Canola yields again

[Hamloc]

In the last Western Producer there was a short article on Statscan yield forecasts, I know this is old news but one sentence in the article caught my eye. Statscan pegs the crop at 19.7 mmt but this barely caused a blip in the price because many in the trade are expecting a larger 20 mmt crop. All I can say is there must be some good crops somewhere certainly not here. Yields in my area are 20-40% below last year. Talked to a buddy up in Manning, it was really dry in their area yields down there as well. Can someone explain to me where the 20 mmt canola crop will come from?

[SASKFARMER3]

Manitoba. Oh wait check the yield data on guys web sites from weigh wagons.

Swan 52 57 62 48 54

Ah that’s normal to maybe a bit low,

Check other areas

It’s all billshit

[Partners]

Lots of carry over..Guys didn't empty the bins at 12.00..were waiting for 15 because of drought.
Yields 10 b/a above average here..

[Sheepwheat]

I have been reading on here a fair bit. One thing to remember that is probably hard to fathom for most of you open prairie, dry area people, is that for the first time in 11 or 12 years, millions of acres of wet areas have finally come back into full production. The crops in some of these areas have been outstanding, after being an area of half crops for over a decade. In our area, this has been the best growing season since 2003. Drier is good for this area. Hard to fathom, probably, but it is true.

So with all respect, I do not see the numbers that far out, because there are these millions of acres that were under producing for years, coming back with a vengeance this year finally.

[danny W1M]

Very good point Sheepwheat, that exact situation applies to our area too. Big crops on reclaimed land.
Too dry is better than too wet here.

[farming101]

22.8 million acres in 2017, 20 million in 2016

FWIW(nothing) I don't think there is 19.7 MMT and that is why the price has held up better than last year at this time.
But there sure could be the 18.2 MMT that was the AAFC forecast for Sept. That would allow for a bu/acre yield over 11% less than last year. Harvest isn't done yet. Have to wait and see.

The final number for 2016-17 isn't even in yet

Yields over the scales north of 60 bpa sure helps the average

Lots of Canola seeded in this area

2016 Canola production in SK

[fjlip]

Agree, it was very yellow, like 60% of acres in that area, we are in it, NE of QL.
Canola likes COOL till it feezes, that would be here, cool and usually wet. N AB is even better though.

[seabass]

Not sure how many of u receive twitter updates from pioneer seed reps but the yield results all sound good. Not sure if thats field scale or small strip results. They don't help our cause if they are only reporting results on small scale plots. Whole fields tell a different story.

[ajl]

Better not be 20 MT of canola, otherwise watch for $6 canola next year. Unseeded acres here all going in canola in '18. There is still land coming into production from hay and pasture and clearing bush coming into production every year around here. Making new farmland every day.

[WiltonRanch]

Better not be 20 MT of canola, otherwise watch for $6 canola next year. Unseeded acres here all going in canola in '18. There is still land coming into production from hay and pasture and clearing bush coming into production every year around here. Making new farmland every day.

As farmers get older they are dumping their cows and breaking grass. More getting broke here every year. Rail and handling capacity better ramp up cause she's gonna be a cluster. Funny cause when I started 15 or so years ago cows were what kept everyone hanging on. Grain was in the shitter. Now every poor chunk is getting farmed. This stuff is all cyclical and will change maybe but that generation is just about done who would bugger with cows. Around here canola yields are everywhere. My stuff was alright 40+ avg but a lot of guys saying under 35. Depends on date seeded. Early got crusted and fleabeatle damage. Too late and heat and wind or real late frost.

[furrowtickler]

Some good yields in places yes , but the later seeded stuff is showing some big signs of frost damage . A lot of that big canola crop was green when the first frost shot the entire northern grain belt 3 weeks ago . Something to think about

[seabass]

I agree Wilton. Dad said the seventies were like that. Price of grain went up and cows went bye bye. Then the eighties came and the cows came back

[farmaholic]

Same here..... so many views and so few posts.

[HappyFarmer]

Lots of carry over..Guys didn't empty the bins at 12.00..were waiting for 15 because of drought.
Yields 10 b/a above average here..

Really???!! You believe guys carried that much over???? I cant see it.

[HappyFarmer]

Better not be 20 MT of canola, otherwise watch for $6 canola next year. Unseeded acres here all going in canola in '18. There is still land coming into production from hay and pasture and clearing bush coming into production every year around here. Making new farmland every day.

All due respect that's bullshit. 20 million does not mean 6 bucks. No even possible. We moved 20 million tonnes into the system last year and can easily do it again this year if not more.

They market is not hanging on because they think the crop is smaller, it's hanging on cause the demand is there!!