Canola

[Agvocate]

So when the basis is half, or less than half, of what it is now GrainCos or Railways are handling it for nothing? I don't think so....

No, that's not what i said at all. I said IF everything else remained unchanged that is how much basis would widen annually to cover the cost of freight to port. Of course they will still be handling it for a profit, and I realize the other variables change daily, just trying to highlight how much per year an increase we are paying to CP and CN to move grain to port.

[farmaholic]

Ok thank you Agvocate

[Oliver88]

Canola prices have been creeping up and rebounding over the last month.
Hopefully trend will continue.

Lower canola yields than 2017 we here on Agriville.
Weak CDN $
Demand?

[Agvocate]

Weak close today. Breaking through the support line. With the soybean S&D as sloppy as it has been in a long time and the yields south of the border, have to think this will open up canola to the downside in the near term.

[errolanderson]

U.S. / China meeting this week could set the stage for soybean price direction heading into Sept. Trump appears almost conceding that nothing of consequence will come out of these discussions.

Markets will tell us all soon . . . .

[bigzee]

Little off topic, but if China and the USA can somehow settle their differences watch how fast the pea price will fall.

[errolanderson]

Little off topic, but if China and the USA can somehow settle their differences watch how fast the pea price will fall.

The flip side of this is; no China/U.S. kiss and make-up and Cdn pea bids could have some wheels by late fall.

Trump now threatening more China tariffs. This will cut China's GDP, but it will also cut the U.S. GDP.

The world economy is far bigger than that of the U.S. Trade patterns will adjust. And China has the ability to extend this trade war far longer than the U.S. ever expected (IMO).

[SASKFARMER3]

I'm on the side that thinks the markets will be in for one **** of a surprise from Canada.

No one other than farmers is saying the 2018 crop is a shit show.

But the experts still don't want to admit what the final yields will be like.

Comments now like its an Average crop.

Ah is that an average before the rain years or an average of the 80s crops or are crops like we use to get.

40 hrs
38 peas
33 canola
65 barley
100 oats
ETC ETC ETC.

You can pound all the products they have for sale and guess what mother nature still deals the cards.

[beaverdam]

In 49 years of growing canola on this farm, I've never seen a stand so variable in maturity. Dead ripe to blooming, and the variability is not necessarily from low land to high ground, it's on the flat. The scary part is the dead ripe stuff doesn't even have nice seed like most years, like half seeds. Usually those plants have the biggest plump seeds of all. Makes me wonder if the rest of the plants, that are at the true swathing stage, will even make anything. Love swathing canola in +30'C weather.

[bigzee]

I'm on the side that thinks the markets will be in for one **** of a surprise from Canada.

No one other than farmers is saying the 2018 crop is a shit show.

But the experts still don't want to admit what the final yields will be like.

Comments now like its an Average crop.

Ah is that an average before the rain years or an average of the 80s crops or are crops like we use to get.

40 hrs
38 peas
33 canola
65 barley
100 oats
ETC ETC ETC.

You can pound all the products they have for sale and guess what mother nature still deals the cards.

This will likely be an average crop SK3. Again the problem is about demand and most important now is carryover from 17 crop and possibly still some from 16. Every kernel produced this year adds to an already lofty situation. Prices do suck but if you sold every kernel on your farm, which I did don’t feel like you are part of the problem that has occurred. There was opportunity to move everything with “decent” return, but now things are in the toilet and the all this product will be hard to “flush” through the system. Prices may creep higher if someone is short but be expected to take advantages of those little situations.
I’m not going to get greedy when the chances are slim prices will get back to where they should be.

[bucket]

This will likely be an average crop SK3. Again the problem is about demand and most important now is carryover from 17 crop and possibly still some from 16. Every kernel produced this year adds to an already lofty situation. Prices do suck but if you sold every kernel on your farm, which I did don’t feel like you are part of the problem that has occurred. There was opportunity to move everything with “decent” return, but now things are in the toilet and the all this product will be hard to “flush” through the system. Prices may creep higher if someone is short but be expected to take advantages of those little situations.
I’m not going to get greedy when the chances are slim prices will get back to where they should be.

Have you read the supply demand picture of the world wheat and grains market....excluding China we are close to what happened in 07/08....

Canada's production won't make up for reduced yields around the world and neither will Australia....

Shortage of barley predicted for Canada's feedlots...Western producer.

Shortage of hay resulting in more grain being fed....IMHO

I am selling incrementally ...a load here or there to keep from buying bins....and its been drive thru at the elevator...I like that.

[SASKFARMER3]

When you can get 12 for canola a couple months back you sell.

Over 7 for hrs is good money

All I had left at end of July was seed for 2019.


In our area I would say carry out was piss all.

[bucket]

SF3...

Do you find those "paint and decal" addictions costing more bushels?????

I know my "parts" addiction for my used equipment is ****ing retarded....

[bigzee]

When you can get 12 for canola a couple months back you sell.

Over 7 for hrs is good money

All I had left at end of July was seed for 2019.


In our area I would say carry out was piss all.

I sold my last 15k canola for $12, that was the highest price I could have got for the year.
I will agree with you with the world wheat numbers. I’m referring to lentils, peas, and durum. These three crops have huge carry in numbers. You don’t grow lentils or durum so you likely don’t follow as much like wheat and canola.

[bucket]

Big zee

Seeing some positive in the lentil market, and you guys can all thank me for selling my peas at the harvest lows of 6 bucks ...

It won't take a year to start a good climb and see decent returns for 2019 crop...

Its dry,,,and normal rainfall will produce average crops....the world needs more than average crops ..look at the demand build in the last 5 years...bumper crops with these carryovers....average won't cut it because it means a further reduction in carryover...

Its simple math...I am not too bulled up yet but i see positives....it doesn't mean any machinery upgrades just a little less stress and hope for the apprentice.