Fertilizer - N

[furrowtickler]

Been told by a few suppliers that Nitrogen may not be available if it has not been been already paid for and delivered.
Anyone else hear this ?
I know it did jump 25% or so in December. Then now all of a sudden the North American stocks will be out and maybe even short come spring .
I am not saying that it's true , don't really care we have it delivered but has anyone else heard this ? Have not seen anything posted on here yet, just the steady bombardment of green tech and unicorns cut and paste stuff here lately .

[Oliver88]

Haven't heard anything like this, although have noticed the price went up between July to December.

Was told there won't be NH3 shortages.

[Guest]

was told here there is absolutely no way they can keep up to all these big mid row banding drills and NH3 cultivators that will be in use this spring . it can't be produced or moved fast enough. although weather will be final decider. it is quite normal around here to have half of N on in fall between dry banding , nh3 and fines floating

[Partners]

Here they are saying anyone with single pass seeding will get juice first..cult.or applying ahead will have to wait.
Going to be a gong show..

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea I call bull shit! Juice is not going to have any issue!

[makar]

cps already told me about the nh3 shortage, they however are the only game in town and is more than urea. screw them.

[fjlip]

Wadena Pioneer can not get any urea for weeks, plants are going full bore, get in line they told them! No more prebuy, till supply?

[seabass]

Nh3 won't be short but trucks probably will. Good luck to those that rely on consistent delivery.

[Choice2U]

Worked in fert business for 7 years as a rep and played NH3, urea, sulfate and phospate GOD numerous times. Given the late harvest, my experience says 2 things:
Firstly - All NH3 storage facilities are usually filled going into fall for fall use....minimal fall application in many areas results in storage facilities full going into winter. Need NH3 production to produce urea but no where to store so sell into industrial market to keep plants operating to produce urea. This product is gone and cannot be replaced. Come spring, only product available is what's in storage plus what is produced per month. One can see this can pose a problem with supply.
Secondly - regulations on hauling are very restricting such as driver hours to fill dealer bullets. Also, the logistics (trucks, manpower, etc) to move the regular amount of NH3 in a season are set and cannot be ramped up just because of a bad fall. A tanker only hauls 28 Mt if memory is accurate and a bullet holds about 90 Mt.
Here's the problem: A bullet should do minimum of 1,500 Mt per year with many in the north doing 3,000+ Mt. If a tank only does 500Mt in the fall, it will require almost 90 loads to meet the 3,000 it usually does. That is 30 - 90 loads for every bullet from Alberta to Manitoba in a 4 week period (apr 15 - May 15) depending on how their fall was. Thus, expect allocations come spring.

[seabass]

My point exactly Choice!