May Canola contract

[farming101]

Support at 503 then 499 then 493

"Rain doesn't mess with shiploading" Ya right

Not saying that the price is dropping because it can't get on to the ships but it isn't helping either
Timing of a rebound is getting out of sync. Might be after seeding now if it happens

Producer deliveries for week 32 were the lowest since August/16

[errolanderson]

China crush margins have turned negative this week. Need recovery in global veg oil prices for canola to recover (IMO).

[jdepape]

May canola getting hit with fund long liquidation. Since Mar 6 (when price last peaked), May OI is down close to 12,519 contracts. That pressures both flat price and spreads - May/July was 1.50 under on Mar 6, now at 4.80 under.
Stocks of canola in the system at record level (for this week) - as it has been almost all year.
Board crush margins are off 12.00 since Mar 6th - close to the lowest all crop year.
Canola vs beans - near the highest all crop year (is canola overpriced)?

Can't find a bullish thing in this market right now - futures or spreads.

Basis is holding its own and will gain even more support as futures decline and we get road bans.

IMHO

[farming101]

Thank you for your comments

[jdepape]

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