Canola and Wheat...

[farmaholic]

Will regular commodity canola break $12/by and when? Will we have to wait til the end of the crop year as usual?

How far over $7 will spring wheat rise? If everyone held out a bit it might go higher sooner.

[bucket]

Believe it or not....was told the latest strategy is to lower the price to make guys hold on to canola for a while because the latest results show lower production....and last years production doesn't seem to be showing up either....they will need canola later so by getting guys to bin it for a while they can get a better handle on whats out there and force the farmer's hand ...they know it has to move eventually...and no grain marketing rep is that stupid not to see the bins shining from afar....


For wheat there is no big upswing coming ...maybe you haven't heard of the 12 billion dollar payment or 15.5 billion cdn.....it affects canola as well from the price swings of soybeans...


The only holding on will be to the US mailboxes while they do their so called open market thing.

Too bad our farm groups didn't understand the open market includes massive adhoc subsidies...

[Partners]

Viterra at 7 bucks for wht delivered now.
Should indicate a price rise until the next report by someone..

[furrowtickler]

Viterra at 7 bucks for wht delivered now.
Should indicate a price rise until the next report by someone..

Just a wild guess but the spread in grades widening on wheat ?

[bucket]

Does anyone ever question why the grade spreads can't be locked in when you sign a contract so if shit hits the fan you at least know with some certainty what the consequences are.?


it seems the rules that Yerry left for farmers in 2012 are favoured to the buyers not the sellers...

Just who is the Ag minister past or present suppose to represent??????

[beaverdam]

Russia says no export controls on wheat at this time, wheat down $0.25/bus this morning.

[jazz]

Russia says no export controls on wheat at this time, wheat down $0.25/bus this morning.

Wheat prices will never ever change. They have been locked in this range for years. Best you cna hope for is an extra 50c if you hold it for 9 months.

And dont expect any premium anymore for top grade protein. Doesnt exist anymore. Ethanol bound price is about $1 less than top human consumption. This market is ruined.

[farmaholic]

Believe it or not....was told the latest strategy is to lower the price to make guys hold on to canola for a while because the latest results show lower production....and last years production doesn't seem to be showing up either....they will need canola later so by getting guys to bin it for a while they can get a better handle on whats out there and force the farmer's hand ...they know it has to move eventually...and no grain marketing rep is that stupid not to see the bins shining from afar....

Then $12+ should come sooner than later.

Once all the low hanging fruit on a smaller crop is picked it will cost more to loosen the grip on the tightly held crop.

Wheat...time will tell. But early pricing opportunities offered about seven bucks. With the bit of info I read here and there about world production...I think we can expect some stronger pricing going forward.

Any of the market analysts care to offer an opinion.

[jazz]

Then $12+ should come sooner than later.

You can just about get $12 if you long on the futures.

I dont know if these farmlead guys are accurate but bullish on https://farmlead.com/blog/insights/august-2018-durum-prices-recap-graincents/ durum prices ;

[farming101]

One thing to remember about storage: some day you will want to put something else in that bin, and

If you are the last one with some type of commodity to market you have probably missed the boat, literally

Having said that for us it looks like we will not be delivering a whole lot before December

[blackpowder]

There was pricing opportunities early on at those levels or above.
Understand full well thats not an answer to anything.

[farmaholic]

I think most on this website know my sentiment about selling grain I don't have or know what it will be. Although I realize there are lost "opportunities" in that line of thinking.

101, we usually sell before the last guy holding does. Sometimes it pays sometimes it doesn't.

Sometimes cash flow dictates movement...not price. But then again, maybe that cash flow should have been planned for as best as possible under the current marketing pricing and movement structure.

[Guest]

Viterra at 7 bucks for wht delivered now.
Should indicate a price rise until the next report by someone..

Really , only $6.66 at tisdale ?

[farmaholic]

Really , only $6.66 at tisdale ?

To me its what they need, when they need it, and where they need it. Read the signals.

But one thing I really never want to do is give up the grain on a basis contract and play the futures. That's like me telling the dealership what I'm going to pay for the combine after the papers are signed with a down payment AND the combine is delivered to my farm....I don't think so!

Does any other business do business that way?

[farming101]

Some of the best prices seen on low protein HRS since the price spike in summer of 2017. $1.30 higher than last Sept for #1 11.5.
High protein is plentiful this year apparently. Last fall 14.5 was going for over $2 more than 11.5. This year 90 cents??
I guess sell the low-pro first if I guy has any