic presidential hopefuls like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren were vying with Joe Biden for the leadership of the Democratic party. He placed a $1.5 billion dollar bet that regardless of who became the Democratic nominee, Trump would win the election.

Now that Biden has revoked the presidential permit—both TC Energy and the Building Trades of Alberta union say this was “predictable”—Kenney is desperately looking for someone to blame for his imprudence and hubris.

Well guess what, Albertans may have been distracted by Covid, the revocation of the Coal Policy, and a million other things, but we know Kenney’s bluster is not about the loss of jobs and oil revenues, it’s about the loss of Kenney’s credibility as a prudent financial manager and steward of Alberta taxpayer dollars.

It’s a simple as that.

[Guest]

Fi
Forget that shit
Here is the real problem with this country

[Guest]

Following is a blog post by a Calgary lawyer who has spent 26 years working in the oil industry. In her post she answers a number of questions that have been asked in this thread. She also contradicts a number of claims posters have made on this thread.

Many of you will disagree with most if not all she says, but I suggest you read and consider her arguments given her position and experience. Unless you understand and can actually refute an opponents position there is no way your position will be ever accepted.

Kenney’s (Bombastic) Response to Biden Cancelling KXL’s Permit
Posted on January 25, 2021 by susanonthesoapbox

On January 20 when the rest of the world was congratulating President Biden on his inauguration, Jason Kenney was attacking Biden’s character and threatening trade wars because Biden revoked Trump’s executive order approving KXL.

Not satisfied that he’d made his point, Kenney appeared on Fox TV and other media outlets to condemn Biden’s disrespectful treatment of “a Canadian government,” an ally and a friend.

Leaving aside the obvious fact that Kenney’s characterization of Alberta as “a Canadian government” is misleading—Alberta is a “subnational” government or “provincial” government, it is not the federal government and notwithstanding what Fox viewers may think, Kenney does not speak for Canada. Or all Albertans for that matter.

So what did he say?

Biden did something wrong

Kenney said Biden retroactively vetoed an existing pipeline.

Trump’s executive order approves the KXL border crossing facility (a 30” diameter pipeline including the first shut off valve or pumping station and appurtenances). This is part of an incomplete project, it is not an “existing pipeline.”

The order says it may be terminated, revoked, or amended at any time “in the sole discretion” of the President. Lawyers may argue about the meaning of “sole discretion” but it looks like Biden has the power to do what he did.

Kenney is fighting for Alberta’s energy industry and the jobs KXL would create

Let’s start with Alberta energy industry. Not one major oilsands producer has issued a press release condemning Biden’s actions.

While TC Energy issued a press release saying it’s “disappointed” and will consider its options, TC Energy’s CEO is not all over the airwaves complaining about being mistreated.

If Biden’s decision was such a big blow to the industry why isn’t the industry standing shoulder to shoulder with Kenney calling Biden out.

Ah, but what about all those lost jobs?

Kenney job loss numbers include American jobs and are overstated. He said 2000 people lost their jobs. TC Energy said it’s 1000, and many of those jobs were in the US.

Kenney said over 59,000 new jobs would have been created. TC Energy said of the 59,000 indirect jobs, only 17,000 were Canadian jobs, the remaining 42,000 were in the US. But hey, Mr Kenney, feel free to start a trade war over American jobs.

It’s Trudeau’s fault

Kenney said Biden wouldn’t have concluded Canada wouldn’t stand up for the industry if the federal (Trudeau) government had responded “with strength” when President Obama refused to issue the presidential permit in 2015.

Stephen Harper was prime minister when Obama rejected KXL’s new route in Jan 2012. Harper was PM when Obama vetoed the GOP bill approving KXL in Feb 2015. Trudeau was elected 2 days before Obama rejected the presidential permit for KXL in Nov 2015.

Harper had three years to bring Obama around. Trudeau had 2 days and by then it was too late. So tell me again which federal government failed to respond “with strength” to Obama’s intransigence.

The kitchen sink

In addition to arguing Biden disrespected Alberta by failing to consult with Canada prior to revoking the permit (this from the man who didn’t consult with Albertans on revoking the Coal Policy, teachers’ pensions, school curriculum, etc.) Kenney said:

Biden’s climate change concerns are non-existent because the oilsands have reduced carbon emissions intensity per barrel by 30%. True, but total emissions increased by 23% between 2000-2018 due to a 53% increase in activity.
Canada’s emissions goals are more stringent than Biden’s. Not true. Canada was ahead of Trump’s standards but will fall behind when Biden reinstates the policies Trump gutted, enacts new fuel-efficiency standards, new methane emissions standards, and a new “social cost of carbon” metric as part of the cost-benefit analysis of government regulations. (Meanwhile back in Canada Kenney is trying to kill the federal carbon tax in the Supreme Court of Canada).
Trudeau should fight Biden as hard as he fought Trump over NAFTA and the steel and aluminum tariffs. The analogy doesn’t fit. Trudeau was not able to stop Trump from renegotiating NAFTA or imposing tariffs, all he could do was negotiate hard to get the best outcome for Canada. There is no room for negotiation with respect to the KXL permit, it’s either revoked or it isn’t.
If Trudeau fails to act, Kenney will go further on his Fair Deal demands. What’s left? Secession?
Damages/compensation

Kenney invested $1.5 billion in equity and put up $6 billion in loan guarantees repayable after KXL was completed. KXL is dead. The $1.5B and whatever was drawn against the loan guarantee is gone.

Kenney says he’ll sue for damages or compensation. Legal scholars say he’s unlikely to succeed.

Even if TC Energy succeeded in a NAFTA challenge and Kenney recouped some of his losses, KXL would not be built and all those jobs and oil revenues would not magically reappear.

What really happened

Kenney said he invested in KXL to offset the “political risk” of Trudeau not completing TMX, but he’s also admitted he’s “cautiously optimistic” TMX will be completed. The Trudeau political risk was not real.

Kenney said if he hadn’t invested in KXL the project would have died (so he boldly went where no sane investor would go?).

Kenney invested in an enterprise that was exposed to the risk of an election in a foreign jurisdiction where Democratic presidential hopefuls like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren were vying with Joe Biden for the leadership of the Democratic party. He placed a $1.5 billion dollar bet that regardless of who became the Democratic nominee, Trump would win the election.

Now that Biden has revoked the presidential permit—both TC Energy and the Building Trades of Alberta union say this was “predictable”—Kenney is desperately looking for someone to blame for his imprudence and hubris.

Well guess what, Albertans may have been distracted by Covid, the revocation of the Coal Policy, and a million other things, but we know Kenney’s bluster is not about the loss of jobs and oil revenues, it’s about the loss of Kenney’s credibility as a prudent financial manager and steward of Alberta taxpayer dollars.

It’s a simple as that.

lucky your man didn't invest in it also , oh wait .......