Canola old crop bloodbath

[farming101]

Old crop being bludgeoned severely. Unwarranted IMHO
May open interest did an uptick yesterday. A little abnormal but not without precedent
CGC week 33 domestic disappearance numbers still don't add up

Puts have gone parabolic

[Braveheart]

Did I hear correctly that China had cancelled some purchases? What other fundamentals are impacting? Or is it also technical. Did funds exit some large positions?

[errolanderson]

Did I hear correctly that China had cancelled some purchases? What other fundamentals are impacting? Or is it also technical. Did funds exit some large positions?

China is now a in a credit crisis. Their lending rate between banks shot up this week. Not good news for resource-based countries like Brazil, Australia and Canada.

[crusher]

Errol,

When you say ""shot up", what does that mean? Going from 1.2% to 1.35?

[bucket]

It's just another marketing play in the book.

China will never let people go hungry....it will make the middle east look like playground....

[errolanderson]

Crusher, here's the story from Market Watch . . . . .

China's repurchase (repo) rate (interbank borrowing rate) shot to 5.5% on Tuesday, up from 3.85% on Monday. This will impact all commodities globally . . . .

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-economy-is-on-the-verge-of-a-painful-credit-crunch-2017-03-22

[crusher]

Thanks Errol, tis a significant butt squeeze. Lots of people around here wouldn't like that either.
Todd

[bgmb]

This is awesome prefect timing for markets to tank just before spring seeding and spring harvesting of canola. The more they go down now the quicker they will be shooting up in a couple weeks. The crop in the field is probably mostly a write off nobody is going to buy that spring thrashed shit.

[the big wheel]

Outstanding!!!

[iceman]

Blaming the china man so they can pay less !

Yes big wheeler ! Outstanding !!

You can also buy cheap wiseguy

If a wingman wants to take a flyer buying July with tight supplies and with this crop still out might be a good one to take


Iceman thinking of buying

[farming101]

Iceman, you have an entry point picked out?

Nothing's too clear after this quick drop. There are weak signals at 482-483 and 475 but nothing strong until 465. Cheap is only half way down. On sidelines looking for an uptrend first.

[Oliver88]

You referring to the July futures F101?

[farming101]

Correct

[farmaholic]

I've been so quiet on this issue you could hear a pin drop.....

My silence is revealing!

I don't wanna to talk about it!

[danny W1M]

Here all you chumps think canola went down, haha,
Maybe have a look at the crush margins !!!
Up nearly a buck a bushel over the last month.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/ICE_Canadian_Canola_Board_Margin_Index_Close_27385 0679.html

In fact, here's even a article about what's going on.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/Sharp_Futures_Drop_Sees_Canola_Crush_Margins_Rise_ 273851915.html


Just for those that can't copy a paste!

WINNIPEG, MB, March 23, 2017 (CNS Canada), Mar 23, 2017 (Commodity News Service Canada, Inc. via COMTEX) --

The Canadian Canola Board Margin Index, as posted by ICE Futures Canada, is a formula developed by the members of the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association (COPA).
Today Day Ago Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago
Mar 23/17 Mar 22/17 Mar 16/17 Feb 23/17 Mar 23/16
Cdn$ US$ Cdn$ US$ Cdn$ US$ Cdn$ US$ Cdn$ US$
May17 114.39 85.79 107.11 80.25 90.53 67.98 77.51 59.13 96.33 72.96
Jul17 113.13 84.85 106.22 79.58 91.20 68.49 79.73 60.82 96.17 72.84
Nov/Oct17 118.85 89.14 117.96 88.38 109.51 82.24 101.57 77.48 99.87 75.64
Nov/Dec17 120.99 90.75 119.93 89.85 111.81 83.96 104.49 79.71 103.04 78.04
Jan18 117.06 87.80 115.81 86.77 108.09 81.17 100.79 76.88 102.88 77.92
Mar18 113.86 85.40 112.81 84.52 105.29 79.07 99.30 75.75 102.08 77.32
May18 113.35 85.02 111.78 83.75 104.84 78.73 98.48 75.12 103.02 78.03