Good quality durum

[Kevinglyfos]

Since this is supposed to be a commodity thread do any of u guys have any views on pricing on good quality durum where do u think price will go interrsted in your opionins

[bucket]

393 a tonne (10.7 a bushel)asking at West coast....8.30 a bushel on prairies at JGL was the highest I have seen

[helmsdale]

Prices seem to be drifting lower...

There's the odd local spike, when orders have to be filled, but I seriously don't see much price movement until spring seeding intentions are posted, and even then possibly till new crop starts to give good indications as to quantity and quality.

$8 is dragging enough #1 out of bins, it's even pulling some held over from previous years provided it weighs up. Know of a guy with numerous bins of 2016 "fuzzy" durum that they'll take as a #1 this year. It's all contracted to go.

[bigzee]

With wheat prices at very low levels, anyone that was bullish wheat in 19 and grew lots will now retreat back to durum. IMO durum acres will be huge.
Off topic somewhat, canola acres will be going up considerably due to high levels of root rot.
Lentils and peas are going to be taking an 8 year hyatus. I’ve seen fields where there wouldn’t be 10 acres you could grow on a quarter.

[helmsdale]

With wheat prices at very low levels, anyone that was bullish wheat in 19 and grew lots will now retreat back to durum. IMO durum acres will be huge.
Off topic somewhat, canola acres will be going up considerably due to high levels of root rot.
Lentils and peas are going to be taking an 8 year hyatus. I’ve seen fields where there wouldn’t be 10 acres you could grow on a quarter.

Were typically warm and dry here. Not necessarily prime root rot territory, but a few are starting to wonder if it's showing up. Virgin dirt will produce peas very well, fields with a couple crops of peas over the last 8 years or so, seem to struggle. Something's up.

[LEP]

Not a wheat guy. But I have read that HRW plantings are at a 110 year low in US and snow cover in fsu is very thin or non existent. May be some optimistism yet.

[bigzee]

Not a wheat guy. But I have read that HRW plantings are at a 110 year low in US and snow cover in fsu is very thin or non existent. May be some optimistism yet.

We here doom and gloom all winter, this happening that happening, lowest acres in centuries now not decades. End result prices never really seem to rally on any so called “bullish” news.
Price dictates acres and that why I see big durum acres coming in 2020.
Good quality durum should much higher today, but countries got used of buying lower quality stuff and were happy at how it turned out in their pasta. Buying it cheaper is what it’s all about.

[helmsdale]

. End result prices never really seem to rally on any so called “bullish” news.

Was thinking this the other day... the idea that computers can't trade on it till the USDA publishes it.

The flip side is that if algo's ever sense a legit reason to rally, they'll likely blow it to all time highs in short order.

[Daylate]

Ya. Im thinking a spring to early summer rally will spike it into the 8.50 to 9 range. There will be a lot less good quality by then. And always seems yo be a weather scare. And they like loading thunder bay back up then. Problem is we need our yankees to complete for it to really get legs under it. Weather and good exports will keep it inflated. We just gotta be patient.

[jazz]

You wont see much past $8 bucks unless another weather event comes to pass. North Africa is having some issues with a smaller crop. That could factor.

Italy is a buyer again and will be active after the new year.

And now I read SE asian countries buy lower quality durum with high protiens to feed fish.

There are all sorts of markets to pry open if we didn't have virtual retards running this country.

https://www.agcanada.com/daily/late-north-american-durum-faces-quality-downgrades Late North American durum faces quality downgrades