Canola

[errolanderson]

Are we headed for a bit of a sell off. Its been quite a run.
Covid Xmas doldrums ahead.

I'm down/off about thirty cents a bushel from the peak. This is where I dig my heels in and ride it all the way to the bottom. Schtoopit thing is if I went to 100% sold from 60% I would still be higher priced on the 40% than "most" of what I already have priced. I told you guys obstinance and greed aren't good marketing qualities, now if I would only heed my own advice.

I wonder what a good general April rain would do to prices. I think the cupboard will essentially be bare by then. Everything priced may not be delivered but I doubt there will be much left to price.

Go to 80% old crop sold?

Use any spring rally, if there is one, or continued rise in futures to price newcrop? But as dry as it is in the Ghetto now, that would be a gargantuan display of hope and faith and possibly topped with a thick layer of schtoopitity.

Flash drop at the opening tonite . . . . March tested a low of $567 per tonne. Commodity markets are as solid as demand holds.

[farmaholic]

Flash drop at the opening tonite . . . . March tested a low of $567 per tonne. Commodity markets are as solid as demand holds.

Could technicals soon determine nearby direction rather than fun-da-mentals?

[TASFarms]

Flash drop at the opening tonite . . . . March tested a low of $567 per tonne. Commodity markets are as solid as demand holds.

Didn’t the same thing happen when it hit $550

[errolanderson]

[ATTACH]7190[/ATTACH]

Could technicals soon determine nearby direction rather than fun-da-mentals?

Combo of both (IMO) . . . . Corn now appears rolling over due to fallout in ethanol, then technicals kick in to drive selling. Funds have the hammer both up and down.

Remember, canola has already rallied $100 per tonne.

[farmaholic]

Combo of both (IMO) . . . . Corn now appears rolling over due to fallout in ethanol, then technicals kick in to drive selling. Funds have the hammer both up and down.

Remember, canola has already rallied $100 per tonne.

The second comment is probably at the forefront of speculators thoughts as well.

[farmaholic]

One of these times the Funds won't be able to help themselves.

[beaverdam]

Don't have a chart to post, but my memory is telling me that canola as a rule turns soft around mid Dec and normally stays that way till the second week of Jan. With all the strong buying during the last couple weeks, maybe the slump will come a week earlier?

[farmaholic]

RSN21 had a $15/tonne swing today.

[beaverdam]

RSN21 had a $15/tonne swing today.

I'm a bit nervous about holding till July this year, even though some years in the past, we've done very well holding to July. But I also know there are years they won't chase bin bottoms and small amounts, rather than keep bidding it up, they'll drop the price like a rock and shut down for maintenance, if your still holding expect it to drop fast. JMHO
I don't think we'll be holding anything till July this year, last rally might be Mar-Apr this year.

Not making any recommendations. as cottenpickin would say,,, DYOD!

[LEP]

Hope it rains in May.

I would bet 75% of the current year, (20/21) crop has been delivered or contracted.
This is in the first 25% of our crop year.
Record rail movement and shipping

I believe there is down side risk yes, but how far and for how long? Not long. This would creat even more grower selling. Prices are related to supply and demand, if every one sells early, this leaves more time for price strength

Once Sask farmer comes clean and lets us know when he is selling I’ll consider selling the remaining balance on our farm. I assume his vision, savvy, cash flows are as good and better than most.

Hmm, I don't know. If it's like his land where it's worth $2,500 and he wants $4,700. He may be holding out for $23.50 even though the price is $12.50.