Bumper Canola Crop

[jazz]

Statscan was out this morning at 18.7MMT.....I dont even grow canola

So thats a full million tonnes lower than last yrs crop, the harvest from hell. Lowest crop in 5 yrs.

And probably 50% of it precontracted or sold after harvest.

[bucket]

So thats a full million tonnes lower than last yrs crop, the harvest from hell. Lowest crop in 5 yrs.

And probably 50% of it precontracted or sold after harvest.

I think a lot was sold when an expert made the announcement of a bumper crop....you can thank Neil Townsend for a billion dollar reduction in gross revenue for farmers....

One adjective word for him ....incompetent


One noun.....asshole

[Oliver88]

It would be good to get a summary of all commodity expert estimates in August vs now.

[bucket]

It would be good to get a summary of all commodity expert estimates in August vs now.

It would be better to drop kick them all in the balls in a public square...

[biglentil]

Usually best to do the exact opposite of the 'experts'. I have not pre-booked or sold a single bushel yet.

[Guest]

So why doesn’t the WESTERN PRODUCER run an article on how far out they are ? Maybe interview them again ?

[ajl]

Still will have to revise down further as over estimation from the 18 and 19 crop has not washed out yet. Feed and waste category needs to expand due to heated canola not put into main stream market channels. This crop may well be smaller than my own estimates. Viterra's market advisory services are laughable. I get the emails but don't bother to read them. When a farmer tells you his crop went 40, it was actually 37.3 over the scale.,

[beaverdam]

So why doesn’t the WESTERN PRODUCER run an article on how far out they are ? Maybe interview them again ?

Except,,, who still reads it other than old retired farmers? Hasn't entered our house for 20 years.

[furrowtickler]

Lots of 5-6% dry canola , less bushels there .
It all adds up to lower stocks than predicted in August .

Regardless, good to see current reasonable prices finally 👍

[TASFarms]

How much canola did the wind take. You can see brevant’s equivalent to 233p had lots of pod drop in trails and farmers fields. Best canola at the snipe lake trail went 18 bushels/acre. Lowest was 9.

[Guest]

Still will have to revise down further as over estimation from the 18 and 19 crop has not washed out yet. Feed and waste category needs to expand due to heated canola not put into main stream market channels. This crop may well be smaller than my own estimates. Viterra's market advisory services are laughable. I get the emails but don't bother to read them. When a farmer tells you his crop went 40, it was actually 37.3 over the scale.,

36-37 is a real common number around here
And this is 50-55 bu country

[Oliver88]

Lots of 5-6% dry canola , less bushels there .
It all adds up to lower stocks than predicted in August .

Regardless, good to see current reasonable prices finally 👍

At $13/bushel canola you are giving up approximately $240 per point in a 42 tonne load.

9.9% vs 5.9% is a $960 difference. (If my math is correct.)

[tubs]

sold some today 13.49 a bu first sale 11.50 2nd sale 12.50 wonder if next sale be 14.50? I did let my marketing go last spring. I did not get an roi on those guys.

[beaverdam]

sold some today 13.49 a bu first sale 11.50 2nd sale 12.50 wonder if next sale be 14.50? I did let my marketing go last spring. I did not get an roi on those guys.

Hope your right, I'll tag along.