I think were getting bullshitted on Big Canola Supply!

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes some areas had a great crop and some had a so so but this big supply thing that we hear over and over is Bullshit I'm starting to think over and over.

Oilseed Markets Balance Big Supply vs Big Demand
Oilseed market seasonals tend to point higher into late Nov., says Mike Jubinville of Pro Farmer Canada for FCC.
The soybean price trend for now will likely grinds along its upward price channel established from the mid-Aug. low, he says.
Nov. canola futures are threatening a test of overhead chart resistance at $500/t.
"In my opinion, sell-offs at this time are not likely to be sustained," says Jubinville. "But, sufficient supply is available which doesn’t take much rally or cash basis induced incentivizing when needed to draw farmer-owned canola into the commercial pipeline."

Sufficient supply right now. Yea genius we just finished harvest in most of the west and yes farmers have the grain and companies would like to get their hands on it.

But they keep telling us its a big big crop and they can wait then phone and say hurry act fast we have a special of 11 a bushel for end of November delivery.

Its a carrot and stick mentality.

Funny on the whole drive to Banff from Balgonie to Brooks you could count the grain bags this year with your fingers and toes and be ok that you didn't miss one.

Two nice new bin yards in area by Web and closer to Maple creek.

Funny you can tell in Alberta where the irrigation never got to the crop.

Then halfway from brooks to Calgary the bag numbers started but not like the hay day of last few years.

i talked to two owners of companies that supply farm equipment and bags and bins across western Canada. Both comments were we all got lucky this year grew a crop with good quality but no Bumpers. Grew a old style normal crop. Yes some areas real bad but over all a surprise but no bumper.

I believe demand is their but supply by August will be almost empty.

Just a observance from the road.




One thing was funny on the drive.

In our area every tom dick and harry is out with every thing from the newest to old discers trying to get land back to normal. The dry area its like its over were parked and lets put 2017 behind us.

[danny W1M]

We took up some last minute specials for $11.00 during harvest, felt it was a fair price to gain more bin space. But now that harvest is a wrap, we might trickle out a bit at $11.50 if the weather is still nice and the roads are dry, otherwise we'll be holding for $12.00 before any major sales again.

[danny W1M]

Just noticing local grainco has moved basis off JAN, nearby is $11.10 this morning.

[farmaholic]

May.... $11.37. 70 kms away from me.

[bucket]

What's bullshit is how little grain is moving to ports.....450000 tonnes a week is a ****ing joke and the boats are lining up....

Nice weather and these guys back the system up to not have to pay more.....

The collusionary tactics shared by the railways and grain cos in this country are reprehensible.....Keith creel said the other day more consolidation in the rail industry is coming because no one will build another railway....nice hey.

Sending texts to deliver an hour and half away because they won't load cars locally and rail it past the same point a far distance away should be monitored by the provincial government.


Consolidation years ago said every elevator should be at 112 car spot....why hasn't that happened and why does the government ignore facts....

[hobbyfrmr]

What's bullshit is how little grain is moving to ports.....450000 tonnes a week is a ****ing joke and the boats are lining up....

Nice weather and these guys back the system up to not have to pay more.....

The collusionary tactics shared by the railways and grain cos in this country are reprehensible.....Keith creel said the other more consolidation in the rail industry is coming because no one will build another railway....nice hey.

Sending texts to deliver an hour and half away because they won't load cars locally and rail it past the same point a far distance away should be monitored by the provincial government.


Consolidation years ago said every elevator should be at 112 car spot....why hasn't that happened and why does the government ignore facts....

I dont have answers to your questions, but I do appreciate that you monitor and relay the tonnes per week and boats lined up. That is an important part of the industry to know what is happening and why.

[bucket]

Hobby

Problem is I don't know why the industry can't move a million tonnes a week....and be more transparent. ...

Why are farmers producing 60mmt and only have the capacity to move 40 mmt at best....

And why do farmers think building storage is a gold star accomplishment. ....

Elevators make money on elevation....

Farmers elevate once into the bin and once out ....plus they should earn a ROI on storage....

That's if we were running the farm on the same business principles as the grain cos. ...
And farmers have built more storage than all the grain cos combined....

One hundred 125 tonne bins locally got sold... that's 12500 tonnes on farms year over year.....tell me where it's being built by industry....

[Agvocate]

Hobby

Problem is I don't know why the industry can't move a million tonnes a week....and be more transparent. ...

Why are farmers producing 60mmt and only have the capacity to move 40 mmt at best....

And why do farmers think building storage is a gold star accomplishment. ....

Elevators make money on elevation....

Farmers elevate once into the bin and once out ....plus they should earn a ROI on storage....

If you want the actual numbers www.grainmonitor.ca has all the info on the shipments, unloads, vessels etc. Most recent week there were just under 9000 car unloads or roughly 810,000MT. It's quite transparent if you know where to look.

Last year grain exports were 41 million but that doesn't include oil/meal/flour exports that are processed in Canada and the byproducts are shipped. I would also suspect by the amount of spot 'specials' and delivery calls for grain that the system would seem to have the capacity to move what was produced this year. I can't see a reason why a business would 'pay up' in harvest if they didn't have a readily available outlet for what they are buying.

[bucket]

1.2 to 1.9 mmt of floating space indicates a demand for our products......although backing the system up is a much desired strategy....

[farming101]

First 11 weeks of the crop year have seen 11,372,100 tonnes shipped from primary and process elevators.
Some of that would have been by truck.
5,370,400 tonnes have been received at west coast ports.
According to Quorum the last 2 weeks have seen 29 vessels arrive or due. At first glance you would have to think logistics are terrible.

[Agvocate]

1.2 to 1.9 mmt of floating space indicates a demand for our products......although backing the system up is a much desired strategy....

So elevators make money elevating grain, as per your previous post. So the desired strategy of the elevators is to back the system up, so they can have less elevations and pay increased costs in demurrage to railways and vessels? As for the floating space, or vessels in port, don't mistake that for new demand. They are there to load something that has already been purchased, and again having them sit is just incremental cost's.

[bucket]

My point being grain cos make money doing what they do.....I am just saying there is costs involved in handling grain at the farm....no different.....

I stated my opinion wrong.

[MBgrower]

the trade is talking 21 million tonnes of canola this year. a local crusher was bidding $12 for spring delivery. mmmh?

[SASKFARMER3]

I might up mine to 18.7. But 21 is dreaming.

12 is where it should be, sorry your 10.5 normal every day price and a special is 11, just not cutting it. Good try

[brs]

Too bad more wouldn't hold out for 12. Had a call last week special of 11 for Dec delivery not many tons left. The next day had a call from same place 11 special was immediate delivery still never sold.