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Will western Canadian crop size/conditions matter in this years market?

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  • AlbertaFarmer5
    Senior Member
    • Oct 2010
    • 12606

    Will western Canadian crop size/conditions matter in this years market?

    I don't really have a handle on what crops are like across western Canada this summer, sounds like many areas are getting just in time rains, few areas are flooded out, and a big chunk is dry but not quite desperate enough to make headlines, is that fair?

    But will it matter? Are we going to be drug down along with CBOT prices regardless of what we produce? I still think that we have opportunities to fill the void left by US trade policies and retaliations, but at what price level?

    At the middle of July, not much room left for any weather rallies, except maybe an early August frost or blizzard, probably not something one should bet the farm on...

    Are we likely to be flooded with cheaper US grain, equalizing the price difference if our export markets hold up?
  • Hopalong
    Senior Member
    • Apr 2013
    • 1244

    #2
    Fairly steep declines in grain price futures today as fears increase over trade war.
    Expect prices to arbitrage or even out with US ones.
    Do not see how Trump can maintain support from moderate Republicans in farm states so trade war fears are overdone.

    Comment

    • SASKFARMER3
      Senior Member
      • Feb 2006
      • 14485

      #3
      China is smart drop soy beans and buy Canadian Canola knowing full well canola is priced off or in connection with beans.

      Slam cheap supply from stupid Canadians it’s a win win for China.

      Ottawa not a peep except support a carbon tax that will eventually kill your operation.

      Subsidies hahahahahah

      Comment

      • Oliver88
        Senior Member
        • Dec 2012
        • 4688

        #4
        Grain buyers are expecting a huge canola crop.
        Prices have slid $1/bushel roughly in last 4 months for new crop and old crop.

        Comment

        • furrowtickler
          Senior Member
          • Dec 2004
          • 22269

          #5
          Originally posted by Oliver88 View Post
          Grain buyers are expecting a huge canola crop.
          Prices have slid $1/bushel roughly in last 4 months for new crop and old crop.
          Would love to see vegetative index maps of western Canada right now . Would tell the story right or wrong

          Comment

          • Klause
            Senior Member
            • Sep 2010
            • 3644

            #6
            Originally posted by furrowtickler View Post
            Would love to see vegetative index maps of western Canada right now . Would tell the story right or wrong
            Ask and you shall receive

            Click image for larger version

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            Comment

            • Klause
              Senior Member
              • Sep 2010
              • 3644

              #7
              Drought Conditions, July 1



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              • farming101
                Senior Member
                • Mar 2011
                • 3956

                #8
                Thanks Klause..

                Here is a side by side enhanced view of the northeast. 2017/2018
                These are not NDVI maps.

                In my view the northeast is showing the greatest improvement on the prairies for crop stage and growth over last year

                Click image for larger version

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                • Klause
                  Senior Member
                  • Sep 2010
                  • 3644

                  #9
                  Some more data.

                  Click image for larger version

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                  • AlbertaFarmer5
                    Senior Member
                    • Oct 2010
                    • 12606

                    #10
                    Where are you finding the maps Klause?

                    Comment

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