Wow Ag More than Ever.

[SASKFARMER]

So who out there actually thinks they will break even in Canada this year.

I'm asking for a friend because I am totally confused about how anyone can make a buck at these sick prices.

Peas at $6.13 for fall. Like what did I travel back to the last time a Trudeau was in Gov. Youll need what 70 to actually pay for shit.

Wheat at one place had a 5 in the number so with all the acres coming on stream in Canada will that be like the good old days. $4.78 for #1 high. You need 80 to give you a good return.

Ah, hell Canola has an 8 to 9 and Trudeau's Cash Advance won't help jack shit. So do Canola farmers need a yield of 55 to make money.

Oats if it goes to 1.75 what 200 bus are needed.

Barley is the same if it drops will you need a 100 just to break even.

I can't figure what is going on but the equipment is still 650000 for big equipment new. Hell, when harrows are almost 200000 something, is wrong.

Fert this year is the most expensive in years.

The seed is up all over the place.

So with Trudeau's plan for Cash advance who benefits.

It sure isn't the farmer with huge piles of debt and adds some more.

Its all designed to keep feeding the Pigs the dealerships the Chem and Fert Companies. We have to protect the parasites.

It's a stupid plan the market would have worked but no let's give farmers more debt.

Thank a Trudeau Slap every Liberal voter.

Now how is adding more land at 80 an acre and spend spend going to work to get out of this mess?

Who sees the big problem coming.

[furrowtickler]

The issue has been here for a few years, but this will be a defining year in crop production you may be correct.

[farmaholic]

Here you go.....

[jazz]

We are about to see if the high rent, high input no equity model really holds water. I know that some of these guys have been flying all over hoping to squeeze $50 an acre off a large rented land base. That little margin is gone in a couple crops now.

[SASKFARMER]

Oh but their accountants tell them they are in the top 5% in the area now instead of 1%.

When your farm is 30000 acres and all you own with a massive mortgage on 3000 acres and have men machinery and all the toys. Someone show me how this model works. Must be the new math because this guy sees red for the year.

So is it Ag stab and Private insurance whoever gets huge checks from these two programs explain.

Just asking for a friend because all I know I would make more money seeding nothing this year and just fly to Florida Friday and come back to spray one app if May June and July.

Actually, it sounds better each day to just head home and forget about farming this year.

[Bowerpower]

Margins will be very tight. And there’s a few of us younger guys that are hoping for a correction..... have a decent sized land base but doesn’t make any sense to expand when land prices are 5000 plus here.

[grassfarmer]

....It's a stupid plan the market would have worked but no let's give farmers more debt.....

If you believe the market would work what's the problem with this program? It gives the option to those who want to borrow interest free money to cash flow the situation. What was the preferred option? allow the market to fix the problem itself or just give every farmer a $500,000 handout? That would sort the capitalists from the socialists pretty fast.

[jazz]

Some guys are recognizing the change in the wind is probably permanent in some shape. There is no more consolidation to do. It will have to be another approach and that might even involve idling land. Which with good equity positions could do. Blasphemy I suppose but I would rather run a yr of chem fallow than just prop up Nutrien for nothing.

[Hamloc]

Listening on Global this am it appears the government will announce financial supports for canola farmers today and a new round of trade missions headed by Trade diversification Minister Jim Carr to countries other than China in a hope to find new markets for Canadian canola. It appears that the government believes this dispute with China will not end any time soon.

[bigzee]

SKF if things look so bad, which I agree they aren’t great, why did you even consider more dirt this spring?? I’m just curious!!
Do you have to keep up with the Jones when you are the Jones? Not being prick but come on let’s be realistic here.
Like you said fert is the highest it’s been for years, and canola seed is out of control, so why would you want more??

[Sheepwheat]

No one is forcing farmers with guns at our heads to choose that ridiculous model, or spend so much on seeding wheat that you need 80 to survive, or expanding for no reason or paying stupid rent.

Stop blaming everyone but the farmers who are DOING THIS TO THEMSELVES!!

I can pencil nicely. But my costs are low. I choose to farm that way. I have a 2000 dollar harrow, my entire machinery fleet is like a sixth of that one piece of machinery that everyone seems to have to have to farm, and I am good with that. Most guys now have sc****rs and cats and trackhoes to make more acres that are worth more than my basic farming fleet combined. Their choice,not governments or anyone else’s.

What makes me sick is this expectation that farmers are somehow owed a millionaire living no matter how stupidly they spend when times get a bit tough. We aren’t owed a living when we overspend, when we base our lives on greed and dollars, and forever 12 dollar canola. Is this really rocket science?

I do not feel bad for anyone who can’t deal with 9 dollar canola and 5 dollar wheat.

I am asking for a friend: since when are farmers guaranteed a life of luxury? Since when are commodity prices set in stone, and 9 dollar canola the end of the world? Since when do we not take responsibility for our own insane choices?

Crybabies! Whiners! Pathetic is what this is.

[jazz]

So the govt has this sort of right. Bridge guys over and then start chasing new markets. We cant be reliant on any single country in this business especially china. Canada always had dozens of customers for its products.

[Hopalong]

Have to agree with Sheepwheat.
After a number of profitable years grain farming, we are overdue for correction.
Better to keep our own operations in order than call on others to cut back.
See same response among some U.S. farmers to declining profitability.
Calls for others to reduce production.

[Partners]

Growing more will only amplify problem.
Are we like the auto sector and worked ourselves out of a job?
Nobody wants or needs our grain..
Maybe this cold shit weather..drought..is a blessing in descise.

[hobbyfrmr]

Oh but their accountants tell them they are in the top 5% in the area now instead of 1%.

When your farm is 30000 acres and all you own with a massive mortgage on 3000 acres and have men machinery and all the toys. Someone show me how this model works. Must be the new math because this guy sees red for the year.

So is it Ag stab and Private insurance whoever gets huge checks from these two programs explain.

Just asking for a friend because all I know I would make more money seeding nothing this year and just fly to Florida Friday and come back to spray one app if May June and July.

Actually, it sounds better each day to just head home and forget about farming this year.

I have about 5 large farms around me and they can show you. 10-15 years very good crops, graduated to better equipment and hire a majority of good people. They are organized and productive. They bought land at market value which has increased in value at least 2.5x. If they decide to “stop” farming they will be multi millionaires in farmland and more than likely enough cash to get through a couple of decades if they are careful spending.
Not every large farmer is going to implode.