Russian Wheat Prices

**bucket** · Feb 3, 2019, 16:33

Originally posted by Klause View Post

At a 4-year high and still climbing.

Ours?...

....crickets....

There is more transparency to the Russian prices and movement than in Canada.....but they look at agricultural exports as a economic driver....not so much in Canada...we are essentially closing the doors...

And for those that want to argue my logic remember that Russia use to buy wheat....while we had a surplus....our exports haven't changed much over the years....when you compare that Russia is now exporting as much or more than we are...

**Oliver88** · Feb 3, 2019, 16:52

Iâ€™m thinking good prices for June.

Will it be futures or basis/CDN$ that send it higher?

**Klause** · Feb 3, 2019, 19:05

Russia looking at 110 million tonnes of production next year. Half is wheat and 35 mmt is export at least I'm home

If they don't have bad weather oh boy.

**bigzee** · Feb 3, 2019, 20:11

Originally posted by Oliver88 View Post

Iâ€™m thinking good prices for June.

Will it be futures or basis/CDN$ that send it higher?

If and I said â€œIFâ€ the wheat crop in western Canada and the crop in US looks good by the end of June donâ€™t look for any big jump in prices.
Also, acres are going up which wonâ€™t help.

**Oliver88** · Feb 3, 2019, 22:15

Originally posted by bigzee View Post

If and I said â€œIFâ€ the wheat crop in western Canada and the crop in US looks good by the end of June donâ€™t look for any big jump in prices.
Also, acres are going up which wonâ€™t help.

Good points about next years wheat crop has a few things working against it.

In 2017 the rally started in May already when the Kansas winter wheat reports were negative.

**farming101** · Feb 5, 2019, 21:54

Higher Russian wheat values are a fairly recent occurrence.
They may lose some tenders till new crops come off.

**HappyFarmer** · Feb 7, 2019, 10:31

Originally posted by farming101 View Post

Higher Russian wheat values are a fairly recent occurrence.
They may lose some tenders till new crops come off.

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I think they have basically priced them out of the export market for the time being. No need for an export tax as the market has done it job.

Currently SRW on a FOB basis is now the cheapest wheat the world (freight is still pricing them out of some markets).

My guess old crop wheat will have some good cash prices on the prairies March forward. Our exports are up 18 % year over year with no clear sign of them slowing down anytime soon.

7.50 wheat will likely be here before we know it.

Russian Wheat Prices