Canola Forecasts Wide Ranging!

[mbratrud]

My guess is 1/3 of the acres average 25bpa and 2/3 average 40bpa. That puts me at around 17.9mmt

[LEP]

Bahaha. Our area got 4 tenths from about June 20th to date. I expect maybe a 30 bu crop.

I have driven across the province a few times and alittle in Manitoba. That is what I am basing my guesstimate on.

[Klause]

Alberta and Manitoba better have masisve crops because I've been from Carrot River and 35 miles north of PA to Adsinaboia Swift Current and Estevan.


We are in one of the garden patches well on the fringes of it but we will be below last year for sure. Small areas like north of PA and around Lake Lenore and Spalding look. Ery good... But large areas like highway 16 to US border look horrible and if guys think that canola will run 30... Haha...

There's gonna be lots of 10-20 bpa in Sask. I'll peg Sask average at 31. If it freezes first week of September 26 or 27 bpa

[Ache4Acres]

he

Did a bit more crop inspecting today as we wait for the wheat. I can say crops farther south from us are worse yet...hard to imagine but there will be lots of 15 bushel canola south of Hwy 33. Most Flax is ugly beyond comprehension as well.

I guess you always consider yourself lucky because it's always worse Somewhere

[furrowtickler]

Half of Alberta had 35 deg temps during flowering, huge crop there impossible

[SASKFARMER3]

high heat and flowering make for big yields by experts.

[furrowtickler]

Even the canola under pivot in Lethbridge has taken a big hit with flower blast . Let alone canola on dry land acres .
But hey , canola crop will be huge in Alberta ...... lol
I think some experts need to get out of their office / truck and go see what flower blast looks like, see alll the blanks then go studdy the canola council web page on the effect on yield loss .
Not trying to be an ass , but wtf is any common sense any more ? Canola flower blast happens at temps above 28 deg and is exaggerated when over night temps do not fall below 14.
Did all these experts forgot that July even existed in 1/2 of Alberta ??

[bucket]

Furrow

I can't see anything over 14 mmt....but I have seen the blank main stems and very little on the branches.....

[mbratrud]

Does it really matter? Canola will be in a rationing situation with little carryout. Anything under 19MMT is going to make a tight S&D. But upside will be capped by broader World commodity prices.

Is there any reason to sell canola under $12? I can't see it. But it's tough to imagine a lot higher than that.

There seems to be room for Canola Soy spread to narrow, but at some point demand gets filled with cheaper alternatives. My targets 12 bucks before I let much go.

Believe me around Weyburn there is a lot of crappy canola but I can't see 15MMT production Western Canada wide yet. If that's the case there will be fireworks.

We will all be a lot smarter in 30 days.

In the meantime I hope not to many guys drop their pants and accept horrible basis levels being shown today.

The problem is there really aren't many great options for cashflow. Velocity of upside market movement will largely influenced by farmer selling.

IMHO

[Guest]

Whats use of guessing , youll never know what it was or is ?? We just spend all the money and do all the work , not for us to know . The leaches living off us pretty well know exactly whats out there already and its not pretty ......

[farmaholic]

On my farm I hate to guess what it will yield.... but every time we walk in to stage it for swathing.... I realize how shitty it is....better than some but still pretty shitty. AND I need to remember that not everyone had these growing conditions.... some were worse, some better. So if I think the market needs to react to what happened only on my farm...I am in for some possible disappointment. Like Bratrud said... in afew weeks everyone will be smarter. I can lock the bins, and will. Harvest can be a horrible time to sell grain unpriced off the combine.

[Rareearth]

And if we really want to kill the crop we are very close to that time of year.

It been many years since we have had a early F word... Frost. Sept 14 is our average first.

All crop in our area (exception soybeans) would be minimally impacted. A august frost, might.

This timing will have a much bigger impact on yields, grades, and prices than... if... things remain normal to perfect.

Good luck to every one, let it be October again

[biglentil]

Im takin the under 15mm mt. Its worse than it looks and looks bad. The narrow band of good crops is alot smaller than the ugly.

[SASKFARMER3]

Big lentil I agree it's getting lower. After driving again from Saskatoon to regina and back to the lake. Wow is the canola crop ugly. The dry down is happening and it's ugly. Most will have wheat that our yields canola by lots.

[GDR]

Big lentil I agree it's getting lower. After driving again from Saskatoon to regina and back to the lake. Wow is the canola crop ugly. The dry down is happening and it's ugly. Most will have wheat that our yields canola by lots.

Forgive me if I should know this but somebody else made a comment similar to this the other day about wheat vs canola yields. Is normal yields higher on canola than wheat in SK? Good normal yields here are 60 canola, 100 cps or 85 hrs, would never have higher canola than wheat. Canola will average under 40 for sure here, likely closer to 30.