Why Go To Spain to Run With the Bulls

**charliep** · Feb 25, 2004, 12:31

Things have turned interesting. Still encouraged everyone to have targets and sell some (not necessarily all) when achieved. This is particularly the case on new crop. Given the 2004/05 PRO forecasts, canola is the most profitable game in town. Acres are going to rocket higher. A suggestion of a good friend (Greg Kostal/Sparks) is to start new crop pricing at $375/tonne (November futures) with 5 % of expected production and sell additional 5 % for every $5/tonne increment. Your ideas may be different but the point is to have a plan and be willint to execute when targets achieved.

**rain** · Feb 25, 2004, 12:51

Charlie what was the crop insurance basis and futures they used for last year spring price endorsement for canola?

**charliep** · Feb 25, 2004, 14:44

November futures. $15/tonne under. Same calculation this year. Checked AFSC and the 2004 coverage prices have not been posted yet.

**rain** · Feb 25, 2004, 14:46

Do you know when the new rate will be posted?

**Incognito** · Feb 25, 2004, 23:16

Basis levels are widening. Don't get greedy and sell into a rising market.

Right now beans are driving this thing, $1.20 up in a week, on crop worries in South America. Argentine is forecast for rain and it is just Brazil we are watching now. This could be a wild case of buy the rumour - sell the fact if worries do not come to fruition. Watch export sales in the morning - Chinese cancellations putting more supply back into the US will make it ugly.

A month ago, people were praying for $8.00 canola. Now we are at $9.00 . Do the fiscally prudent thing for your farm and protect some of your long cash position by selling this rally. If you keep moving your trigger up 25 cents, you will never hit it.

**rain** · Feb 25, 2004, 23:40

Canola basis for June July .64 to 4.00. Basis is narrowing

**rain** · Feb 25, 2004, 23:46

This is .64 and 4.00 over July

**boone** · Feb 25, 2004, 23:51

incognito:good advice 'rhetorically' speaking, but farmers that grow canola think they are above the laws of good reason! In another time they would have all been gunslingers...............................in boot hill.

**Incognito** · Feb 26, 2004, 02:49

basis levels in Sk at both crushers widened the last two days...

Who has the 4.00 July?

Why Go To Spain to Run With the Bulls