Wheat market

[malleefarmer]

WASDE data that predicts world wheat ending stocks will reach record levels of 316MMT in 2020/21.

Macdon02 errorl farma ab sask any comments

[farmaholic]

WASDE data that predicts world wheat ending stocks will reach record levels of 316MMT in 2020/21.

Macdon02 errorl farma ab sask any comments

My anecdotal BS is meaningless.

I'll defer to the people in the know.

Although I'm very happy buyers were able to find homes for as much "feed" quality wheat as they did.

I left 85 cents per bushel on the table on the first round I sold. With as much crap quality as Western Canada produced last fall and how much was left out over winter I thought the bottom was going to fall out of the feed wheat market.

I was wrong

[errolanderson]

Just good growing conditions globally right now. Europe has received excellent rainfall, Russia dryness concerns of two months ago have eased and U.S. conditions are near greenhouse-like.

USDA projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2020-21 @ 925 million bu as compared to the trade estimate of 904 million bu. Global wheat 2020-21 ending stocks come in @ 316 million MT as compared to the trade estimate of 307.5 million MT. This pressured Kansas City after release of report yesterday.

U.S. corn stockpile is also projected to be a record. Don't see much more downside, but certainly not much upside in U.S. corn prices right now.

Soybeans globally were slightly bullish with 2020-21 stock pegged @ 96 million MT as compared to trade estimate around 100 million MT.

[macdon02]

Until we get that moment in spring prior to seeding when absolutely nothing pencils, this downward spiral will continue. The rally of 2008 took 18 months from start to finish and it went vertical from flat. I suspect since that was relatively recent, this time will look completely different, a spike lower to start. Im keeping one eye on currency as recently the Brazilian producer was selling record high prices, during a low in soy futures, this type of stuff can provide the fuel for a noticeable rally. But realistically speaking, supplies are burdensome, demand is static at best. There's less mouths to feed and the gassing of feathers and snouts is going to have a long tail. Sell every 50 cent bounce. $6 chi front month futures is still my line in the sand, bearish to bullish. $4.39 corn and $10.63 soy

[errolanderson]

Until we get that moment in spring prior to seeding when absolutely nothing pencils, this downward spiral will continue. The rally of 2008 took 18 months from start to finish and it went vertical from flat. I suspect since that was relatively recent, this time will look completely different, a spike lower to start. Im keeping one eye on currency as recently the Brazilian producer was selling record high prices, during a low in soy futures, this type of stuff can provide the fuel for a noticeable rally. But realistically speaking, supplies are burdensome, demand is static at best. There's less mouths to feed and the gassing of feathers and snouts is going to have a long tail. Sell every 50 cent bounce. $6 chi front month futures is still my line in the sand, bearish to bullish. $4.39 corn and $10.63 soy

'Sell the carry in corn futures' . . . is a comment by several U.S. analysts. Carry (price spread between the futures) will leak out over time. March corn is $3.55/bu while July is at $3.30/bu . . . 25 cent/bu carry. U.S. growers are likely already doing this (deferred hedging) . . . .

[malleefarmer]

Pocket in oz struggling pockets in western Canada struggling to dry or to wet but generally world seems 8/10 unusual to be constantly quite good across the globe.

Thing can turn bad on a dime or get even better

[malleefarmer]

Hopefully not a sore point.

The peak of wheat market back in April mostly currency driven 56 cents here.

Fowards got to $355 nov dec delivery standard wheat with grade spreads but 355 the base.

Did you guys have similar opportunities? Or most of you do derivative based selling not physical.

Open markets provide opportunities and volatility.

Ps currently new seasons fowards 298

[furrowtickler]

Just curious your guys thoughts on the heavier than normal monsoons in India and the recent flooding rains in a huge area in China ...


Maybe it’s nothing but there is nearly 3 billion people in those countries and a lot of Ag production.

[malleefarmer]

Good for Canada bad for Australia we are in China sin bin at moment.

Telling students tourists not to come here blockingvtrade etc etc all because pm suggested a international enquiry into cv19 and WHO involvement if any.

And he did it in a nice diplomatic way not a rant or rave.

[malleefarmer]

Snap shot from me Australia average to a slightly above all crop prospects.

West Australia is dryIsh but still time for them

Pockets everywhere actually of dry each state.

Seems USA crop going ok despite headlines every so often and EU Black Sea etc bit the same dry spots good spots probably end up just making average.

Canada on a whole good bad ugly but you will make average as a whole co7ntry?

Prices easing here for new season basically $270 on farm wheat barley feed $220.

Domestic will rule the roost again here most likely.