Baby boomers, risk, investing, equities and demographics

[macdon02]

https://youtu.be/5OFaZcC0lRU

It's 48 min but if your in a piece of equipment it's food for thought and better then CBC or Gormley after dark. If you are under 50 yr old, it's a must watch imo.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks for posting. The elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about. Meanwhile, cities, and businesses and countries will keep going bankrupt trying to pay for what is clearly impossible. And unions will keep demanding more.

I recently attended a funeral and met a bunch of my former teachers. One couple was quite proud of the fact that they have now been retired for 3 years longer than they worked. 33 years, vs. 30 years. I made the comment that if I had learned more math skills in grade 6, I might conclude that there was something unsustainable about that...

[macdon02]

Thanks for posting. The elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about. Meanwhile, cities, and businesses and countries will keep going bankrupt trying to pay for what is clearly impossible. And unions will keep demanding more.

I recently attended a funeral and met a bunch of my former teachers. One couple was quite proud of the fact that they have now been retired for 3 years longer than they worked. 33 years, vs. 30 years. I made the comment that if I had learned more math skills in grade 6, I might conclude that there was something unsustainable about that...

If Raoul is correct on his consumption models, which I believe to be correct, the statement that there's zero risk of inflation in the current environment leads us as producers the only hope of increased grain prices is going to be through lack of supply and not demand. This is the big picture i think everyone needs to keep in mind moving forward. It'll only be on the back of fewer bushels that prices will increase. Whether those fewer bushels hits home or not I have no idea.

[macdon02]

We "should" get an absolute tooth rattler of a correction in equities that's gonna flush the boomer generation out before equities as they see their retirement vanishing which will be a buy of a lifetime. But long term as millennials keep buying the dip, i think there's more upside in equities then down. The US is keeping the world afloat at present and European and Asian $'s are fleeing home at a staggering rate, it isn't so much for the aspect of owning US companies as the currency itself, its a double banger.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If Raoul is correct on his consumption models, which I believe to be correct, the statement that there's zero risk of inflation in the current environment leads us as producers the only hope of increased grain prices is going to be through lack of supply and not demand. This is the big picture i think everyone needs to keep in mind moving forward. It'll only be on the back of fewer bushels that prices will increase. Whether those fewer bushels hits home or not I have no idea.

While I agree that there is zero risk of inflation for Americans, relatively speaking, the rest of us could see massive inflation of anything priced in USD, even while the real price of those items goes down.

If Armstrong (amongst many others) is remotely correct, the cooling period we are into will be the trigger for reduced supply. 2019 productions problems in North America are almost spooky considering the projections he made.

A lot of pieces, get the commodities right, but the currency wrong, or vice versa, and could still be wrong.

[iceman]

One thing that keeps rolling around in my head is the Chinese’s one child policy for all those years. That has to have massive consequences at some point.

How many years has it been now that japan has been selling more adult diapers than infant diapers? Must be at least 4 now.

Iceman

[AlbertaFarmer5]

One thing that keeps rolling around in my head is the Chinese’s one child policy for all those years. That has to have massive consequences at some point.

How many years has it been now that japan has been selling more adult diapers than infant diapers? Must be at least 4 now.

Iceman

It already is. And it has all but guaranteed that China will never evolve to a consumption driven economy, and that their economic peak is already behind them.

[iceman]

It already is. And it has all but guaranteed that China will never evolve to a consumption driven economy, and that their economic peak is already behind them.

I agree with that. Big trouble brewing in Hong Kong right now, closed capital accounts, Jack Ma retires and turns over a large ownership stake to unknown people. China0men Billionaires showing up dead in brazier ways. They can’t even live long enough to smuggle the money out to buy beside Wiseguy

Iceman

[iceman]

So japan and China are basically headed for demographic cliff but to my understanding their immigration is basically zero. Aging population, low birth rate, zero immigration. This is a ticking bomb waiting to go off.

Iceman

[macdon02]

One thing that keeps rolling around in my head is the Chinese’s one child policy for all those years. That has to have massive consequences at some point.

How many years has it been now that japan has been selling more adult diapers than infant diapers? Must be at least 4 now.

Iceman

Worldwide demographics are horrendous and it doesn't get more obvious then christmas dinner. Would immigration be required if abortion was not legalized? Idk, and i doubt anyone does. Less births are an increasing trend. Maybe we need a Muslim supreme court?

AF5 there's one thing I'm finding with Armstrong, he's got the big picture correct, the trend, but short term timing is poor. What I was told in 2016 is only starting to hit now. Was it useless information? Absolutely not. It's just easier to recognize a top or bottom then the counter moves in between that tend to flush out the weak of heart. The rally in bonds and gold is a false move, give gold 3 months from the time it broke past 1362 and see what happens, it'll either be proven legit or it breaks. Solid advice I was told, figure out the big picture and the smaller will be obvious. If you know where USD, equities, Gold and bonds are going, it'll be clear where we are headed on grains. When the inverse relationships give way, you know it's time to pay attention. One of the easiest signals ive found in canola, the July high, it hasnt been happening. When it comes back to the weekly and monthly charts, we can be assured that the traditional selling seasons will return. I see no benefit in #binittowinit until we get a harvest low in combination with a July high beforehand. The scary part of a rising USD, even though it isn't as fast as gold, but they are both moving upward in combination at present, rising oil and gold prices, tend to be positive for CAD, so like the yen above, we could see no benefit from a rising dollar. The loon is only portion of the dollar index and this opens up the possibly we continue rising on the back of the dollar. Everything is coiling at present and there's a massive shock coming. It's what I see at current, fwiw. Only possibilities.

[SASKFARMER]

good post.

[jazz]

Couple things missed in this vid. While the millenials are a smaller group than BB, Zeihan says there is just enough of them in the US to skirt a serious recession.

An equity crash could happen but remember wall street sruvived the great depression and two world wars. If the average person with 40-50k in the market pulls it out thats not going to be devastating. A drag but new money is coming into the US market from all over the world. Most of my equities are US firms.