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Canola,,, where we a goin' ? ? ?

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    #31
    Green for oilseeds, corn, wheat still not waking up.

    Brugler Marketing soybean comments;

    Soybeans are 10 to 17 cents per bushel higher this morning, despite the end of the last strike (Urgara) in Argentina’s soy export sector. Soybeans ended Thursday down by 4 3/4 to 6 1/2 cents, after seeing some double digit intraday losses. Preliminary OI suggests the soybean drops yesterday were some light profit taking, dropping a net 943 contracts. Soymeal futures ended the day down $3.80 to $6.10/ton. BO futures also rallied off the midday lows and closed less than 10 points lower. Malaysia has decided to delay full implementation of the B20 biodiesel blend requirement until 2022, presumably due to tight palm oil stocks and the highest prices since 2008. Ahead of USDA’s January reports, analysts surveyed have the Dec 1 soybean stocks at 2.92 bbu. For the MY ending stocks the trade is anticipating a further 36 mbu cut for an average estimate of 139 mbu. Production is estimated to be reduced to 4.158 bbu on an additional 0.2 bpa yield cut. USDA reported just 36,964 MT of sales from the weekly Export Sales report. That was a MY low and well below the range of estimates. China was switching unknown destinations bookings rather than buying additional cargos at $13 futures. Soymeal bookings were reported at 124,102 MT. BO bookings were a low 3,526 MT on the week ending 12/31. Monthly export data showed 407.72 mbu of soybeans shipped in November. November soymeal exports were 1.170 MMT according to monthly Census data. That was a 6-yr high for November. Soy oil shipments were 80,397 MT.

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      #32
      April - May full???

      Trading today makes me wonder whether interest in May is waning and moving to June - July already.

      A little early to drop the May, but July is discounted to May, so a move to July would be about a dollar/bus drop.

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        #33
        Bear spreading May July would have helped. Potential $21.30 was there since last TuesdayClick image for larger version

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          #34
          May canola sets new contract high this morning.

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            #35
            This is fun.

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              #36
              $18 spot today. Hauling my contracts all in. If we get some decent moisture out of this storm coming that could signal end of the drought trade for a while.

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                #37
                Wonder if it will take out March 21's 852.10?

                Meanwhile November 21 contract has a ways to go to reach the 2008 continuous chart's 769.30

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                  #38
                  Originally posted by jazz View Post
                  $18 spot today. Hauling my contracts all in. If we get some decent moisture out of this storm coming that could signal end of the drought trade for a while.
                  It’s a drought jazz
                  All the signs are there
                  Your storms not coming

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                    #39
                    $1.50/bu between may and july

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                      #40
                      Originally posted by caseih View Post
                      $1.50/bu between may and july
                      Yes I was a little right and now I am a lot wrong. May/July has gone way high

                      No one is buying physical canola based off the May that I know of.

                      V has a $2 discount for immediate delivery(if that's even possible) 15.57 against July delivery, 17.70

                      Nov erased 8.60 in 7 minutes.
                      Last edited by farming101; Apr 9, 2021, 10:33.

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                        #41
                        Some of us are still pricing off of May, so let her rip.

                        Click image for larger version

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                          #42
                          I hope that’s not a picture of the spaceship Columbia in 1986. It had an awesome takeoff but was in flames 73 seconds later..... It had a nasty crash and took 7 people down with it. And it never went up again. Wonder how many are still on board this one today???? I am enjoying the view as I float back down to Earth safely with the bags of money I’ve pulled out of the sky.

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                            #43
                            I’m debating whether I should flip my contract to July and pick up a +$70 on the basis.

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                              #44
                              Sounds good to me. I flipped the rest of mine for 19.00. May have another load left after the rest goes but don’t want to short myself. Third chance at 19.00. It’s hard to sell when that spaceship is on flames going down!!!!$$

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