Corn: A Game Changer . . . .

[errolanderson]

Errol, I've been watching lumber futures for a while now with the big run up this winter, then the big fall and now it's seems very choppy. This seems unusual, how big a factor do hurricanes, tornadoes, and forest fires have on the lumber futures, and do hedge funds speculate in this commodity.

rumrocks . . . lumber is a thinly traded contract and speculators getting caught on the-wrong-side of a market move can pay a heavy price. My suggestion is trade as if a margin call is always imminent or simply 'stay away' from this contract. Even protective stop orders can get run.

Natural disasters do impact, but buyer enthusiasm can drive prices beyond fundamentals quickly. Given the thin volume, hedge funds likely don't participate too heavily. Sorry I'm such a bummer on this one, but don't want to see investors take an unsuspecting tumble.

[malleefarmer]

One can expect market togo sideways or drift lower?

Until exact acres planted are known yields of all crops then chuck in production issues that happen all over the world each year.

So about were market is today is about the way its gonna be in my opinion,but will trade up and down to this level, just domestic basis will affect prices for each of you locally.

Last year australia worst year in history world markets hardly blinked sadly same will happen with canadian production issues in 2019.

But we had domestic basis which pushed wheat and barley anywere from $70 to 125 over world prices at times.

[Guest]

that won't ever happen here, canada doesn't matter

[malleefarmer]

that won't ever happen here, canada doesn't matter

you must have domestic flour mills feedlots and milk industry that uses grain thats all that pushed prices up in oz last year nothing more nothing less

[TechAnalyst]

Just a heads up on the US planting progress reports that could have significant implications for the grain and oilseed markets this Friday.

There is much confusion and scepticism over the 92% seeded amount for corn. No one can figure out how with it being so dire a situation.

The USDA has been defending itself by explaining that is the percent a farmer has seeded of what he expects to. Not a percent of the seeding intentions report.

In short, if a farmer gives up after seeding half of his expected acreage, he is 100% complete seeding that crop for the progress report.

Back to the market impact this coming Friday. The USDA feels they will have a good handle on the prevent plant acres for the final seeded acreage report. Given the trade has been working on the idea that 92% of the 92.8 mil ac was seeded (85.3 mil), there could be a dramatic push higher if it comes out closer to 80 mil ac given the amount of acres abandoned.

This could be exaggerated by the cool, wet conditions of the spring which will surely reduce yield on what did get in.

As Errol said, a rising tide lifts all boats. If corn pushes higher, it should help many markets.

[furrowtickler]

Just a heads up on the US planting progress reports that could have significant implications for the grain and oilseed markets this Friday.

There is much confusion and scepticism over the 92% seeded amount for corn. No one can figure out how with it being so dire a situation.

The USDA has been defending itself by explaining that is the percent a farmer has seeded of what he expects to. Not a percent of the seeding intentions report.

In short, if a farmer gives up after seeding half of his expected acreage, he is 100% complete seeding that crop for the progress report.

Back to the market impact this coming Friday. The USDA feels they will have a good handle on the prevent plant acres for the final seeded acreage report. Given the trade has been working on the idea that 92% of the 92.8 mil ac was seeded (85.3 mil), there could be a dramatic push higher if it comes out closer to 80 mil ac given the amount of acres abandoned.

This could be exaggerated by the cool, wet conditions of the spring which will surely reduce yield on what did get in.

As Errol said, a rising tide lifts all boats. If corn pushes higher, it should help many markets.

The pictures of corn from 4 states that were posted on here don’t lie .... experts and usda do

[errolanderson]

U.S. crop progress even slower-than-expected and conditions decline week over week. Corn condition rating at 57% GTE (59% GTE last week). Soybean planting at 85% (88% expected, 77% last week, 100% last year and 95% 5-year average). Soybean rating now at 54% GTE (59% expected, 75% GTE last year).

[bucket]

U.S. crop progress even slower-than-expected and conditions decline week over week. Corn condition rating at 57% GTE (59% GTE last week). Soybean planting at 85% (88% expected, 77% last week, 100% last year and 95% 5-year average). Soybean rating now at 54% GTE (59% expected, 75% GTE last year).

And how do you think western canada's crop is fairing with little moisture for the first 50 days of development...

There are 6 inch high crops in rows and heading out....cant even make cattle feed out of it...

[Guest]

And how do you think western canada's crop is fairing with little moisture for the first 50 days of development...

There are 6 inch high crops in rows and heading out....cant even make cattle feed out of it...

No,no , no
Mustnt talk that way ?
Never ever say bad things about cdn crops
Just change the subject instead
First 50 days dont matter ffs
It rained , its a record crop. Cant you see

[bucket]

No,no , no
Mustnt talk that way ?
Never ever say bad things about cdn crops
Just change the subject instead
First 50 days dont matter ffs
It rained , its a record crop. Cant you see

You may be being sarcastic....but the fact is this crop is ****ed big time.......

[Guest]

You may be being sarcastic....but the fact is this crop is ****ed big time.......

Full on sarcastic for sure
But watch the pricks spin it into a bumper/record crop until the hens get home to roost
And then it will get slid under the rug
Trashcan report will fudge a few , borrow a few million tons from next years production , and noone will ever know how ****ed up it really was
Nothing in this country resembling a free market in any way , shape or form

[bucket]

When statscan has 2 years to doctor the production numbers its pretty hard to take anything resembling an open market seriously....

By the end of november the production numbers for western canada should be almost chipped in stone for the year....nope we won't know 2019 production numbers until sometime in 2022....