AAFC 2005 Corn Imports?

[rain]

This time last year producers where booking -2 to option delivered the wheat futures delivered Calgary region.

Tom try not to be to bearish. Maybe this is the year to watch and wait for thefeed market to come to you.

[TOM4CWB]

Rain;

The only way corn exports could rise... is if barley and wheat prices are high in the latter part of 04 as well...

CWB Market choice will be needed for higher prices for this year... but a certain mentality has already entered the public domain... it is now inevitable.

[rain]

Tom I have know idea what you just said.

[charliep]

Just a note I am not necessarily that negative on feed grain prices. Just a note that there are a number of factors at play (not all positive for prices). A value added industry I do have concern for is the malt sector with none of the proper new crop signals able to get through the CWB fog factor.

[crusher]

Charlie,

Are you suggesting barley (malt) could be a sleeper because the new crop PRO on select is so low? How do I justify/handle the risk of planting malt type barley vs CPS that I can book at $3.75? I hadn't planned on any barley acres yet, even though they are usually 10% of our acres.

[charliep]

Crusher

Don't know how to answer your question. The malt market for the most part is out of western Canada's control with the better crop in Australia this past six months and unknowns around this summer's crop in Northern hemisphere regions.

There is a 75 % chance the current PRO is low. Having said that, I am moving to the point where I put more weight on what the market will pay versus what someone forecasts it will be. I know from a birdie that new crop malt barley asking prices are in the $195 to $225/tonne range (port) versus a PRO of $176 (2 row special select). I would a lot rather be talking about a committed malt barley defered delivery contract of $3.25 to $3.75/bushel versus a promised PRO of $2.85/bushel. Then I could help you with your question.

[rain]

Hey Charlie we can do $2.80 FOB Bin new crop feed barley. I bet if producers started selling malt barley for feed in Southern AB the PRO would increase. As a matter of fact I know it would.

[charliep]

Looking for people's thoughts on feed grains. As a hedger, I would encourage starting the process of scale up selling feed grains. Unless I was in an area that achieved the higher grades of hard red spring wheat/durum and malt barley 4 years out of 5, I would grow higher yielding mid quality wheats/feed barley. Finally, I don't think I would grow malt barley on spec. but would rather be visiting maltsters/grain companies to check out their commitment/programs they are willing to offer.

Others thoughts.