Canola Marketing

[Kinger]

Bored of reading sask politics post so i figured i'd start something a bit more interesting.

What do you guys think on canola? Think there is some upside? Downside? Think a magical canola fairy is gonna come and steal it all while wearing a Ralph Goodale mask?

Just curious what everyone else was thinking.

[Guest]

Bored of reading sask politics post so i figured i'd start something a bit more interesting.

What do you guys think on canola? Think there is some upside? Downside? Think a magical canola fairy is gonna come and steal it all while wearing a Ralph Goodale mask?

Just curious what everyone else was thinking.

Luckily for you youre not faced with the tax increases farmers are this year
Im bored of listening to lying assholes telling us drought doesnt matter and that there is an average crop out there when they have absolutely nothing at stake . Im sick of them telling us that the canola crop is ok and that the pipeline is not empty
As far as the canola price , if it isnt $12 by spring i will be very surprised
If you dont like my f$&king posts , its real simple , dont read them , as i will do with yours

[sumdumguy]

No one can convince me that this is not a drought. The proof is in the grain tank, for sure. I too will be very surprised if the prices don't sore. No rain, none since June 14 with 30 degree plus days every week were relentless. Lock the bins and we'll see what happens.

[Braveheart]

I think the canola market is range bound awaiting fresh news. I see upside potential mainly because demand for canola is solid. Once harvest pressure is gone prices should climb.

Canada's canola crop will likely come in under expectations as well. Not here though. First field was 56 bus/acre.

[farmaholic]

Fall phishing season must have opened. Ok I'll bite because it was a lean year here and a long winter ahead, I'm not one to turn down a free meal even if it is bait!

I realize not everyone suffered the same fate as we did here but I think the heat and dryness took a bigger toll than the trade thinks.

It's harvest happy hour now.

Wait till all the low hanging fruit gets picked.

There might be some strong locks on bin doors that will take some big keys(prices) to open!

[SASKFARMER3]

All these big hitter with 56 or 60 what did you have last year I bet the same. Now drought guys have 20 they had big yields last year so the math the crop can't be that big it's mathamatically impossible. This new math is ruining our county Manitoba seeded less acres canola and thy aren't getting 200 BPA to help boost the dry areas with 20 to 28.

But what do I know. Crushers will be out by end of June. Going to be a long Shut down next summer.

Demand is strong yet.

We're being played.

June delivery will be worth it this year.

Have a good one.

[bucket]

Guys that have straight cut canola for years find they can't keep canola til July. ....

[commonsense]

Of the last 8 years, only once has the Final production number been less than Stat's Can August production estimates. They took up 2016 production 1.17 million tones in this report as their previous numbers couldn't support the COPA crush as well as CGC posted exports for the year. With the crop likely at 19.5-20 million there will be demand but at current canola/bean spreads there is more money in crushing beans. Expect we need to see a sustained rally in beans before canola can start to move.

[Kinger]

Yeah, yields in MB definitely aren't going to be able to make up the the loses that have been projected in drought areas.

I am going to be curious what sask yields come in as at the end of the day. Been hearing guys are impressed with them so far. Not great but a lot better than the disaster many were expecting.

The thing i think some are forgetting is how much of last years canola is out there. Most likely sub 3% of the total production. That means this crop is gonna have to carry us all the way through till next year. June/July may be a pretty nice pricing area.

[newguy]

I believe a third of the acres are 50 % of last year.A third is 65% and a third is the same.Now.someone with this year's and last year's can do the math and that is my prediction.

[biglentil]

Yeah, yields in MB definitely aren't going to be able to make up the the loses that have been projected in drought areas.

I am going to be curious what sask yields come in as at the end of the day. Been hearing guys are impressed with them so far. Not great but a lot better than the disaster many were expecting.

The thing i think some are forgetting is how much of last years canola is out there. Most likely sub 3% of the total production. That means this crop is gonna have to carry us all the way through till next year. June/July may be a pretty nice pricing area.

Ya lots of rose coloured glasses on I guess 25 bushel canola is a pleasant surprise for those expecting 15. Sick of hearing industry members trying to pat our backs on how its not bad at all. For a massive area of our province its a ****ing disaster plain and simple.

[Guest]

Of the last 8 years, only once has the Final production number been less than Stat's Can August production estimates. They took up 2016 production 1.17 million tones in this report as their previous numbers couldn't support the COPA crush as well as CGC posted exports for the year. With the crop likely at 19.5-20 million there will be demand but at current canola/bean spreads there is more money in crushing beans. Expect we need to see a sustained rally in beans before canola can start to move.

every co. has an $11 premium here ? I think it's been moving already ??

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I believe a third of the acres are 50 % of last year.A third is 65% and a third is the same.Now.someone with this year's and last year's can do the math and that is my prediction.

You may be correct, but it makes a big difference which third is which, 1/3 of 60 is twice as much as 1/3 of 30(with apologies to captain obvious). Are most of the disasters in the historically poor yeilding areas? I would call much of central alberta a disaster, and historically high yeilding.

If all acres have equal weight then crop is 72.66 % of last year. Don't think it is quite that bad.

[Partners]

If the total is down 25%.then we need 14.00 to make as much dollars as last yr..
We put a 14 dollar target in this morning..RP says why..because it will be there in June..time to screw with there minds..like they do ours.

[Guest]

If the total is down 25%.then we need 14.00 to make as much dollars as last yr..
We put a 14 dollar target in this morning..RP says why..because it will be there in June..time to screw with there minds..like they do ours.

that's what we all should do , partners . all our high acid is locked in for that and it is the best looking canola