Canola

[beaverdam]

Dryness wallops Argentina's soy crop forecast, more cuts expected

https://leaderpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/dryness-wallops-argentinas-soy-crop-forecast-more-cuts-expected https://leaderpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/dryness-wallops-argentinas-soy-crop-forecast-more-cuts-expected

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I see palm oil made a new high today. After multiple attempts.

[Rareearth]

Strong global demand for vegetable oils pushed prices up after yesterday’s sell-off. There were sharp hikes in Chicago soyoil, Malaysian palm oil and European ****seed.

How does one think of the volumes that are traded daily on the ICE ?
Is there a disconnect in markets like these where the exporters stop using ICE for hedges and they just buy the physical? Seems to be a big disconnect between futures activities and the premiums and discounts for basis ( vs futures and grain company bid/offers).

If basis is normally freight, handling, elevation, profit and it’s normally -$25 to -$50 under the futures price, how can they post premium of + $60 ton ?

Point is 2 sets of books for the exporter, one more or less “public” using futures, and another set of books and rules for purchases and export sales.

[beaverdam]

A few years back I was talking with one of our local grainco input retailers, a good guy who is honest and likeable. I was commiserating to him about seeing the "posted" canola crush margins of $55-65/t, and suggesting they're taking too much from the farmer, as the basis was quite wide at the time. He kinda laughed at me and said the true margins were likely more than 3 times the amount I was speaking about.
Slip up, cat outta the bag I don't know,,, I still don't know.

[furrowtickler]

Partners, I just read this, Europe buying more than China, I think that’s rather reassuring 😊

“ European ****seed futures hit their highest value since 2012 as the May contract closed at 516.5 Euros per tonne. European ****seed stocks dropped to 8.7 million tonnes in January, which was down 400,000 tonnes from last year. This likely means that European demand for Canadian canola will be strong through the end of the crop year. This is one of the reasons that Canadian futures values are in rally mode is that supplies are being pulled out of the Prairies from both the east and west coast markets. Canola exports to Europe for the crop year to the end of January was 1.476 million tonnes which is slightly larger than the purchases from China.”

Strange how GMO canola is no longer an issue ...

[Rareearth]

Once the St Lawrence opens up in a couple of weeks, the bin bottom brooms will be worn out, and exports should increase?

At current export rate for canola (about 250,000 tons a week) Mike Jubinville says only 3 million tons are left to export ( if, if, if Stats Can numbers are right). That’s about 12 weeks.

There are 21 shipping weeks left in the year.

21 weeks left this year - 12 weeks at current export pace = 9 weeks with out canola (OVER TWO MONTHS)

Wonder what the carry over stocks will be?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Once the St Lawrence opens up in a couple of weeks, the bin bottom brooms will be worn out, and exports should increase?

At current export rate for canola (about 250,000 tons a week) Mike Jubinville says only 3 million tons are left to export ( if, if, if Stats Can numbers are right). That’s about 12 weeks.

There are 21 shipping weeks left in the year.

21 weeks left this year - 12 weeks at current export pace = 9 weeks with out canola (OVER TWO MONTHS)

Wonder what the carry over stocks will be?

If price keeps going in the right direction, they can probably even motivate me NOT to carry any over as I
usually do.

[furrowtickler]

They have been overinflating carry over stocks for at least two years ... they finally got caught .

[farming101]

Exports averaging 175 or so a week will take it till the end of the crop year. I doubt there will much of an export program for the whole month of August. Not unheard of

[farming101]

A few years back I was talking with one of our local grainco input retailers, a good guy who is honest and likeable. I was commiserating to him about seeing the "posted" canola crush margins of $55-65/t, and suggesting they're taking too much from the farmer, as the basis was quite wide at the time. He kinda laughed at me and said the true margins were likely more than 3 times the amount I was speaking about.
Slip up, cat outta the bag I don't know,,, I still don't know.

I am trying to work this out...I'm not sure you can look at the basis offered farmers by Canola buyers and draw a straight line to the price of canola oil and meal