Something funny with HRS! Deliver now! we need your late oct grain to fill a train

[danny W1M]

SF3, of course this is the usual, bend over the barrel time of year. There's always guys that have to haul, but maybe this year more are trying to hold out longer and not take the barrel option. No shortage of quality, but many growers sense there is a shortage of Canadian grain, For Whatever That's Worth(when it comes to global supplies and price)

[fjlip]

Good luck to all trying to beat the system... they can wait longer than ALL growers, so they win.

[Rareearth]

Thanks for the post.

I wonder all the time how the grain terminals measure or track " speculative purchase contracts"?

For example:
In September they have a storage capacity of say 25,000 tons, its the end of July how many tons total would they contract with farmers? They typically buy canola, wheat, peas, barley.
- Would they contract 100% capacity for the 4 crops or more, hoping 1 or two of them have good movement, and the grower contracts that aren't moveing can wait ?
- say it's a Viterra terminal, they manager likely isn't privy to the head office trader sales and speculative position. Do they fill up hoping a train shows up on a loose promis from head office - with partner railway excuse "the train didn't show up, not sure when now"


The banking and insurance companies have regulatory and monitored leverage maximums. I wonder if some how the grain companies should be limited in there speculative positions, grower contracts tonage vs sales for the same delivery time frame. The grain companies would be mad as hell, limiting or manageing their businesses but a the same time it would stabilize and provide consistency market wide. Ship could be ordered and loaded against real sales, trains would pick up and deliver grain to west coast against real orders and sales- better efficiencies, local farmers could plan and cash flow farm needs better, and grain terminals inland would call with two days to deliver notice and 3 hour lineups.

Farmers take all the risk where prices are always pushed down to make the grain companies position work(where they don't loose money). Farmers don't need or want grain companies to speculate for us.

Maybe I just don know and the CGC does monitor purchases and sales, one step up from grain delivered or shipped.

[saskshafe]

I have wheat contracts with two elevators for October. Have #1-13.5. Asked about delivery and was told that lower protein like I have won't be moving for a bit. I thought I had exactly what they used to want. They said anything under 14 protein is a little slower to move.WTF???

[furrowtickler]

Could it be that there is a lot oh hrsw out there under 14 and not a lot over 14 ?
And the hrsw out there over 14 has very tight hands?

[HappyFarmer]

Could it be that there is a lot oh hrsw out there under 14 and not a lot over 14 ?
And the hrsw out there over 14 has very tight hands?

Exaclty..if SF3 has 14.0 plus pro or high I almost guarantee that's why they want it. Anything that is on paper that is higher pro they want it now and if you don't haul...they are quite pissy about it.

Before last weeks crash heard values in Southern Alberta as high as 9.25 Dec for a 1/16.5 pro.

If I'm sitting on high pro(which I'm not!), meaning 14.0 or higher I'm sitting on that and delivering my lowest pro possible against my contracts. They won't like that but to bad.

[Guest]

Could it be that there is a lot oh hrsw out there under 14 and not a lot over 14 ?
And the hrsw out there over 14 has very tight hands?

there's a lot around here under 10