Wheat !

[danny W1M]

Flooding in the soft winter wheat areas due to Tropical storm Arlene.
Frost in the hard red winter areas, Kansas and Nebraska.
Severe flooding forecast from Texas panhandle all the way to middle of Illinois, 7-13 inches
Hard freeze in the Hard spring wheat areas, good percentage planted already, shallow planting now, remember.

[furrowtickler]

The next 10 days will be interesting all through the central North American seeding areas - from Missouri through the Peace country .
They will try to keep a lid on any rallies by talking record yields after that lol

[seldomseen]

I just heard Drew and he said the mid west US will get huge amounts of rain over the next week.

[blackpowder]

We've needed a spring rally to start hedging.
But am becoming cautious myself regarding what gets seeded when.
Does the noise on US trade, nafta etc, pose a price risk? How large and long?
Mostly a grains question from my perspective.

[Guest]

The next 10 days will be interesting all through the central North American seeding areas - from Missouri through the Peace country .
They will try to keep a lid on any rallies by talking record yields after that lol

yea I can see record yields here already , lotsa water , lol. that is if we can get it in the ground

[malleefarmer]

Few problems in Europe weather wise but fact remains theres about 1 and half years production of wheat in the world at the moment maybe 1.25

[danny W1M]

Sorry mallee, I call BS to that,,,,,1.25 years supply???

[blackpowder]

Remember thats all wheat everywhere.

[jamesb]

Yes we maybe are starting to see news that can help wheat prices but yes there is record wheat stocks in the world and record carry out.

This from USDA earlier this month.

WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 30 million bushels on lower feed and residual use which more than offsets a slight import reduction. At 1,159 million bushels, ending stocks are projected to reach a near 30-year high. Feed and residual use is lowered 35 million bushels to 190 million which reflects lower-than expected disappearance for the December-February and September-November quarters, as indicated by March 1 and revised December 1 stocks from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. The import change is based on the pace to date with reductions for soft red winter and durum.

Global 2016/17 wheat supplies are raised 1.7 million tons due to higher projected beginning stocks and a 0.3-million-ton increase in production. The change to beginning stocks stems from a 1.4-million-ton reduction in 2015/16 domestic consumption, primarily in the EU. World exports are lowered 0.3 million tons led by 0.5-million-ton decreases each for Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Partly offsetting are higher projected exports for the EU and Ukraine. Total global consumption for 2016/17 is lowered 0.6 million tons to 740.8 million with a 1.0-millionton decrease in the United States, more than offsetting a small net increase for foreign countries. With supplies rising and use declining, global ending stocks are raised 2.3 million tons to 252.3 million

[jamesb]

Lower US winter wheat plantings plus planting delays this spring in the US will help the situation some but there is a pile of grain for the world to eat through. I expect the stock to use will look much better a year from now as the market place send the message to growers.
I believe the dollar going lower over the softwood lumber tariff news and some bullish news on production issues may give a good opportunity to lock in some new crop wheat at decent prices, not what we have seen in the past bull market but ok. Also bear in mind this , What would our prices look like if we had a 80 cent dollar?