Seasonal Canola

[farming101]

Appears to be in a new trading range.

I agree. However I have some reservations about great advances in cash prices till the new year. And of course that's far enough off that no one knows what will be happening then.
The market is supplied quite well for now.
Farma threw the whole complex into a tailspin when he put another 20% of his stocks on the market and hasn't returned to those levels since. Good going btw....
Update on the opening post chart:

[farmaholic]

I wish.

[Oliver88]

Farmaholic likely caused market chaos for sure by pulling the trigger.

Is the next sell at $540 January Futures?

[farmaholic]

Would "range bound" be such a bad thing at these values?

Always looking for more in the Ghetto.

[farmaholic]

Not much carry in the futures between March and May and none at the moment between May and July.

$15.50 from Nov to July.

[Rareearth]

Could it be, the exporters trying to secure volumes now? They are booking the sales now and margin vs wait it the weeds with all the uncertainty. More profit in canola than cereals.

Wouldn’t it be interesting to know what percentage of the grain inventory has actually been sold or committed to a sale through contract.

We can see through the grain commission actual farmer deliveries. Roughly 25% of the crop has been delivered so far this year. Has 50 % or more actually been contracted with growers ( to cover nov, Dec, deliveries) ?

IF it’s a dry spring, no subsoil moisture, expensive seed, fertilizer well you know, July could be interesting, throw in cold winter where trains can’t run or heavy snow. Prices never go up unless farmers slow down on deliveries, regardless of the demand. Need more agrivillers to sell now, Farma need company ( buy calls), then deliveries can be squeezed (always allowing a trickle into the system) must always trickle or buyers look elsewhere, and exporters get frustrated ( bins locked or farmers sold out). This works as long as there are no substitution options (beans)

Anyway, producer deliveries of physical canola are up about 25% over last year, in a average to below average crop production year. Cash flow, demand and uncertainty etc all contributing to strong markets ( yes I’ve sold some as well, just didn’t see this coming in June).

[Oliver88]

Would "range bound" be such a bad thing at these values?

Always looking for more in the Ghetto.

Canola up again, you will be living well in the ghetto.

What is the next level of resistance 101, Errol, Techanalyst, Macdon and others?

[farmaholic]

Is this going to be a year we see some positive basis sooner or later?

[blackpowder]

It would appear so.

[furrowtickler]

I hope so, all the charts 101 put up 3 months ago are showing true 👍... so far