Has China run out of bullets

[macdon02]

https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=8a79ffe1bc

Peter Zeihan's take on the next steps in the trade war.

[errolanderson]

https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=8a79ffe1bc

Peter Zeihan's take on the next steps in the trade war.

Far from it . . . currency war next.

Trump is shepherding in an American recession quickly (IMO). Mind you, U.S. gov't stated last nite; Tariffs are having no impact on the American economy.

[jazz]

Far from it . . . currency war next.

US has been through 20 recessions and survived. I would like to see how china handles its first one.

If a US recession means knock china off its perch for 20 yrs without a shooting war, well worth doing. This is about WAY more than trade and tarriffs.

[Klause]

US has been through 20 recessions and survived. I would like to see how china handles its first one.

If a US recession means knock china off its perch for 20 yrs without a shooting war, well worth doing. This is about WAY more than trade and tarriffs.

Yes because it's in our best interest for our largest canola buyer's economy to tank and demand to drop

[jazz]

Yes because it's in our best interest for our largest canola buyer's economy to tank and demand to drop

Short term thinking klause. There is a struggle for the next 100 yrs being played out on the global stage. Its about more than your canola crop.

China will still buy our food, they have no choice. As will many other countries.

Canada needs to cozy up to the US now and ride along because they will win this war. We could be doing a lot more trade with an even greater economic power house. Our bread is buttered in the US, not China.

[macdon02]

Short term thinking klause. There is a struggle for the next 100 yrs being played out on the global stage. Its about more than your canola crop.

China will still buy our food, they have no choice. As will many other countries.

Canada needs to cozy up to the US now and ride along because they will win this war. We could be doing a lot more trade with an even greater economic power house. Our bread is buttered in the US, not China.

Strangely China hasn't hit cotton yet..... But this could be trumps move. Shutdown the garment factories with 25% on Chinese cotton product exports. There's a way bigger stick being the buyer then the seller of manufactured goods.... as our grain buyers know

[jazz]

Trade between china is 3:1. Trump can do a lot more damage than china could do.

They might try something next like a currency devaluation, but their stock market will drop and financing become more expensive. They might try selling US treasuries, but the US dollar is getting stronger so someone will buy that debt.

Trump can sanction or tax any US company operating there, he can shut out china from the global financial system. He can twist oil as a weapon. US has a lot more tools.

[biglentil]

Far from it . . . currency war next.

Trump is shepherding in an American recession quickly (IMO). Mind you, U.S. gov't stated last nite; Tariffs are having no impact on the American economy.

Trade war, currency war, shooting war

[macdon02]

Trade war, currency war, shooting war

Why would invade a billion people that have no oil, no resources and are totally import export dependant? And then be financially responsible for them? There has to be a goal in war. Syria and Iraq were over oil. Korea Vietnam was over McCarthyism/ communism. That's dead. China will cave rather then suffer an uprising.

[errolanderson]

China digging in and swinging toward alternatives to cut U.S. soy dependency . . . . If trade war extended, Trump's protectionism now at-risk of irreversible financial damage to the American Midwest. Soybean S and D's will be a mess with more corn planted next year for disastrous soy returns? Corn trouble too. There is no 'winning' strategy here (IMO) . . . .

This may be a boon for western Canada. China may possibly look toward more meat imports to replace soymeal fed hogs. Also, peas may be on the hog menu.