Canola Futures

[Oliver88]

Road bans = big bucks for canola.

$12.50 + by June I’m thinking.

[jdepape]

In my humble opinion, canola price action is a function of graincos/commercials not wanting to be short the nearby. And it all has to do with poor rail service.
There's a little know feature of the canola futures contract that is rearing its ugly little head - again.
When a long stands for delivery and then calls for the canola to be shipped, the short (the elevator that delivered against futures in their own elevator) must supply the canola as called for, same as any other futures contract. However, because of the way railcars are allocated, the elevator must also provide railcars for the canola.
Under normal circumstances, that's not an issue. But, when railcars are in high demand as they are now, shippers really don't want to give them up, especially to the competition.
Over 50,000 tonnes of canola were delivered against futures in the March and were called for shipment, which I'm guessing really hurt.
No grainco wants to be on the wrong side of that again.
Here's a chart of the May/July spread - this is what short-covering in the front end looks like.

[sumdumguy]

Pays for them bins.

[jdepape]

Pays for them bins.

Not sure I follow....

[Guest]

Not sure I follow....

he means he will pay for the new bins he bought because he kept it for $12 , instead of listening to all the experts saying what a HUGE canola crop it was ,even without rain on half the prairies . and telling him to sell , sell , sell . too bad we can never know how small the canola crop really was . not for us low life's to know . it just gets a little old when you hear the excuses why it goes up in the spring 9 years outta 10 . and somehow they work on us so much through the winter that we buy into it , unf$&King believable , actually. not directing this at you in any way , just too bad someone wouldn't really try to help farmers with the truth . farmaholic you should start a marketing newsletter . you nailed it two years in a row ,lol

[biglentil]

he means he will pay for the new bins he bought because he kept it for $12 , instead of listening to all the experts saying what a HUGE canola crop it was ,even without rain on half the prairies . and telling him to sell , sell , sell . too bad we can never know how small the canola crop really was . not for us low life's to know . it just gets a little old when you hear the excuses why it goes up in the spring 9 years outta 10 . and somehow they work on us so much through the winter that we buy into it , unf$&King believable , actually. not directing this at you in any way , just too bad someone wouldn't really try to help farmers with the truth . farmaholic you should start a marketing newsletter . you nailed it two years in a row ,lol

Im think Durum is next! Ditches are dry, creeks are hardly running, and dugout only half full. Plus last years crop exaggerated.

[sumdumguy]

he means he will pay for the new bins he bought because he kept it for $12 , instead of listening to all the experts saying what a HUGE canola crop it was ,even without rain on half the prairies . and telling him to sell , sell , sell . too bad we can never know how small the canola crop really was . not for us low life's to know . it just gets a little old when you hear the excuses why it goes up in the spring 9 years outta 10 . and somehow they work on us so much through the winter that we buy into it , unf$&King believable , actually. not directing this at you in any way , just too bad someone wouldn't really try to help farmers with the truth . farmaholic you should start a marketing newsletter . you nailed it two years in a row ,lol

Wait, the shise hasn’t hit the fan yet. If it stays dry until Mid - June, I hope there’s a lot of shorts hanging on the line.

[farmaholic]

caseih, I will be the first to admit I got lucky. But I am learning afew things as I go. Fundamentals(of supply and demand) should play the biggest part of overall price setting, but then you have to ride the futures and options roller coaster(the speculators playground) that gets nauseating after a while.

Another important feature is the difference between "pushing" your product onto the market or having it "pulled" into it. Learn and know the difference. Plan for cash flow to the best of your ability in the ****ed up system we're expected to operate in.

Don't even expect the same prices at competing terminals in your area, who needs what and when? I like to think every terminal within reasonable driving distance is an option for me to sell to. As much as I would like to deliver as close to home as possible, "economically", sometimes it makes sense to drive further.

Is the wheat price coming back again before harvest 2018? I have no clue, but if you have decent Px you might find a premium. Do I think canola has a wee bit of upside? Yup. $12/bu came earlier than last year. The longer into the marketing year....the stronger the hands that are holding it.....but be careful.....greed has taught me a few lessons already but I am a slow learner.....hold out for a nickel and take 50 cents less.

But why is "x" dollars everyone's magic number instead of a nickel higher than that nice round target number? Put a target in for a nickel under that nice round figure? Why should I? So mine "triggers" before AND BELOW everyone else's? Ya right, nice "buyer's" advice....grrrr


A few different circumstances at play here for us as well.....

Good luck in 2018 everyone, work safe and take care.

[Guest]

Wait, the shise hasn’t hit the fan yet. If it stays dry until Mid - June, I hope there’s a lot of shorts hanging on the line.

sorry sumdum. . I should of said I think that's what you meant . but I think we are on the same page

[sumdumguy]

You got it Case. We built a lot of bins in our farming career because our ears were plugged. Every dog has his day if he waits long enough.