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I said it when the rains didn't come and now some are finally agreeing.

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    I said it when the rains didn't come and now some are finally agreeing.

    Canola Production Seen at or Below Last Year


    Sizzling heat and dryness this growing season may keep 2018 Canadian canola production at or well below the year-earlier level, according to a Syngenta website story.
    Industry estimates ahead of Friday’s Statistics Canada crop production report – the first for the 2018 growing season – put this year’s canola crop at anywhere between 18.1 million and 21.3 million tonnes, versus the 2017 crop of 21.31 million.
    Although last year’s growing season was dry as well, crops had an ample supply of subsoil moisture to help pull them through. This time around, much of that subsoil moisture was depleted and crops also experienced bouts of searing temperatures to go along with the lack of rain in many areas.
    “I don’t think people appreciate how much the crop has been hit,” Bill Craddock, a trader who also farms near Winnipeg, said of the canola crop.
    “The chances of the (canola production) number being over 22 (million tonnes) now are not very good,” added Bruce Burnett of MarketsFarm, a part of Glacier Farm Media

    My guess is the number will come in at 18.7.

    But what do I know I'm just a stupid farmer who drives around the west and actually stops and looks at pods and canola crops and understands math and the weather.

    Maybe we should bring back history for weather events and math in schools again.

    Click image for larger version

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    Oh, I did get my first big yield BS weigh wagon from a dryer area that's the last 15 average was really high, really high they lucked out.
    The guy showed his swaths then did his special test plots and did weigh it, and it was 50.7 and 51.2

    I texted him your swaths didn't look that big on the whole section and he got back the field averaged 41. Low areas did fine higher had basically not much.

    So why post the BULLSHIT weigh wagon yield in the sweet spot is my comment.

    I have some flat flood bottom that we doubled up on that should beat the 100 bus fool up north.

    But when you're in the business of selling seed, or snake oil you cant be seen as in lowest yield is the law.

    AGAIN MY NUMBER IS 18.7 MMT

    #2
    so what ? canola is in a free fall anyways ?

    Comment


      #3
      I think the $1.85 USA subsidy on soybeans is helping the nose dive because our price is based on soy

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by caseih View Post
        so what ? canola is in a free fall anyways ?
        Patience GrassHopper

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by farmaholic View Post
          Patience GrassHopper
          Agree , as the crop reports happen now as S/F pointed out the truth most of us have have saying for almost 2 months will shake out , but “harvest” pressure 🙄 will keep prices down as long as they can ... for now

          Comment


            #6
            Yea harvest pressure from viagra input has to do all the streaming for the farmers.

            Then those guys realize they are short.

            And the buy buy buy prices are going up bull shit

            Comment


              #7
              It's got to be close to testing support. 101?

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by farmaholic View Post
                It's got to be close to testing support. 101?
                Yes, although patience is definitely the word to use. Don't see anything great for the next 2+ weeks

                Watch these price marks in ZWZ for direction: Closes over 5.49 positive. Closes under yesterday's low of 518.5 obviously negative. There's the range.

                Russia export forecasts for 2018-19 may start to percolate higher
                EU poor crop will partly be dealt with by lowering domestic consumption. Go on a diet-supply problem solved

                Sask avg wheat #1 13.5 prices:
                2 year trend 247
                1 year trend 240
                6 mo trend 240

                Comment


                  #9
                  Some farmers are their own worst enemy. Have to out yield the neighbor.total bullshit yields.
                  In Humboldt area with 4 inches of rain all yr..claims of 40 plus canola??
                  Neighbor with 80 plus BLY. Less than to bags on a half section?
                  Plus it's all dry to..with dryer running 24/7..idiots.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Stand for 50-60 here, hutts done some had one half 40, other fields 32-35. They can’t believe and are disappointed how low the yields are.
                    No sub soil and heat like never seen before and no rain since July 9 pretty much shows what to expect.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by bigzee View Post
                      Stand for 50-60 here, hutts done some had one half 40, other fields 32-35. They can’t believe and are disappointed how low the yields are.
                      No sub soil and heat like never seen before and no rain since July 9 pretty much shows what to expect.
                      Agree Big Zee , but that’s also what happens when you fertilize the shit out of a crop all up front then the rains don’t come .... been there

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by furrowtickler View Post
                        Agree Big Zee , but that’s also what happens when you fertilize the shit out of a crop all up front then the rains don’t come .... been there
                        Heard some 30 bushel barley and reel on the knife for a full quarter on canola. Yeah this'll be a bin buster

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by bigzee View Post
                          Stand for 50-60 here, hutts done some had one half 40, other fields 32-35. They can’t believe and are disappointed how low the yields are.
                          No sub soil and heat like never seen before and no rain since July 9 pretty much shows what to expect.
                          And that is in Hutt bushels as well which are about 20% smaller than regular ones.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by ajl View Post
                            And that is in Hutt bushels as well which are about 20% smaller than regular ones.
                            When they tell me a yield I usually cut in half and add 1 or 2.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by farming101 View Post
                              Yes, although patience is definitely the word to use. Don't see anything great for the next 2+ weeks

                              Watch these price marks in ZWZ for direction: Closes over 5.49 positive. Closes under yesterday's low of 518.5 obviously negative. There's the range.

                              Russia export forecasts for 2018-19 may start to percolate higher
                              EU poor crop will partly be dealt with by lowering domestic consumption. Go on a diet-supply problem solved

                              Sask avg wheat #1 13.5 prices:
                              2 year trend 247
                              1 year trend 240
                              6 mo trend 240
                              Canola too 101.1?

                              Comment

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