Nov Canola

[farming101]

Quick trip to the 470's? Have no idea really but that would be down to long term support of the steady trend higher over the last few years

Mostly Canola to come off around here. Quite a lot

[bigzee]

Traders were right she was a whopper of a crop.
Getting screwed again, oh well we are past the point of feeling the pain.

[errolanderson]

For what it's worth . . . major support for Nov seen around $472.50/MT (IMO), but loonie also appears ripe to break below 80 cents U.S. which is supportive.

Bank of Canada double-thinking about rate hikes slowing Canada's economy into 4th quarter. Small business tax reform and Bombardier spat also not bullish Cdn dollar. USD now oversold? . . . .

[errolanderson]

USDA quarterly stocks released this morning supportive to soybeans. Loonie also getting slammed . . . breaking below 80 cents again. These factors offering canola price support today.

[4GFarms]

Hey errol, where do you yhink canola futures are going? I think higher but it seems range bound 490-500 for the moment. Any signs of potentially higher? Thanks

[errolanderson]

4G . . . please take as an opinion, but this morning's USDA stocks report and fallout in the loonie suggests a near-term cash bid recovery into next week. Jan soybeans might power above $10/bu once again on this tighter stock data. Technical buying . . . .

As for the loonie, not a good trade week for Canada plus Trump is trying to cut taxes while Canada is trying to hike them. This is catching the attention of global currency traders.

No grain market is a runaway train upward (given unsettled global economies), but this could trigger some local bid strength over the next few days.

[4GFarms]

Thanks for the insight Errol. I would expect the the loonie to retrace lower as well. I think there was a false indicaction that the economy was moving at a better clip than what is actually happening. Lots of people in payment trouble now. The USDA is so hard to predict there direction of info but it seems to always be in the direction of keeping a lid on the prices with higher (record) inventories. Thanks errol, may just ride it out for a bit to see where canola ends up

[Rareearth]

And I though Trump was telling JT what to do

[furrowtickler]

Thx Errol , good info 👍.
It seems that a few on here were right for a while about crop yields .
Beans finding gains , canola , green peas.
At the end of the day , stocks will be tight regardless of the Russian invasion of massive amounts of grains. At the end of the day one exporting nation will not , not replace the shortfall of 4-5 . Just saying , excuses can run high at full harvest , then realization sets in , enter stage left .
Yes in some areas , yields were better than thought , but others not, and the big yield areas are going to struggle with something called Mother Nature now .
Sorry but the absolute b/S of the likes of Squire and others was just too much on fantastic yields regardless of no rain.