Canola Marketing

[newguy]

You may be correct, but it makes a big difference which third is which, 1/3 of 60 is twice as much as 1/3 of 30(with apologies to captain obvious). Are most of the disasters in the historically poor yeilding areas? I would call much of central alberta a disaster, and historically high yeilding.

If all acres have equal weight then crop is 72.66 % of last year. Don't think it is quite that bad.

Last year there was not the difference in South sask yields compared to else where that there normally is.Acres are up huge so that is the only thing bringing up production numbers.But I feel production will still be lower than last year by quite a bit.

[fjlip]

Talking locking bins is like herding cats, might go up till first guys sell... bills need to be paid, same every year, farmer selling. Divided we are, the market knows us well.

[farmaholic]

Talking locking bins is like herding cats, might go up till first guys sell... bills need to be paid, same every year, farmer selling. Divided we are, the market knows us well.

That $14 target would send quite the message.

We all have our own distinct farms to manage. Not everyone can dig in their heels for ever and that is ok. We all have different profit points too. Not all farms are made from the same cookie cutter that's for sure.
I will have to keep remembering not everyone in Western Canada had a sub thirty bu/ac canola crop and will have to keep my pricing expectations realistic. I definitely won't be as profitable as alot of other canola growers this year, not my turn I guess.

I will have to be like Stats Can and rob a little of last year's margin to make up for this year's poorer results.

[Hopalong]

Agree that lock the bins has a catchy emotional appeal to some of us but is not a good marketing tool.

[bucket]

A lot of canola growers booked prices on a percentage of their expected yields....that percentage may have changed....gotta let that get pushed thru the system....

And then there is the new numbers on the the sides of combines that have to be smelled. ....or inhaled....

[vvalk]

Of the last 8 years, only once has the Final production number been less than Stat's Can August production estimates. They took up 2016 production 1.17 million tones in this report as their previous numbers couldn't support the COPA crush as well as CGC posted exports for the year. With the crop likely at 19.5-20 million there will be demand but at current canola/bean spreads there is more money in crushing beans. Expect we need to see a sustained rally in beans before canola can start to move.

Let's think this through. The more they revise last years crop up the better. They still used it all so the more the better. Basically there's is little to no carry over so almost of this years demand needs to come from this crop. Sask3 is right. The big crops this year are equal to last years. There really isn't anywhere where the crop is bigger then last years and many if not most have smaller crops. Even areas in northern Alberta where it is wet the heat and wind took 5-10% of the yield out. Add in the drought. The irrigation yields in southern Alberta are down a fair bit from last year due to the wind and heat. That should be a sign that this crop just isn't that big. They can also talk about Manitoba all they want. Still only 15% of the crop

[vvalk]

My canola crops west of Lethbridge are 40% of last years and it's a big area east from me all the way to Manitoba border

[bucket]

Vvalk

Just curious and you don't have to answer. ....but how much would you presell on a percentage basis on an average crop?


How does that percentage change when you have a year like this show up?

The canola that's booked still has to make it to the elevator ....once that's taken care of then how do the elevators get it if the disappearance is larger than expected....and it has to be if they keep revising previous crops up....while this crop gets smaller....

[vvalk]

Vvalk

Just curious and you don't have to answer. ....but how much would you presell on a percentage basis on an average crop?


How does that percentage change when you have a year like this show up?

The canola that's booked still has to make it to the elevator ....once that's taken care of then how do the elevators get it if the disappearance is larger than expected....and it has to be if they keep revising previous crops up....while this crop gets smaller....

We will pre sell if the prices are right up to half and sometimes none. Tris year with the drought I will be about half though a bit higher with unpriced basis. I know canbra in Lethbridgeessentially ran otbof supply just before new crop. They were getting it but it was tough sledding

[parsley]

I'm impartial.

But I have car travelled some areas in the Southeast and have seen some canola crops that are simply breathtakingly heavy. Thick. High. I blinked.

For what it's worth. Pars.

[furrowtickler]

One thing to think about as well ....
a lot of canola that has been cut the past two weeks has dried fast and premature in swath with warm temps and steady winds . Canola is smaller and some guys lost yield due to shrinkage
Also now the canola is dry but the Center of the swaths are still like rubber and pods are not breaking apart even with tighter concave and higher rotor speeds . But guys are going anyway maybe not realizing how much is getting lost out the back . Some closer checking around here and combine have stopped even in canola that is dry , low green and going through good . Full pods going right through. Lexions seems to be getting all pods but not the others . At least that's the story in this area.
We had our 9240 case concaves down to 4 mil and rotor up to 750 and we're still eaving pods . We just left it for now
Losses were 4-5 bus .
It will be better in 3-4 days , but some guys still given er . It's variety specific either. It's just not ready if down only 8 - 10 days . Again canola dry and below 1% green but pods in Center of swath still like rubber .
Usually we leave it for 2 weeks but we were done most of the wheat and heard others going so we gave it a try .
Like I said many others are finding the same issue in all types of varieties all around here . Just have to wait and be patient.