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    next year

    What are guys thinking for next year...I have a couple small targets in for wheat next year ....testing it...If they hit...might increase the acres of wheat and shitcan the durum altogether ...

    Flax performed well and with the later harvest and weather yields will be off slightly lending some support for next year as well....

    Canola ...I just can't wrap my head around those seed costs....

    Fertilizer...everyone is doing their part to keep the price up by creating demand and storing it on farm...

    Fuel is insane ...I really can't think of ways of reducing my fuel any further ....maybe a Lexion combine but the cost is ....oh did I mention machinery costs????

    Peas and lentils ...just a ****ed market ...the protein cluster**** is years away and fully government funded...

    Grain is backing up keeping a lid on prices ....

    But you might see this as negative ...there is positives in farming ...as in... I am willing to do it again next year.


    the dumb****led farmer.....tm...

    #2
    Definition of INSANITY....doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

    And I am insane because we will be doing more of the same....with some slight variances.

    How many options to we really have... grow the macro acre crops and put up with them because everyone can't grow the micro acre crops without complete market destruction of them.

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      #3
      Originally posted by farmaholic View Post
      Definition of INSANITY....doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

      And I am insane because we will be doing more of the same....with some slight variances.

      How many options to we really have... grow the macro acre crops and put up with them because everyone can't grow the micro acre crops without complete market destruction of them.

      Another reason I like soybeans ....it's a small crop in Canada and unlike lentils or peas doubling the acres won't destroy the price....

      Good points farmaholic

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        #4
        Buying and storing fertilizer ahead of time... I hardly think it is creating artificial demand...they well know the amount of product that is needed and logistically there is no way it can all be either manufactered or moved in the time frame it is used. Do I agree with taking it in July...no. Do I agree that it should be THAT much cheaper in July than late fall, winter or spring...no. Ok maybe a bit of a break for storage risk and giving up your money months in advance.

        Pricing out to spring is a cluster**** because everyone is waiting to see what the carbon tax is going to do to it's cost. Thanks Libs.

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          #5
          A strategy on durum I have been thinking about for next year is pricing a 5cwad at 5.50 if it's available. ...puts in a bottom. ..grow a 1cwad and capture the spread which is locally 2 bucks....

          It reduces my inputs and if the weather gods shine to produce a 1cwad...if not the bottom price if 5.50 I can live with...

          Really ****ed up by not taking the 6.25 fuzz durum in august....no stress if weather hits....

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            #6
            Originally posted by farmaholic View Post
            Buying and storing fertilizer ahead of time... I hardly think it is creating artificial demand...they well know the amount of product that is needed and logistically there is no way it can all be either manufactered or moved in the time frame it is used. Do I agree with taking it in July...no. Do I agree that it should be THAT much cheaper in July than late fall, winter or spring...no. Ok maybe a bit of a break for storage risk and giving up your money months in advance.

            Pricing out to spring is a cluster**** because everyone is waiting to see what the carbon tax is going to do to it's cost. Thanks Libs.

            Storage and handling fertilizer twice on farm comes with a considerable cost....storage and the wear on the auger....has to be lower ....no auger or belt is cheap ...

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              #7
              Oh ...and good morning farmaholic.

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                #8
                It is the most insane business model in the world. Risk Millions for pennies. Everyone connected to the industry takes a huge share and leaves the primary producer with pennies.

                Now the fat big industry that lives off of us cant sees that the new frontier is Russia and Ukraine and South America and think in their small brains that don't worry fat cat Canada can still compete. You can't compete with countries that use our new tech and pay half price for seed chem and equipment. Then have countries like China build rail ports etc to get the product out. Canada we are running on same shit we had at the time of the last spike.

                Will do it again with a little less fert. and chem and cut back seeding rate on Canola. Crops will be Canola half peas none and wheat and barley.

                I see Canada losing its place real fast and our Elected officials and Board members that represent farmers can't see the forest for the trees.

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                  #9
                  Are you the only two guys out of bed this morning? I need to get coffee before I join the the conversation. Lol

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by bigzee View Post
                    Are you the only two guys out of bed this morning? I need to get coffee before I join the the conversation. Lol
                    Two coffees in already...

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by bigzee View Post
                      Are you the only two guys out of bed this morning? I need to get coffee before I join the the conversation. Lol
                      I sleep with my eyes open...

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                        #12
                        SF3 doesn't need sleep...he runs on adrenaline and an agenda to finish harvest. Then he kinda slows down farming to catch up on a bit of living he missed out on....I don't think I could keep up!

                        Work hard and play hard.

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                          #13
                          I will finish the 18 harvest this aft noon. Then it’s time for a few pops, or spiced rums or several with the crew and a big supper. On the combine there is lots of thinking time. Next year always enters my mind, to plan next year now is a bit premature. Plans now always get changed. As soon as a commodity rallys everyone flocks to it.
                          I know as of right now my wheat acres are going up, not because of big spread between it and durum, it’s simply comes down to net return.
                          Brandon is a powerful variety and durum can’t keep up with it. I’m looking at the net return, not dollars/bu.
                          More to follow need more coffee.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            How will carbon tax drive up price of fertilizer??
                            It appears lots of NH3 going on this fall....if Trudeau gets the boot next year the tax will be axed.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Lots of NH3 going down..local supplier says double the acres from last yr already applied.
                              Phos going up 76 dollars a tonne next shipment coming in..oye..
                              All our dry N in the ground and picking up our phos that was booked in Aug..
                              Canola seed prices cheaper than last yr..
                              Check out the coop as they only have double down prices on dekalb if taking 2 varieties..save more than 50 bucks a bag..

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