get ready to make some money

[canolacrazy]

whitecap actually doubled their revenue over Q1 2019, mainly because of hedge gains. these were recorded at $47 US or $61 CDN. however they recorded a property, plant and equipment impairment of $2.8 billion which sunk the first quarter. I think you'll find most companies throwing all the bad news into the first quarter as they are compelled to report anything that might go down in value. you'll see the same thing with the banks as they take loan loss provisions due to lower house prices, or other loans they might not collect on. the thing is that as things improve, these impairments get reported back on the revenue side as a gain, which boosts earnings. I guess i'm hoping that the upward oil price trend continues, due to a supply shock, as the economy starts to come back.

[jazz]

All those juniors are about to be delisted from the TSX. Going to be pretty hard to fund a comeback without access to capital.

If you want to bet on oil, buy an integrated with US exposure. Suncor

[canolacrazy]

this forum is set up to exchange ideas in commodity marketing. jazz, I agree that Suncor is a good choice to go the integrated route. however, I think there is more upside from the well run smaller players right now who have hedged production at profitable prices. I think whitecap has hedged close to 20,000 barrels a day at a minimum of $60Cdn, right through to the end of the year. I know i'm rolling the dice a bit, but i'm betting that oil is coming back stronger than expected and the capital gain will be very good. after farming for as many years as I have and taking on that risk every spring, this is child's play, at only about $1.70/share.
as I said, i'm also saying to think about locking in some lentil fall prices, and pretty soon durum, to cover some expenses. however, I still believe 35cent red lentils and $11 durum will show up before year end. add to that some pretty good fuel prices and full storage tanks going into seeding to help on the expense side, and things are setting up better this year than the last few.

[Oliver88]

Oil stocks on NYSE and crude oil up today.

[canolacrazy]

good to have filled the tanks in april.

whitecap up 16% today, 70% in 3 weeks.

[TASFarms]

good to have filled the tanks in april.

whitecap up 16% today, 70% in 3 weeks.

Very strange how oil has gone up as the storage tanks around the world fill to the brim. If that’s was grain the price would still be going down

[canolacrazy]

sometimes it's good to look back. whitecap resources has doubled since i bought at $1.50/share in the spring, red lentils are getting close at around .30 cents, i nailed canola at $13. however i'm a little short on durum at $11 but heading in the right direction. hrsw at $10?
forget about that one. and oil at $75/barrel. in dreamland. however, with the crazy things happening in the world, we're not done with 2020 yet.

[Oliver88]

Overall canolacrazy had some very good predictions. I didn’t hear many people calling for $13 canola this year.

Very good on canola and oil company stocks. Wheat is the weird commodity that doesn’t want to significantly increase.

[ry0972]

Ya it is sounding like wheat prices will lag well behind all other crops through 2021 into early 2022.
Really not much if any premium for protein now.
A drought in North America may help prices but lower yields will keep $/acre returns low?
Not much for optimism in wheat markets.

[canolacrazy]

Overall canolacrazy had some very good predictions. I didn’t hear many people calling for $13 canola this year.

Very good on canola and oil company stocks. Wheat is the weird commodity that doesn’t want to significantly increase.

Thanks Oliver. sometimes it's better to be lucky than smart. i do enjoy it when people step out to make predictions on this site. makes for good conversation. always like to see errol's comments and others follow-up. Canola and soybeans leading the way, along with flax. i guess china is driving the market in everything. makes you wonder what they are up to.

i still like whitecap. seems like a well run company. their balance sheet is solid. they've already aquired two small companies since i wrote about them last spring. today, trading at $5.45/share. all analysts say should get to $6 with oil now hovering close to $60 wti. starting to generate a lot of free cash flow which should mean buying back their own stock, increasing dividends, or both.

I'm hearing new crop durum is now at about $8/bushel. Canola to $12. hard to not sell some at that price to cover some expenses of the combine.