Wheat !

[danny W1M]

Flooding in the soft winter wheat areas due to Tropical storm Arlene.
Frost in the hard red winter areas, Kansas and Nebraska.
Severe flooding forecast from Texas panhandle all the way to middle of Illinois, 7-13 inches
Hard freeze in the Hard spring wheat areas, good percentage planted already, shallow planting now, remember.

[furrowtickler]

The next 10 days will be interesting all through the central North American seeding areas - from Missouri through the Peace country .
They will try to keep a lid on any rallies by talking record yields after that lol

[seldomseen]

I just heard Drew and he said the mid west US will get huge amounts of rain over the next week.

[blackpowder]

We've needed a spring rally to start hedging.
But am becoming cautious myself regarding what gets seeded when.
Does the noise on US trade, nafta etc, pose a price risk? How large and long?
Mostly a grains question from my perspective.

[Guest]

The next 10 days will be interesting all through the central North American seeding areas - from Missouri through the Peace country .
They will try to keep a lid on any rallies by talking record yields after that lol

yea I can see record yields here already , lotsa water , lol. that is if we can get it in the ground

[malleefarmer]

Few problems in Europe weather wise but fact remains theres about 1 and half years production of wheat in the world at the moment maybe 1.25

[danny W1M]

Sorry mallee, I call BS to that,,,,,1.25 years supply???

[blackpowder]

Remember thats all wheat everywhere.

[jamesb]

Yes we maybe are starting to see news that can help wheat prices but yes there is record wheat stocks in the world and record carry out.

This from USDA earlier this month.

WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 30 million bushels on lower feed and residual use which more than offsets a slight import reduction. At 1,159 million bushels, ending stocks are projected to reach a near 30-year high. Feed and residual use is lowered 35 million bushels to 190 million which reflects lower-than expected disappearance for the December-February and September-November quarters, as indicated by March 1 and revised December 1 stocks from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. The import change is based on the pace to date with reductions for soft red winter and durum.

Global 2016/17 wheat supplies are raised 1.7 million tons due to higher projected beginning stocks and a 0.3-million-ton increase in production. The change to beginning stocks stems from a 1.4-million-ton reduction in 2015/16 domestic consumption, primarily in the EU. World exports are lowered 0.3 million tons led by 0.5-million-ton decreases each for Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Partly offsetting are higher projected exports for the EU and Ukraine. Total global consumption for 2016/17 is lowered 0.6 million tons to 740.8 million with a 1.0-millionton decrease in the United States, more than offsetting a small net increase for foreign countries. With supplies rising and use declining, global ending stocks are raised 2.3 million tons to 252.3 million

[jamesb]

Lower US winter wheat plantings plus planting delays this spring in the US will help the situation some but there is a pile of grain for the world to eat through. I expect the stock to use will look much better a year from now as the market place send the message to growers.
I believe the dollar going lower over the softwood lumber tariff news and some bullish news on production issues may give a good opportunity to lock in some new crop wheat at decent prices, not what we have seen in the past bull market but ok. Also bear in mind this , What would our prices look like if we had a 80 cent dollar?

[bucket]

Send the wheat to Africa there are 20 million starving .....thar may get rid of the surplus unless that's not the goal of food production?

[farmaholic]

Can't send durum as food aide....its toxic poison! All 1.75-2 ppm of it you know! YAWN.....

[bigzee]

I grow durum as a cereal, but decided to put some red wht in this yr. Hope it will bring decent return! Durum as always yielded more and paid more, but with fuzz problems mounting thought I would spread out some of the risk. Wht can get fuzz but durum is more susceptible.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Few problems in Europe weather wise but fact remains theres about 1 and half years production of wheat in the world at the moment maybe 1.25

This is a topic that always frustrates me. Why is having reserves of a highly nutritious product which is a staple in humans diets( and animals), stores indefinitely and is needed as seed to start over again EVER considered to be burdensome?

I get that the market needs to send the signal to farmers to slow down or we would eventually have decades of excess, but is a year and a half of supply really burdensome? Crops failed for an entire year after mt Tambora, and didn't fully recover even after two years. There have been droughts that lasted for decades and even centuries. The little ice age caused crop failures and mass starvation for centuries. In the modern era of monocrops and international travel, disease could easily wipe out production worldwide for years on end. According to the experts right now, the world is on the brink of a major climate catastrophe, either warming or cooling depending on who you ask, but either side predicts mass crop failures to result. But having slightly more than a years supply of wheat is burdensome?

I realize that no trader is going to sit on a few contracts of wheat waiting for a once in a millenia event to make his fortune. I don't trust the incompetence of government to manage it. Alot of farmers already store for better prices, a few religious cults store food for the immenent disaster they are promised. Otherwise, I have no answer of how surplus should be stored for a rainy day, but the prospect of most of humanity starving after back to back crop failures seems uneccessary, when you could stock up on wheat at these prices? What would a decades supply of wheat or flour cost for an average family?

Edit to add, the value of one year of world wheat production (roughly 200 Billion USD by my math another source is about 110 Billion) is comparable to one days trading on the NYSE. Or about 80 days of US debt accumulation. SO stockpiling is not unweildly cost wise.

[farming101]

The most recent estimate is for the world to go through about 741 MMT of wheat this marketing year.
Ending stocks are forecast at around 252 MMT

The above statement is misleading because as has been stated wheat is being harvested around the world more or less continuously. All estimates taken to get a handle on the world wheat situation are based on moving targets.

The WASDE takes a snapshot of the situation at one point in time.

What does make a difference is how comfortable major wheat importing countries are with their stock levels and ease of replacing them. Also the fact that US wheat supplies are historically large and that happens to be where some of the major wheat exchanges are makes a difference. Russian wheat supplies are forecast higher for 2016-17 too. Russia could be the world's single biggest wheat shipper this year.
China's wheat stocks estimates are much higher. Very near to one year's worth of use in store. I have argued this shouldn't matter as much as it does but nothing to be done about it. And the fact is their imports are growing in the face of larger stocks. Maybe the stocks are not keeping too well?
Currency values and a country's domestic economies influence exports/imports.

Some farmers do hold wheat back but that gets tiresome.