Collapse of Soybeans

[errolanderson]

U.S. June 15th tariff D-day have bean bulls running for the exit door. Soybeans appear now in-the-process technically of a $1.25/bu washout. China has been spooky quiet. Canola caught in the crossfire.

Trump tariffs now impacting the heartland of Trump support . . . the American Midwest.

[ajl]

Likely this is just routine switching from old to new crop as most needs are booked until new crop. The rate rise also will give some downward pressure to commodities as well. China will be back for more US beans if they have any US cash around and that is a big if. Wheat was also off today significantly. Must have found some higher yielding areas on the harvest run.

[Oliver88]

The crossfire taking Canola down adds to the slow gradual downward spot price for Canola.

It wasn't long ago farmaholic was discussing "settling" for $12 Canola......now it's $11.25- $11.50.

[Guest]

pioneer in crooked river was still paying $12 a week ago . finished us off

[farmaholic]

O88, there is no more canola available now than when I settled for $12 a short while ago. Silly market.

[bucket]

If they were buying at 12 ...then at 11.25 it has to be a great deal...

[errolanderson]

If Trump follows through on tariff threats tomorrow, watch for an immediate, sharp response from China.

Beans are in trouble, unfortunately canola will be dragged under if this scenario unfolds.

As Alan Greenspan stated yesterday, we are now on-the-cusp of a major global trade war.

[errolanderson]

For growers needing fall price protection, November canola $510 puts may trade around $16/MT and starts $6/MT in-the-money.

[Agvocate]

For growers needing fall price protection, November canola $510 puts may trade around $16/MT and starts $6/MT in-the-money.

$500 puts were trading at $10.00 yesterday. Fairly cheap vol, right around 10%

[errolanderson]

Perdue University now estimating that should China retaliate with a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybean imports, China purchases of American beans may plummet 65 percent in the new crop year. Purchases would shift toward much cheaper South American product.

Mind you, Pres Trump did say trade wars are easy to win . . . .