Where is this surplus ???

[Sheepwheat]

I know there are a lot of market “experts” who follow these threads .
Where is this surplus of grains and oilseeds ?? Should be easy to answer , no ?

Devils advocate here. Other times on here and other forums, many guys have stated they never sell all old crop supplies and carry lots over.

Now no one admits this? Just asking? Don’t mean to sound callous, but most guys I know certainly carry over some crop???

[bucket]

Devils advocate here. Other times on here and other forums, many guys have stated they never sell all old crop supplies and carry lots over.

Now no one admits this? Just asking? Don’t mean to sound callous, but most guys I know certainly carry over some crop???

You always keep enough to seed one or two more crops...

[Marusko]

Devils advocate here. Other times on here and other forums, many guys have stated they never sell all old crop supplies and carry lots over.

Now no one admits this? Just asking? Don’t mean to sound callous, but most guys I know certainly carry over some crop???

You think there's that many? We certainly don't, except for seed and the last 5-10 tonnes that's not worth making a trip to the elevator for.

I did have a random conversation at a gas station this spring with a guy from the peace region who said he hadn't sold any 2018 canola cause he was holding on for, $12, I think?... I wonder where he's at now.

[furrowtickler]

If and that’s a big if , there is that much grain and oilseeds on farm why are bin sales virtually non existent for this new crop ? Something does not add up at all

[Partners]

Just when the price is shit it goes lower.
Off the combine last fall we had move 3 semis at 10.50..
Thought price was a joke..
So is 9.50 a good one this fall?

[Partners]

If and that’s a big if , there is that much grain and oilseeds on farm why are bin sales virtually non existent for this new crop ? Something does not add up at all

Very true..but the price stays the same..

[Sheepwheat]

I used to clean seed in winter. I was always amazed at the rich, ahem, well established farmers talking about how much grain they had sitting in storage. It blew my mind. Many, many times guys on here have said they are building bins because it pays to store. They would chuckle and say how they missed the peak, and say they just will store until it comes back up.

Again, devils advocate. I have heard these conversations too many times to count. Guys miss a market peak, and sit on it. There are a pile of farmers who don’t HAVE to sell for two, three four years if they don’t want to. At least around here. I think this is where the inventory comes from?

Good friend of mine sold a bit of wheat over 7 bucks, also canola crashed, he said heck with it, price dropped and he held the rest. He can afford to wait indefinitely. He has cash to seed at least two crops without harvesting or selling a bushel. Small farmer, no debt, no payments.

Crazy, but I think there is way more of this than we maybe accept.

Other thread guys said what about opportunity cost? If you got no payments and cash to farm for years, and inventory in the bins, who the heck cares about opportunity cost?

[Guest]

We used to
Try not to anymore
Bin space to dear and i hate bags

[Partners]

No fear canola will make it.
Accu weather first frost end of Sept...
But Sept will be a cold bitch...

[the big wheel]

I used to clean seed in winter. I was always amazed at the rich, ahem, well established farmers talking about how much grain they had sitting in storage. It blew my mind. Many, many times guys on here have said they are building bins because it pays to store. They would chuckle and say how they missed the peak, and say they just will store until it comes back up.

Again, devils advocate. I have heard these conversations too many times to count. Guys miss a market peak, and sit on it. There are a pile of farmers who don’t HAVE to sell for two, three four years if they don’t want to. At least around here. I think this is where the inventory comes from?

Good friend of mine sold a bit of wheat over 7 bucks, also canola crashed, he said heck with it, price dropped and he held the rest. He can afford to wait indefinitely. He has cash to seed at least two crops without harvesting or selling a bushel. Small farmer, no debt, no payments.

Crazy, but I think there is way more of this than we maybe accept.

Other thread guys said what about opportunity cost? If you got no payments and cash to farm for years, and inventory in the bins, who the heck cares about opportunity cost?

When was this that you cleaned grain? Maybe in your area but please don’t make a general statement about the whole unless you’ve cleaned throughout the province. Was it this year? Interesting you make these comments when you don’t grow canola just like you spoke about wheat when you didn't even sell to the board anyway.

There is no way they would have extended the advances unless there’s was some big shit happenning with big cases of advances. When companies went broke and fcc and banks wanted their money I bet advances were last in the list. That’s just one scenario. It makes zero sense to hold canola into this market although I don’t think there is such a problem getting rid of the canola as they say either. I think it’s a case of low carry over and a screw job by the grain cos and crushers I don’t see canola oil going down or is it?