Canola

[farmaholic]

Here's a neat thought, when's the last time canola traded at it's daily $30/t maximum?

For shits and giggles let's say it maxed out for 5 days straight (probably a better chance of winning Lotto Max)

Two days at $30/t
Two days at $45/t
One day at $60/t

$210/t or $4.76/bu.....more than wishful thinking, delusional thinking!

What would it take to get it to move the maximum at least one day? At the current prices I have a hard time believing it would move that much in one day...over several days? Easily do-able.

Interesting times.

The crush plants are a little far to be a viable delivery (by Tridem) option for us. Good for those within reasonable distance to them.

[farming101]

2013 bumper crop dropped the price 230/tonne over a nine month period
Small carryovers of 2011 and 2012 raised the price 185 over 9 months

Price advances usually have an organized character to them; price retreats are often chaotic

2016-17 carryover is forecast to be sufficient
World edible oil stocks are forecast to drop a little but that is countered by larger oilseed carryouts. This could mean crushers are not worried about supplies and are willing to stay current rather than stockpile

Cargill has traveled a long way out to pick up specialty canola. I would guess $11 picked up in the yard for southern areas right now for regular canola. I know, not in the ball park

Also, up till last Thursday anyway I would describe this rally as a short covering rally

[swinkler]

Hit $11.88 this morning, immediate delivery, here at one local terminal, zero basis. Think they have a train coming that needs filled. July target hit at $11.75 before I could pull it this morning. It's going to $12 IMO.

[lnjr]

Was $12 for may and June del at Adm Lloydminster this morning