Whopper of a crop coming FAST

[Oliver88]

Reports are that peas and lentils won't move until later which means the railways will have guaranteed excuses to do SFA.

Theoretically wheat, canola, barley should be moving full steam ahead than once harvest starts than.

Unfortunately you are likely correct and some under performing by railways will take place due to various weird reasons.

[hobbyfrmr]

What's my problem? Has it crossed your mind that basis is set off these "reports"? Remember winter of 13/14 after farmers, like a bunch of drunk teenage girls on Girls Gone Wild flashing their tits, were posting yield monitor pics of 70-80 bushel wheat, were rewarded with negative $3 Or $4 basis levels? Did Grain World approach FL or was it reverse? Why is this information released? To sell a service. If your familiar with Informa, previously known as Sparks, their business model is working for the end user. Predominately livestock and smaller coop grain elevators. Now every futures contract needs a buyer and a seller, so be it, that's what makes markets. Don't be so naive to think there isn't bigger money behind a service then what's in the best interest of the producer. There are no examples of genuinely looking out for the little guy. I find it odd that after a 5-6 year decline in futures and producers margins that now FL teams up with a heavy weight like GW. Tough sledding selling a service? It's usually the consultants that get cut first. Look at Cargill's Crop Sense program, it doesn't stand on its own legs but C wants access to the fields so they know what's coming so they have no surprises. Yes there's sat shots and all sorts of cool shit they can use but there's no correlation, YET, for that into yield. They need boots on the ground so they have a weekly report sent back to Minneapolis. Cargill had the world's 3rd largest intelligence agency in the 70's only CIA and KGB were larger. WHY?.... there's good individuals that'll help producers but there's no business model for it, it's a 1 way street. Quit giving away data boys.

“What's my problem? Has it crossed your mind that basis is set off these "reports"? Remember winter of 13/14 after farmers, like a bunch of drunk teenage girls on Girls Gone Wild flashing their tits, were posting yield monitor pics of 70-80 bushel wheat, were rewarded with negative $3 Or $4 basis.”

LOL!! Truth!

[FarmJunkie]

No bin buster guaranteed. Heard a 40 avg instead of 41 like last year. If last year was only 41 then this year is more like a 35-36 at best. I ain’t seen any 60 plus and more like 45-50 lots of 35-40 and definitely lots of 30. Hartley can’t afford more than 11 bucks so gotta prop up the average.

[sawfly1]

does any of it matter,
we have been played before , lock the bin.
I do not think sask. gov. is trying to move the market.
and the grain co. do not need an excuse to screw us.
they can make something up.
always have .

no sense getting in a panic to sell and move it.
the RR will not move it fast enough anyway.

after the transportation messes we have had ,
we are all trained, that if you want fall movement without giving away your first born.
you have to contract 6-10 months ahead.

looks hot and dry in a lot of places around the globe.

the world price will react .
our problem is when that happens .
we can not access it .

all it would take to get transparency in our system ,
would be the stroke of a pen.
but neither conservative or liberal will do it ,
because they get their orders from the grain co.s
and the Weston's too. apparently .

the rail roads mess , the new transportation bill will not fix nothing.
the grain co.s have no incentive to make the system work.
they make way more when it is bottlenecked.

the hole to the coast is only so big .
if you want your grain thru it, it will cost you , big basis

there are probably enough grain co.s around now to have a competitive functioning market.
but without a transportation system that can deliver .
we are screwd

[furrowtickler]

Very good post sawfly

Maybe it’s time for anouther vegetative index map ..... and compare that with one from two weeks ago .

And thx very much to Klause and others for supplying those last time .

[furrowtickler]

A couple moisture maps from the past 90 days .....



Difference from 2017 ..... 75% less sub soil moisture in western Canada
The crops ability to grow mostly off sub soil moisture surprised a lot of us last year .
There will be few surprises this year me thinks ...... but I have been wrong before .... time will tell

[bucket]

Jesus ****ing christ I am getting tired of always being in the Brown spot.....lmao...shit luck hey

[AlbertaFarmer5]

That big yellow blob in Alberta just happens to include the entire Highway 2 corridor, which just happens to be include most of the most productive ground in the province.

[SASKFARMER3]

From blue to green this year but grass will say it’s wrong he knows better.

[helmsdale]

That big yellow blob in Alberta just happens to include the entire Highway 2 corridor, which just happens to be include most of the most productive ground in the province.

ALOT of "bumpy" cereals in western alberta. Moisture deficiency definitely showing up. Lots of yellow in that neighborhood, but alot of it struggled with emergence, and is thinner and shorter than normal. It'll be a crop, but not what new genetics, new farming methods, and jammed inputs would say that it should be.