Durum Prices In The Shitter ...... AGAIN!!!

[bucket]

Went to the dollar converter 7.40 in 1973 is 40 bucks today....

[Kinger]

Majority of durum growers this year got an extra 5bu/ac in yield over what they were expecting.

More yield reduces target prices.

Reason it keeps dropping is because farmers are selling at those prices. Not every farmer in Canada thinks durum is gonna be $10/bu and before it get's to $10 a lot more are gonna sell there durum.

Graincos will lower the price until farmers stop selling.

Your not fighting the grainco your fighting the guy who got more yield and thus can afford to sell at a lower price.

South Sask low yields high price targets
North Sask high yields low price targets

I'm probably oversimplifying it or just wrong. 50/50

[sumdumguy]

But Kinger, I didn't think the Durum growing area goes much north of # 1 highway?

[Guest]

But Kinger, I didn't think the Durum growing area goes much north of # 1 highway?

it doesn't

[dave4441]

But Kinger, I didn't think the Durum growing area goes much north of # 1 highway?

There is tons of durum north to Kindersley and Rosetown (150-200 KMS north of #1). Our farm is a 100 KMS north of #1 and I don't recall our farm ever growing HRS. It's that or canary.

[farmaholic]

I think we need to pick soil zones as the boundaries to grow durum. Brown is good, dark brown is good,. moist dark brown is borderline, anything black...is a gamble.

I also think the gamble in all the soil zones now is fusarium...its everywhere and if conditions are right you will end up with crap because it seems so susceptible....but you can app fungicides twice ;-).

Obviously this year would have been a safe year to grow it in areas with a lack of moisture during heading and early flowering....hindsight! Fusarium grading tolerances need to be relaxed....don't let a perfect year for growing durum lull you into a false sense of security that that ugly grading factor is waiting to kick you in the nuts again....and then there's vomitoxin....the non-grading factor.

[Kinger]

Durum will be grown where ever guys think it will make money.

They saw the decent prices and good yields last year and so more guys switched from red spring to durum. Red spring prices last year didn't help that either.

In order for durum to get above $10/bu you'd need to see all of those guys switch back to red spring.

Only reason is if the return on durum gets low enough or red spring return gets good enough.

Only way to increase price is either reduce supply or raise demand.

[farming101]

Ya its all good. Adequate supplies

Last year way over a million tonnes more than usual wound up in the feed bunk
Likely some of the carryover is similar quantity.
Exports are 57% higher than last year at this time. Domestic disappearance way up over last year. Production 50% of last year(that will likely be raised in future estimates). Should be headed for a very low carryout number.

[Kinger]

If low carryout results in a rise of before seeding prices. Acres on durum go up. Depending on the growing season. Not likely gonna do prices any big favors.

If every other farmer starts growing a new crop because the price was good. That commodities price will adjust to the increase in supply.

Manitoba will be seeing this with soybean basis soon.

Durum it's already happening.

[farming101]

Durum might have competition from HRS in flex areas next year